All right, I got a very special guest today, Ben Cowan on the channel. Thanks for joining me, mate. How are you? >> Pretty good. Thanks for thanks for having me. And I know we've uh followed each other for a long time, so it's good to good to talk again. I think we we last spoke several years ago and like through video. >> Yeah, been a very very long time since then. I think you've had a few more kids. Congratulations. >> Thank you. Yeah, a few more. >> Just a few. Um but this video we'll chat about the trad geopolitical stuff markets do a bit of um you know armchair discussion about what we think is happening in the market and then we'll do another video on on Bitcoin. So stick around for that guys and of course go and check out Ben's channel which you probably already know about. Um markets now S&P 500 obviously hitting a fresh alltime high. What's your take on this current position of the market and how much more do you think is is left to go in this I guess what you'd be calling what a business cycle into alltime high before a correction? >> Yeah, I mean like I the truth is is no one really knows. I mean I my guess is that this business cycle will end within the next two year like within the next couple of years. Um that's what seems to make the most sense to me. I could absolutely be wrong about that. Um I just think that, you know, over the next couple of years, like basically we've already seen this energy spike, right? And and normally when you have an energy crisis in sort of a late business cycle environment, that's kind of what starts the process of the end of the business cycle, but you know as well as I do, I mean, the macro stuff takes a really long time to play out. I mean, I know you're you're pretty into real estate from what I remember. Um, and I think you do you talk about what like the 18.6 year real estate cycle. Is that right? >> So, >> yes. >> Yeah. I mean, so you know it probably even better than I do how long these these cycles can can take. And you know, I'm sitting here looking at it and saying, well, look, it it it looks like a late business cycle environment to me. And it's kind of looked like that for a while because normally what I would expect to happen in a late business cycle environment is what we've seen happen. You see higher risk assets bleed to lower risk assets. is like that that relative flight to safety. Um you see altcoins bleeding to Bitcoin. That's been going on for what like four or five years now. You see Bitcoin bleeding to stocks and despite how well stocks have done over the last few years, they're bleeding to gold. So >> you're basically just seeing um lower risk assets outperform which is a hallmark of of a of sort of like a late business cycle environment where you have only a few stocks making up a majority of the market. And that's why whenever the bare market does start, whenever the business cycle does finally start to end, the reason you can have a a brutal bare market or at least a draw down is because those stocks that went up so much, when they start to go down, it it it has a huge impact because so many people have so much of their portfolio in those few assets. And there's actually times even in the dot era, uh, even in the financial crisis, there's plenty of times where once the larger cap stuff starts to drop, some of the smaller cap stuff doesn't even drop that much because that stuff already got annihilated in the bull market. Um, >> and and actually, if you look at like the Russell against the NASDAQ, the one time in history where the Russell kind of durably outperformed the NASDAQ for a while was actually in the dotcom recession. it was when the the Russell kind of went up against low-risisk assets just because there was this massive concentration in those low-risisk assets for years. So I guess the question is is like you know figuring out when this business cycle is going to come to an end. My guess is that it's going to end you know like we will see the end of it within the next couple of years or so. I mean I've said before like late 2028, early 2029 at the absolute latest. Um but look, I I don't know. I mean, >> it's like hitting a peak. >> No, I think No, I think we'll probably hit a peak before then. Um I I think that the markets, you know, I I think it'll be really obvious that the business cycle has sort of ended by that point. Um >> yeah. Yeah. >> I think it could end as early as this year. uh like there's plenty of of sort of business cycles that top in say like September, October time frame, but you know, pre pre-election years are also the most bullish years as well for for markets. So, I don't want to completely dismiss that for 2027, but I do think that the the business cycle is sort of on its last legs, right? Like it it might have another six. I mean, it might have a few months, could be another year or so, but I do think the business cycle will end uh within the next couple of years. >> So, I guess I got heaps of questions on that, but how would you be playing the game into into that peak knowing that we've gone past a lot of that risk time and and some of that money's coming off the table? It's going into safer things, credits sort of moving away. >> Yeah. So, I'm so I still I'm actually despite thinking it's in a late business cycle environment, I actually have all my stocks and index funds. I mean, I did sell off some of the individual stocks, but I still have all the index funds. I haven't been buying any more index funds, uh, at least domestic index funds this year. And for like basically the last 10-15 years that I've been investing, I've always been overweight US index funds over international. But I've actually changed that this year. or really I changed it last year and it's become more pronounced this year because you're seeing you're actually seeing international funds do better than the United States and I I actually think that's going to continue probably for a while. I think you're starting to see a shift uh in the markets where you'll see international markets do better. You'll see emerging markets do better. I mean we've already been seeing that for the last year or so and I think it's going to continue. I think the other places that I'm >> even through, sorry to cut you off, even through a business cycle ending for the US, you're still looking at say emerging markets continuing their strength or at least holding ground during a downturn. Not sure. It's probably too far. >> I I think they will they'll probably go down against the US dollar if there's a big drop in the US, but they'll probably go up relative to the US, if that makes sense. And so, some of that is just me admitting like I don't know exactly when things are going to end. So, I don't just want to sit in 100% cash waiting for something that may or may not ever happen. Um, so a lot of it is just saying, look, I have to put my money somewhere. Where do I want to put it? And right now, I find a little bit more comfort comfort in having exposure to other markets than just the one, you know, just the S&P. Um, now within that, I I still think, you know, I've been pretty bullish on the manufacturing sector going into this year. Um, and I one of the main sectors that I would say the two sectors that I'm the most bullish on that I probably have larger positions in um are metals. So gold. Uh I had a big silver position last year. I don't have as much now, but I'd probably look to get to add to that. Um >> yeah, >> uranium. Um things like that I I think make a lot of sense. And then the final thing is uh is energy. You know, if you look at at prior business cycles, the energy market typically tops well after the S&P does. So, in the financial crisis, the stock market topped in October of 2007, but energy XLE didn't top until like May of 2008, you know, so you're talking almost like or about like seven or eight months later. and the.com crash, which I don't I'm not saying we're going to go into a.com crash, but I'm just sort of going through the last couple of business cycles. Um, with the dot crash, the stock market topped in March of 2000, but the energy market, the energy sector did not top until May of 2001. So I think for the energy sector to really to really drop, you have to be pretty sure we're actually in a recession, you know, because if we're not in a recession, the energy demands are only going to grow, especially with everything we need with AI and just, you know, the the everything related to energy or just like, you know, the global population expanding. We're going to need more energy. And and I just see that continuing until it's obvious we're in a recession, whereas the stock market tends to top before a recession occurs. I mean, honestly, it's usually the stock market topping and going down that then leads to the recession, not the other way around, right? Like, it's not a recession that leads to lower asset prices. It's lower asset prices then lead to layoffs, which then eventually lead to less demand, which then eventually lead to more layoffs, which that's sort of that feedback loop. But we're not in that feedback loop right now. you know, initial claims remain low, layoffs remain low, and you know, I mean, there's weakness in the labor market, but it's not it's not weak to the point where it's it's a recession. >> Yeah. So, overall, obviously, the the the age of us, we haven't really invested through a prior major business cycle. You know, if we're referencing late 90s, early 2000s, that sort of 2007 period. So now it's kind of like first time through, but things feel a lot like last time. Therefore, what do I do here? Well, we don't know if the top's in, you got to keep investing somewhere or at least put the money somewhere so it doesn't burn to inflation, but at the same time, be cautious because a lot of the signals are there that this time isn't necessarily different. >> Yeah, I mean I I agree and and that's the hard thing for for Yeah. I mean, the the last major recession, I'm not including the pandemic because it wasn't I mean, we basically just immediately came out of it. It wasn't long at all. Um, and you know, the last major recession in 200 2008, I was like I was 18 years old. I wasn't, you know, I was in college at the time and I wasn't really thinking about the markets to be completely honest. I know there's some people that are investing when they're in college, but I wasn't. I was just trying to get good grades and don't really care about the job market at the time. >> Playing chess and Yeah. Yeah. Yeah, I mean, yeah, that's what I was doing. Um, so I think a lot of it is just trying to like look at the history of stuff and try to avoid the mistakes that other people experienced in the past without having to feel the pain myself. But I have a feeling that no matter how much you prepare, how much anyone prepares, you're going to feel the pain of it. Like we're all going to feel the pain of it if and when it happens. Um it just you know some people might feel more pain than others if they're say like overleveraged and stuff that you know they could get wiped out. But I'm basically just trying to say look even with a recession over the long haul the markets are going to do fine. You know like 20 years from now I'm not going to care what what's happening in 2026. You know like I'll probably just look back and be like oh well everything I put in the S&P back then is up in 20 years. Um but but in the short term you know I I I'm mostly exposed to you know what I said earlier metals energy manufacturing international funds emerging markets and then some some in uh domestic markets uh as well but I I'm not I'm not adding to that at the current time. But look, I would I would look for signs like if with the S&P topping is a process, right? Like it if it if you go for several months without really making new highs, then you start to question, all right, maybe that is the top. But as long as we just keep putting in new all-time highs, it feels like a fool's errand to try to predict exactly when the top's going to be. >> And that can be half the pain. It's like, we know the top's coming, but what's the same from Peter Lynch? You know, more money's lost in trying to prepare for the top than the crash itself. >> So it's like we still got to be investing. Yeah. >> Yeah, it's true. It's true. I mean, and I I'll probably I mean, honestly, I'll probably buy Bitcoin again at the end of this year. Like, I bought some I bought some at the end of 2022. Um, not as much as I should have, to be completely honest, because the macro didn't really look that great. Um, but I I bought some Bitcoin back at the end of 2022, even though it felt like I felt like an idiot doing so. And I still, you know, in 2023, I think the the thing the biggest thing I got wrong in the last cycle was thinking that in 2023, Bitcoin would like come back down and and and kind of like retest the lows, but instead the market just ripped my face off, right, and just like went up. Uh, I mean, I was happy that I bought some, but I was like, "All right, well, I probably I probably should have bought more." So, I I think like I'll I'll probably end up adding to that position as well at the end of the year if the four-year cycle plays out, you know, and that's the big question is and we can talk about this in another video, but like that's kind of the the big question. >> Uh it's funny that you brought up last cycle, say 2022, especially say for trap and for Bitcoin because that was a period with your your business cycle where things were looking south. And I was going to bring up with you not on a video, but it was a time that I wasn't very happy with myself. I I had a massive go at you as well for getting you know I don't want to say that wrong because it's you're still making money in it right but I remember being an to you at that time and I'm very sorry for that but I've learned huge lessons from it >> where it's like you know just staying in lane >> what's that >> we all get things wrong and that was something I got wrong and then I I I'd like to think that I I did a pretty good job after that right like after But I I think the hard the hardest part was was um like seeing what was coming but just realizing I was too early, right? And but then realizing that there's there there's a huge difference between like being early and being right, you know, like you can be early, but that doesn't make you right, you know? Like um >> Michael Brewery, perfect example, you know. >> Yeah, >> he's always early. So, so basically what I did was in in late 2023, the market ripped me a new one. Um, and then I was just like, "All right, like I'm clearly way ahead uh of I clearly thought the market was way ahead of where it actually was." And so then I kind of like took a step back and I was like, "All right, let me try to focus more on 2024 and 2025 and just kind of assume the four-year cycle is going to play out, you know, where you have a topping Q4 of the post having year." And then it did, you know, and I was like, "All right, here I am over complicating it." And we ended up just topping when we always do. Um, so now, I mean, now it's it's just trying to figure out, all right, what's the next most likely move? And I mean, I I guess the sort of the the biggest argument right now is, well, what if I'm wrong about the four-year cycle, right? Like, what if what if we don't go lower into the end of the year? Uh but I I think we will and I think I think one of the reasons we probably will is I think the stock market will have sort of a second a second correction later this year. Kind of like like in 2018 we saw a correction at the very beginning of the year under Trump and then we saw a second correction at the end of the year under you know under Trump and >> after a rally to new alltime highs. >> Exactly. And I'm like, well, and and back then we topped in in September in 2018. And so I'm not that against something similar happening where you just have sort of a second drop in the markets and sort of the back half of the year. And it's that second drop in the market that then causes the, you know, Bitcoin to to to go back down. And look, I think Bitcoin will go lower, but maybe it could always be a retest to the prior low. But my guess is that it'll it'll take it lower. And I think it'll take a lower because the stock market is is getting, you know, a a second correction in the back half of the year. >> So, I want to do a another video for Bitcoin. So, I've got my notes and I remember something about cycles and alltime highs. So, we'll talk about that in a sec. But um just coming back to the 2022 2023 because I'm not sure whether that made you even you know a better investor from that experience and coming up with something that was I think maybe it's new this year or last year with your business cycle which kind of aligns with the 18ear cycle that I talk about. >> What do you call that? Do you have a name for that business cycle equation that you've come up with? >> I just call it ITC business cycles. That's that's all I call it. Um I basically I just wanted to figure out like is there a way to combine all these metrics into a single thing that I can look at and I just was like all right well if you take the we have to have an asset because everyone cares about the price right. So if you take the stock market >> you have a picture of that. I'll just put the chart up while you're talking about it. >> Yeah. Throw the chart up. It's just the >> it's there now. >> Yeah. S&P 500. Can you see the chart at the bottom? Yeah. S&P 500 divided by the unemployment rate squared multiplied by interest rates multiplied by the inflation rate and then normalized by the money supply. Um, and you know the tricky part is, you know, I you could argue that the Fed did a I mean the Fed did a poor job of of getting inflation back to where it needed to be because now we're like what 60 months in and we're still above target. But um you know I I think the Fed did an okay job of trying to engineer a soft landing. The problem is is like plane hasn't actually landed yet like all the way down here and historically historically it does you know it does take recessions to get us to go back down there right and so it it just seems like the inevitable outcome is that we have a recession at the end of the business cycle and it's not like a doomer view in fact I mean as as difficult as recessions are and I don't want to minimize that they are very difficult I mean people losing their job is is is a very difficult thing. They do serve a purpose in the economy, right? They they force, you know, inefficient businesses to close down so that that capital is allocated elsewhere. And if you think about it in in the crypto markets, it's the same thing, right? You're you're essentially seeing like higher risk assets just bleed out because people realize, hey, maybe they don't actually have a future. And you see those higher risk assets bleed out to lower risk assets. >> So, I I think that I I look at this chart and it it looks like a late business cycle environment to me. The hard part is knowing exactly when this goes back down to the zero line. My guess is that it probably won't go all the way back down by the end of the year. I think it probably will take a little bit longer to get down there. Um, but you also have to remember too like the market can bottom before it gets all the way down there as well. Um, so and then there's one more chart that I I like to look at that kind of also sort of confirms late business cycle environment. This is a a liquidity risk metric. It's basically made of looking at things like policy rates, yields, dollar strength, central bank liquidity, and funding stress proxies. And it shows that liquidity conditions have actually been a lot tighter than people think they have been. Um, >> and and we kind of got a glimpse of tight monetary policy conditions back in 2019 and you were trading back then and you know, you saw Bitcoin top out in June and then there was no rotation, right? There was no rotation into into higher risk assets. there's no rotation into altcoins. And then once we had the crisis, the pandemic, it allowed for this thing to reset. And then after the pandemic, then lower risk assets started or sorry, high risk assets started to outperform because there was a reason for the money printers to come on. There was a reason for lower interest rates. So you could argue that this kind of looks like the last business cycle too, like the ' 06 07. And I'm not saying we need a financial crisis type collapse. Um, >> sure. But, you know, it does show you kind of why you're seeing those lower risk assets outperform is because, you know, there there is a lot of uncertainty in the air and and no one really knows when the recession is going to occur, but if you're going to buy something, which you kind of have to because if you just if you just sit in dollars forever, you're going to lose your purchasing power. Um, so you know, if you if you want to buy something, you want to buy something that you feel like can survive whatever downturn we may experience. And I think, you know, in the stock market that means people buying the Mag 7, right? Because I don't think anyone thinks that like Apple's going to die, you know, like Microsoft is probably going to live through a recession. Um, so I think that's kind of why you see some of this stuff play out in the way it does. >> So with those couple of thoughts, you know, things are always going to go up. Have you have you sort of looked back? I know you have, but I guess I want to get your thoughts on what if we had a a return of similar 70s environment, not necessarily exactly the same, but you know, potentially stagflation or more importantly those periods where the market basically goes sideways for about 15 years. And at least, you know, I'm putting my opinion on this is that the main thing we've heard for the last, you know, 10, 15, almost 20 years from retail is to just buy the market and you'll you'll be fine. So, they're always trying to buy the dip. They're always buying their ETFs. And yeah, everyone's made money. It's a good thing to do. But what if things go sideways for 15 years like they did from 2000 to 2013, >> from 1970 or 1966 to 1982 and then in the 40s in which happens every sort of 30 odd years. We're kind of coming to that point. >> Yeah. I mean, you're kind of already seeing it with uh the crypto markets to some degree. I mean like Bitcoin's trading at the same valuation. I mean, I guess it's now at 80K, but it's like trading at the same valuation more or less that it was trading at like five years ago. You know, when you value Bitcoin in gold, it's trading at the same only marginally higher than where it was trading in 2017. Um, so you're kind of already seeing that in in some markets. And I I think crypto kind of leads in in a lot of ways like because it's just more sensitive to liquidity conditions whereas stock market kind of can ignore things a little bit longer until it's until it's no longer possible to ignore. Um I I could see that happening there. There's actually an interesting correlation if you look at like the stock market price to earnings. I don't have this chart up in front of me, but if you look at like the stock market price to earnings where it currently is, historically on average, the forward like 10-year returns tend to be about 0%. Like when you have the price to earnings where they currently are. Um that doesn't mean that like you know you can't make money, right? Even in even in the 2000s, if you if you just bought through the dot crash and like you just kept buying, you still were making money in 2006, 2007. Um, but I I do think there's a there there is a a there there is a good chance you will go into an environment like that. Um, but I I also don't know. I mean, like one way that it could play out is if you get a big crash, which, you know, I don't I don't want to say is necessarily what I'm what I'm calling for. I mean, it could certainly happen, but if you get a big crash, maybe the market just slowly trends up from there, right? And then there's no reason to just wait to buy because maybe the bottom happens a lot earlier than people expect. I mean, with the pandemic, it happened overnight. Um, with the financial crisis, you know, you found a new you found a low pretty pretty quickly by the standards of like business cycles. I mean, when think about the dot crash, it took two and a half years, you know. Yeah. With the financial crisis, it didn't take nearly as long. >> Um, so I guess it depends on how big the crash is. If if it's like the 70s, then you know what? If you just get a drop of like 30%, you know, and then you rally back up to all-time highs and then you get a 40% drop, right? Yeah. Like if in an environment like that, absolutely. Uh you could see it play out where the market doesn't really go anywhere for for a decade. In fact, I was looking at um I was actually looking at uh there's an interesting chart we just added >> and I don't like look I I'm not I'm not here to get political. Um but there's if you look at the stock market returns right just from the 50s. So if you look at stock market returns like 1953 based on political party Republican sweep actually tends to be a little bit more bullish than Democratic sweep. But the most bearish the market is is when you have a Republican president with either a split Congress or a Democratic Congress. So, when you have a Republican sweep, which is where we are right now, the market tends to do okay, and a Democratic sweep, the market tends to do okay. But when you have a Republican president with a split split Congress or a Democratic Congress, that tends to have the lower returns. And I would argue that, you know, there's a really good chance those are the market conditions we're hanging later this year, like after the midterms. I have a feeling that, you know, the the Democrats will take the House and and maybe even the Senate. And so perhaps that will kind of align with prior downturns in the market, which kind of surprised me because, you know, if you look at the Democratic sweep and the Republican sweep, Republicans tend to outperform Democrats when they control everything, which surprised me because I know that like 10 of the last 11 recessions occurred under Republicans, but they mostly occurred when you had a Republican president and then the Republicans did not control, you know, either the House or the Senate. Um, so that's kind of one of the other reasons why I'm not yet like deterministically bearish on the stock market is like I see that coming later this year. And so maybe until that happens or just before that happens, there is still some reason, you know, to remain at least a little optimistic on on the markets. And with stock market, you know, momentum is everything. if you're going to keep putting in new all-time highs. It's a it's a fool's errand to try to predict where the top's going to be. Um, you know, there's plenty of examples where you can find tops in September, October, or I mean, do was in March. Uh, in the 70s, a lot of the tops occurred like right at the beginning of the year, like January, I think, of of um, >> uh, a lot of those sort of like January of every post election year, right? So like a new president would come in and that would mark the top, you know, for the next several years. So we haven't seen that. I mean, you know, this is a right translated cycle. But >> I do see I mean, I I do see the housing market, too. I mean, I know you talk about the housing market a lot. One of the charts that I've been following um again, I don't even know if I can find it, but like housing units under construction, like I mean, that just continues to drop. So it still seems like in line with the sort of the business cycle idea that you talk about. And also, I mean, there's a common saying, which I'm sure you have heard of way more than I have, and that's like real estate is the business cycle, right? Uh, and I mean, I don't know if you agree with that. I'm not a real estate guy at all. Uh, but >> just look at it in terms of the value that's there. So, markets, >> the trillions of dollars, the majority of it is in land, >> right? >> In the US, in the UK, in Australia, it's just land. And so everything has to culminate in that spot for us to get to this peak of the business cycle. And it seems like we're kind of there. The other chart I watch is XHB, which is the homebuilders ETF. >> Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. >> Yeah. You've seen all that. And then that typically tops before the stock market. >> Which one? Yeah. >> XHB B. >> Yeah. So you got that one. I know it's only got two cycles there, but that's already topped in late 24. >> Yeah. But the thing is like >> hasn't broken down yet. But >> but if you look at the stock market, right? I mean like and this is the thing that you you remember in um like 2023, 2024, 2025, like people gave me so much crap for being bearish on altcoins. Um and part of my mistake >> What hasn't Yeah. Um, >> yeah, >> I'm still bearish on my coins, right? But but part of my mistake was, you know, like part of the mistake there for me, like I I think maybe if I had just and I thought I did, like I thought I just was like, look, they they're going to bleed against Bitcoin and they did, but because Bitcoin went up, it just kept dragging the altcoins with it. and and the altcoins were still underperforming Bitcoin, but you couldn't convince anyone of that, you know, like it was all about all, you know, whatever all season. So, when I think about that principle and I think about the stock market and you look at the stock market, the S&P divided by gold, right? Like the stock market's been bleeding to gold since 2021, you know? Um, and in fact, the current levels that it's been bouncing off of are the same levels it bounced off of in 1973, one of the periods you mentioned, and also in 2008. So, like it it's I I can like I understand the stock market, the most likely outcome for the stock market most of the time is that it's going to go higher, right? But in terms of opportunity cost, it actually is bleeding to the to gold, you know? And I I have a like back in 2019 and 2020, I only ever had like a 5% position in gold. But back in 2024, 2023, 2024, I actually increased that position to be closer to like 20 like 15 to 20%. Um, I'm glad I did because like to me like this just looks like yes, the stock market's doing great. And I think about this AI bubble or I know it's not necessar people call it a bubble, some people say it's not, but even with whatever it is, >> the S&P is down 41% against gold since all this AI stuff happened, you know. So that's that's one of the reasons I don't really feel like this is dotcom like uh because the S&P valuation against gold it's not like it's way up here at the.com peak. But I guess the the the the one of the things that I used to try to better understand like what what the mentality that people must have felt back in the dot era was was this chart, right? It's and I'm sure you've seen this chart. I mean I I've posted about it a few times. I'm sure it's on your radar. It's just the S&P 500 divided by the money supply, you know, and I don't expect this analog to last forever. I mean, I I've lost a lot of money in the past betting on analoges to play out, you know, but the reality is I can't I can't shake it because every time every time I look at it, it just lines up perfectly with the current, you know, with the current business cycle. Like every single correction lines up with how it played out in the '9s where you have your your first drop that and the this drop we had in 2023 was back when the the long end of the yield curve was spiking above 5%. Our our second drop in April 2025 was due to tariffs. We also had a similar drop in 1998. The drop we just had corresponded to this geopolitical conflict with Iran. Um and here we are again, you know, putting in all-time highs. You know, if this pattern were to play out, you could still be putting highs even in September. And I I think back, Jason, to like what it must have been like back then. I mean, imagine there were people back then, I'm sure, calling for the top every every single month for years. And then by the time it finally happened, I'm sure no one would have actually believed it, you know? Uh like I mean, imagine this, like if this continues on, even if the highs are in, the market could still generally be trending up even into 2027, you know, before it. Uh, so I think that's why it's so hard is and when I first looked at this chart back in I think it was late 2023. It was after it was after Bitcoin ripped my face off in late 2023 uh on the sort of the pre-ETF launch rally. Um, I started looking for for answers and I found I found this chart and I was like I was like >> that's gonna go very well with your meme holding the Mormon book. >> Yeah. I was like I was like damn like you know like th I could this this still has you know potentially years to go, right? Because this was this was in Q4 of 2023 when I realized I was wrong um about what Bitcoin was going to do right then. And so I looked at this chart and this and think about where we were in late 2023 on this chart. We were literally right here, right? And I I looked at that and I was like, man, if this plays out the same way, this thing could go on for a long time. So then I I stopped being, you know, a doomer if you will. I mean, as people still call me that sometimes, but I stopped like always calling for, you know, sort of a retest of the lows. And I was like, "All right, we'll likely see a, you know, like sort of like a six to ninemonth correction by Bitcoin in 2024 and then we'll likely top in 2025 and Q4." And part of it was just looking at this chart. being like, well, if this thing plays out and Jay, this this is the scariest chart for me, not because I think it's going to happen, but just to put it on people's radar, um, and maybe by putting it on people's radar, hopefully it won't happen, but imagine like imagine, you know, I go and buy Bitcoin in October, right? If this if this plays out, the October low for Bitcoin would happen on that drop right there by the S&P, right? October 2026. Imagine buying Bitcoin there, seeing it rally strong into 2027, and then the recession finally arrives and then it just wrecks everyone, you know. I I hope that doesn't happen, you know? Like I have reasons to believe that it hopefully won't, but it is it is something that I will at least consider. I don't I'm not going to go into it thinking that it's got to be my base case. But, you know, like if I buy Bitcoin in October and we start the macro completely deteriorate in 2027 2028, I think this is the chart you come back to to try to explain what's going on. But my guess my guess is that this this will break because none of these analoges ever fully play out. Like they they can play out for a time, but then eventually eventually they break. And usually the big crashes happen when you know most people aren't aren't expecting it. Um, but it is just one thing. >> We we'll go into that. That's a really good segue. I'll go into that more in the Bitcoin video, which I'll do uh, you know, which we'll do shortly. So, if you're watching, keep that in mind. Wait for the Bitcoin video because we're going to talk about alltime highs and, you know, next cycles. But I want to ask you a couple more questions on this. Uh, it was your chart with S&P and gold. >> Yeah, the gold. >> Yeah. So, the Yeah, I was looking at S&P and silver because I was trading silver last year and then Yeah. >> saw that go crazy and you see that break down and then I saw yours come up with S&P gold. I'm like, "All right, let me have a look at this." And I put this on like a a yearly a yearly chart. just I look, you know, a lot longer term. And then it kind of comes back to the point I was talking about before with the stagnation of these periods. And you can see on that >> at least from the peaks >> that it's about a 14 or so year period. So like 1929, you can see the peak there and then be it ran into that low in about was it like um mid4s? >> Yeah. Right here. 42. >> You got Yeah. Yeah. 40. Yeah. 42. So a huge period that the that gold outperformed uh the S&P and then again you can see there it was mid60s I think to the low in 79 again roughly 13 or 14 years. And then again we've had a shorter one here but this time we only went to a lower high. So >> it's I I guess if this is to play out again, if it is that bad, >> then would you I guess it's kind of the same question, so my apologies, but would you be expecting that kind of stagnation looking at this chart alone where you've got this 20 or so year period based from that top at 2021? >> Well, it's a reason to be bullish on gold. I mean, it's a reason to have gold in your portfolio, right? like it's it's you know like if if the stock market continues this pattern, gold's going to drastically outperform the S&P. And by the way, when you look at sort of the last let me let me flip back to like a monthly. When you look at the last two times that the stock market broke down against gold sort of from these levels, you can see that it it it broke down, it rallied and then broke down again. Right? So last time it dropped, rallied a little bit and then broke down again. And what's interesting is I could see the same thing playing out. And you know how this past cycle for crypto how it was kind of a disappointing cycle in a lot of ways and then we saw this mania phase in metals. I actually think it's I'm not 100% sure, right? But I actually think it's it's highly likely that we see another Mania phase in metals in in potentially a a few years. Um maybe kind of going into the end of the decade type thing because I I just I I see the world kind of heading away from sort of the frothier riskier assets towards more hard assets. And so I I think that I you know I think this is a kind of a consolidation year for gold. It gold might even put in alltime highs this year. It's not impossible for it to put in alltime highs this year. Um, we actually saw it. We we've there is some precedent for it. If you look at at what gold did back in the 1970s, um, you know, like it it had a top in uh in March of 74, dropped like about as much as it just dropped and still was able to put in new all-time highs before the end of the year. Um, so it is possible. I don't think silver's putting in new alltime highs this year. I think it will eventually, but probably not this year. Um, but yeah, I I think I I think it's I think having metals in a portfolio is is not a bad idea. Mainly because not not it's not to say they can't go down, but it's just that whenever they do go down, there's a really good chance that it'll it'll take the stock market down with it. um and and then if if it does go down, I think that gold will then likely recover to all-time highs quicker than the stock market um whenever that happens. But yeah, I would say having gold in the portfolio is is a great idea, especially considering the S&P gold chart. >> Yeah. >> So, I mean, look, >> usually rallies just before the recessions as well. That's what I noticed. 70 early7s and then the 2007. >> Yeah, I mean it does that it like it it'll drop and then kind of get like a little bit of a rally, you know, it'll drop. I mean, it's so hard to time this stuff in terms of like on the daily because these I mean these are these are monthly candles we're looking at. You know, this chart goes back to 1940s, like literally goes back to 19 to World War II. >> Um, so it's like you can you can look at this chart and say this was going to happen in the short term. you can look like an absolute because it just takes more than a few weeks to play out, but it is likely going to play out would be my guess. You know, it likely will. And I guess the big question with a chart that looks like this is, you know, how how do we view it? And I would say there's there's two main ways to view this chart. the the pessimistic way uh you know for those bullish on stocks is to say what if the stock market is an oscillator against gold where it just kind of eventually returns to the lows like it was in 19 or uh 1894 you know in in the 1930s and in in 1980 does it have to go all the way back down here but that's sort of a more pessimistic view you could also look at it and generally say hey this is generally trending up as well. Um, and so maybe that's sort of the the way to sly a little bit optimistic about about it if it if it does play out. >> Which way are you leaning? >> You know, which way I'm leaning. >> No, I don't know. I I don't I don't think it's going to go back to where it was in 1980. Um, I I could see it, you know, I I could see it dropping back down to where it was back over here, though, you know, like I'm not I think that's a completely plausible outcome uh to happen. And you know, it could be a combination of a correction in the stock market and a rally by gold, you know, um >> it could it could be something like that. I I certainly wouldn't wait for it to go all the way back down here, you know, to flip relatively bullish on stocks against gold if it goes all the way back down there because the other thing too is this thing has also been putting in hot, you know, sort of higher highs uh as well. So, but I guess >> and this can just be another higher low forming because we haven't broken the low yet. >> Yeah. Yeah, I mean you you could actually argue uh that like what if we are what if we're just kind of checking in with this trend, you know? Um I don't know, man. I >> too bullish on me right now. >> Yeah. Well, I I I mean diagonals almost never hold, you know. Yeah. Um, so no, I I I would say that the way to the way that I'm positioned for the market again is is I'm still have exposure to index funds, emerging markets, international markets, gold, energy, manufacturing, and and then it's just a matter of like waiting for the stock market to actually show signs of topping. And until that happens, you just kind of let the market do its thing. get out of the way. You have your positions. You're happy that it goes up, but you're also aware that, you know, the business cycle will likely end. And and by the way, one of the things that normally ends business cycles, um, if you go back to look at this chart here is the spike the the price of oil spiking, in fact, in a late in a late business cycle environment. So, if you if we look at I think I have oil on here somewhere. Um, >> I think it was just a bit further. >> Did I remember? scroll. >> It is. Yeah. So, if you look at at oil on this chart, you can see that a lot of the times oil is spiking, you know, sort of ahead of recessions in in a late business cycle environment. Like you can see it was really starting to go like it was dropping in the late 90s, but then it it wasn't until oil started to spike that then you had these recessionary fears even even begin. And that was why I mean in late 2025 I flipped bullish on on energy because I I didn't know I mean I certainly didn't know that Trump was going to do what he did in Iran. But I was looking at the chart I was like look guys a lot of times when you get recessions it's not from low oil prices, right? It's from high oil prices. And the recession then leads to low oil prices. But a lot of the times when you have a recession it's it's from a it's from a point when oil prices are relatively elevated. And we were we had been watching oil prices kind of drop for four years. So the argument for being bullish on energy was just look if this business cycle is to end we need some type of crisis. And historically that one of the major things that tends to end business cycles is when you have an energy crisis. >> Yeah. And like you said we could we've seen it there. Um before we wrap up on this there one other cycle which I'm not sure if if you've done any research into so you know I won't go into too much but you've also got commodity cycle. Have you heard about that before? >> Um so you're talking about like gold and and and food and that kind of stuff in general. >> Food. Yeah. Commodities as well like energies. Um and then it also at times it brought in technologies because technologies obviously use those energies and they typically last at sort of 40 to 60 years. It's obviously so long. So it's pretty hard to >> right it's hard to nail down >> hard to nail down but there is a a talk of it and it's a kandrav wave so like a kwave cycle of roughly 40 to 60 years up sorry 20 to 30 years up 20 to 30 years down and we're potentially coming to the peak at one of those. So, if we do roll over into a 30-year down in a commodity cycle, that's when things can basically stagnate for a longer period of time. And these have all lined up with some of those the 70s periods where nothing went anywhere and back in the 40s. And then once the commodity cycle turned up again, that's when we had these huge growth cycles in uh business and real estate prices go up and and the world is doing a lot better. And it's only when commodities typically turn down is where we get to these problems, geopolitical pressures and bigger wars in the world. But that's probably a story for another day. >> No, but I mean that that's a good point and and I mean that's the thing about commodities is that like if they do drop in a late business cycle environment, it actually tends to correspond to larger drops in risk assets. And that's the thing and I like I've I've said before like I'm bullish on gold still even even now. Um, but if it if the top is RDN in, you're still pro like being exposed to gold now could help cushion the downside rather than being all in on on say tech stocks if you >> that's to clarify that we're not at the peak yet and usually into the ends of the peaks they can go wild. So it still lines up with what what we've been discussing with gold potentially going higher, energy still going higher, agriculture still going higher. it's this sort of >> right and I I think that's my base case is that energy and and food as well like I mean wheat corn I mean I think all that stuff is is heading higher and I I think it's g you know I've talked about this before to to kind of bring up chess because you know I I do obviously play a lot of chess I was the president of chess club in high school my junior year uh guilty is charged um but I I I sort of talked about it like as as as checkmating the Fed right so when you want to when you want to checkmate your opponent You have to if you create one weakness, your opponent can defend that weakness. Uh so you have to create a second weakness. And when you create two weaknesses, they can't defend both. And then that's what usually leads to checkmate. So the same idea I think I' I've said with the markets, you know, if if the if the inflation rate is going up, the Fed knows what they need to do. They need to raise rates. If the labor mark if the unemployment rate is going up, the Fed knows what they need to do. They need to lower rates. What happens if the unemployment rate is going up? while the inflation rate is going up. That is can what lead that that that can lead to checkmate because the Fed then can't respond in the way that they normally would. You could argue the Fed will be cutting rates right now if it were not for the energy crisis that we're currently in. Um and perhaps if they were cutting rates that could help delay the business like maybe it would help soft maybe even lead to a soft landing for all we know. But historically soft landings are few and far between and historically it's the energy crisis that that you know sort of ends things at the end. By the way, I'm curious is the uh does the 18.6 year real estate cycle is that call for a top this year? Is that what it says? >> Yeah, for real estate real estate and the economy roughly around now which the stock market typically tops afterwards. >> So it can still go higher, >> right? Yeah, I think Yeah, I think that makes sense. I mean I my guess is the stock market like will top in the current under the current administration is my guess. Um and then we will deal with the fallout of it kind of after that. Uh but yeah I mean look I mean that's what's probably going to happen. >> Yeah. Well we got lots more to talk about. We didn't even get halfway through interest rates, inflations, bonds, yields, all sorts. Um, I'd love to have you on again at some point when you're not looking after so many children in a business. >> So, um, I'll just say thanks again. >> I'll obviously tell people to go and subscribe, but I think they already know where you are. I'll leave you links and so on, but much appreciated on the chat. And I'll we'll do a a Bitcoin video coming up very soon, too, guys. So, thanks again. Thanks, Ben. Thanks Army.