Family Heritage:
Commitment to Value Investing:
The speaker references Charlie Munger's idea of being a "learning machine" and its impact on their investment philosophy:
"Spend each day trying to get a little wiser than you were when you woke up."
The concept of compound interest for the mind is emphasized through reading and continuous education.
Books and Influences:
Creative Process:
"Luck is what happens when preparation meets opportunity."
Infrastructure Development:
Projected GDP Growth:
Investment Philosophy:
Economic Outlook:
Strategic Investing:
This comprehensive analysis highlights the speaker’s insights into value investing, the Indian economy, and the importance of continuous learning and adaptability in achieving investment success.
thanks uh Jeff. Thank you for that wonderful wonderful intro. Um you know and I've uh really appreciated getting to know you over the years. Um that relations we had with my dad early on and then uh transferring to me. Thank you. Um and we actually um got to spend a lot of time just traveling here together. We happened to run into each other at the airport and got to have dinner together and then on the flight. So uh anyways, just just uh been a good experience coming here. Uh thank you for having me here today. Um a little known a little known fact about my family is that we're actually part Portuguese. uh in the 1870s, one of our ancestors in India, married a ferta married a fertado and u so the Portuguese came to India all the way back in in 1498. But anyway, so we do have we do have some uh love for the Portuguese people and um also have an attachment to this wonderful country. My wife and I visited in 2007, the year before we got married and uh I told I committed to George that I was going to speak at this conference. I didn't realize he was going to do it um the week of my uh wedding anniversary. So um but that is my commitment to value investing. So but actually my wife is arriving today and we can't you know wait to spend the week here uh with my anniversary. And George I I greatly appreciate you u inviting me to speak. It's a privilege to share a few lessons uh here today. And because you run the premier value investing program, um I'll start with some practical ideas for your students because this is going to be available online and I believe many aspects will be beneficial to most of you here as well. So let's see here. Okay. So here's the agenda and we're going to talk about Marvel's journey to investing to arriving to invest in India. some aspects of our differentiated approach and then I'll explain why I think India has a durable runway for compounding growth over the next decade and beyond. Now one of the most impactful ideas in my life comes from Charlie Mer. Spend each day trying to get trying to be a little wiser than you were when you woke up. He first said that in 1994 and in 2007 he expanded on it. said, "I constantly see people rise in life who are not the smartest, sometimes not even the most diligent, but they are learning machines." So, I took my daughter to the Bergkshire meeting u when Charlie was going to turn 100. And unfortunately, Charlie passed away before the meeting, but we attended the meeting and I saw this paper weight with that quote on it. So I bought it and it has a permanent place on my desk and uh what it means is reading is compound interest for the mind. Each page that you read adds basis points to your judgment. And so I'm about you know that I think that's really worked for me and I'm going to demonstrate how it has. I believe learning every day is ultimately how you discover your professional purpose. And um given this is the Ben Graham value investing conference, many of you live this principle. Um as a tribute to Charlie, I thought I'd start by sharing his sentiments and uh it shows how um he helped me be more creative, find opportunity and capture the long-term potential of India. So we'll begin begin with part of my learning journey. These are two quotes from Charlie Mer. I use them uh just like this slide uh when I was pitching our India fund back in 2019. Both were always in the back of my mind before India made sense for us to create the Marvel Guru Fund. The quote on the right about the place to go when you're young is in the inefficient markets. Uh Charlie said that at a Bergkshire Hathaway meeting I attended over 15 years ago and I wrote it down and I never forgot it. It's um it's similar to the sentiments from John Templeton who said, "If you want to have better performance than the crowd, you must do things differently than the crowd." Now, looking back, if I were were to pinpoint why wealth management resonated with me so much, I would attribute it to this book, Money Masters. My dad gave me this book in high school. The book is a compilation of profiles of investing legends from Warren Buffett, Ben Graham, Phil Fischer, John Templeton, and others. Each detailed their uh different methods to reach investment success. The book opened my mind on how creative the investment process can be. It taught me it it was a profession that rewarded people who developed insights and acted differently. uh for India, John Templeton served as a prime example of being a pioneer in uh in international investing. Now, Rick Rubin, he wrote the creative act. And in case you haven't heard about him, in 1984, as an NYU student, Rick Rubin turned his dorm room into the headquarters for the new music label Def Jam. His dorm room became the hub for the New York's hip hop and punk scenes. Today, he's produced many of the top artists, the Beasty Boys, Eminem, Red Hot Chili Peppers, Johnny Cash, Adele, and more. So, you're asking yourself, okay, why am I talking about this? Uh, in the creative act, he tackles the paralyzing pressure of perfection. And I related to that pressure. I didn't want to share my ideas uh to or present to a wider audience outside of my clients. But Rick explained that self-doubt is a universal part of the creative process. Uh by being overly sensitive, you empower your inner critic and that prevents you from sharing your work and opening the way for new ideas. And you know, his background is helping artists um bring out more creativity. So his solution to me, you know, worked for me and it was liberating uh shifting my perspective. You focus on the joy of the process and not the outcome. See each piece. So he was talking about music but presentation in my case uh as one experiment embrace imperfection and trust in the abundant mindset where new ideas always flow freeing you to release your work without attachment and once your work is released then you're open to those new ideas. So Rick insights uh really got me to share my perspective from 2023 and on and that's where I started sharing more. Um now in outliers Malcolm Gladwell examines the factors that contribute to high levels of success and outliers points out the importance of timing to capture a massive theme in one's lifetime. Many Silicon Valley titans like Steve Jobs, Bill Gates, Eric Schmidt, they were born between 1953 and 1956 and they were perfectly positioned for the personal computer wave that took place from 1975 on. So for me, I was approaching 40. So I was 38 at the time. And I asked myself a simple question. What business regret would I have at 60? Thematically the answer was very clear to me. watching India's rise instead of participating in it. And so now let's go back prior to me identifying India as the investment area to focus on. Much like Steve Jobs said, you can't plan to meet the people who will change your life. I believe that's true of opportunity. Long before outliers, John Templeton wrote the Templeton plan. And in step eight, create your own luck, it was titled, he pointed out what Roman philosopher Senica said, luck is what happens when preparation meets opportunity. So it raises the real question, how do you prepare for a moment you can't plan for? My belief is you have to keep learning so you recognize opportunity and seize it when it appears to you. For me, these two books, Peak and Range, provide answers to seeing opportunity through depth and range. Peak was written prim uh written partly as a response to the often misrepresented 10,000 hour rule from outliers. It reminds us it isn't just raw time that matters, but deliberate practice in a specific craft. But then range argues almost the exact opposite for a more diverse experience across multiple fields to foster creative solutions. So I used both disciplines. My specialized craft was managing small and midcap funds. But then my range which I've you know done now for about 13 years and then my range was uh practicing the learnings from many great investors and business leaders while studying global markets and industries. So I had been doing this well before Marvel uh been in the investment industry now uh 24 years and so before these books but they gave the language to each perspective and so when India hit an inflection point we recognized it because we'd done a ton of prior work to understand the opportunity. So when I say we got lucky, I mean it in the Senica sense. A prepared mindset meets discounted prices with a repeatable process laid out from value investing. Now checklist manifesto it details in complex work simple checklists prevent avoidable errors and standardizes execution. And actually uh Monish who's here is with us you'll hear from him today and he's featured in the book. Now the book shows that a checklist in any field of work can reduce mistakes which I believe is at the heart of value investing. It's why we look for that margin of safety. Back in my investment banking days, I drew on five databases to gather research and build analysis. Back in 2001, it was early days between the integration of pulling data into Excel and I got somewhat proficient at building templates. So when I entered wealth management industry in 2006, I built my own financial checklist. After reading the book, I greatly expanded the info I gather and my checklist continues to evolve to this day. My spreadsheet pulls over a thousand data points onto a couple pages in 20 seconds. And it's sort of my version of value line, but it also works for international markets. For me, whatever the headline was, it turned that negative market noise into something I could understand very quickly. It allowed me to go through vast numbers of companies in a short period of time. And in fact, some months I use so much data Bloomberg would cut me off from time to time. Um, the point being that whenever anything appears distressed, undiscovered, or in a long lull, stocks been going sideways for a long time, I I can run a quick financial check that an idea has to pass before we start to do extensive qualitative work. And I value the checklist concept so much when I started Marvel Capital. I built that checklist approach into the name of Marval, uh, which we'll get to in a second. Let's look at Pablo Picasso for a minute. I used to take art for granted. Then I saw this series of drawings by Picasso. For me, art was something I I looked at, but I you know, I couldn't really see it. And I would look at the drawing in the bottom right hand corner, the finished work, and I'd come to the conclusion, this guy can't draw, right? Um but but this series of drawings explains how Picasso made art using a less is more concept. To quote Einstein, "Everything should be made as simple as possible, but not simpler." Picasso took complex subjects and then simplified them down. Picasso viewed art as using as little detail as possible to tell his stories through paintings. He found the few important details which convey the majority of the meaning. So, Picasso drew the bill bull over and over again, starting very detailed until it was just a dozen lines. If any more lines were removed, it would no longer be a bull. Picasso found the essence of the bull. That's also what we tried to achieve with our name Marval because we try to avoid, as Charlie says, the too hard pile outside our circle of competence. And by the way, you know, just so you know, as a value investor, you can have a Picasso on your wall. Um, I got this photo uh frame for $100 and it's hanging in my office. And I also thought it's not a bad thing to have a bull on your wall, right? As a as a long only value manager. Now, before Ben Graham, who I'm named after, investing was mainly emotionbased and very few used logic and reasoning. Ben brought that logic and reasoning to our craft, and that's why we love him to this day. He made investing make sense and accessible to anyone who has discipline. So the name of our firm is not only a checklist. Marvel is a tribute to Ben Graham. Our name Marval encapsulates the most important attributes of value investing in its simplest form. Our firm has created the pneumonic that we used for every potential investment to be measured against. The two most critical questions a value investor can ask. What is the business truly worth? Value. Can I buy it for significantly less than that? Margin of safety. And as as Jeff Stacy said, margin of safety safety and value over the long term. So, Marvel is a checklist for investment decisions. Okay. Now, the art of living is a wonderful book on stoicism and how to conduct your life. It starts with the simple rule of what to focus on, which are things that are in our control and ignore the things that aren't. in investing markets and M&A aren't in our control. So that's not what we focus on. We can f what we focus on are our checklists, research depth, the companies we invest in, and position sizing. However, I realized that in our situation, some external elements outside of our control can become more favorable to Marll and our clients simply by changing the arena in which we invest. We can't control outcomes, but we can pick environments that favor a longer duration and increase the probabilities of compounding. Let me explain. This chart summarizes the takeovers during my first nine years running our global small and midcap fund. The takeovers occurred in the US and Canada, which is where we had most of our capital at work. We held around 30 stocks. So, this was a significant issue. If you look at the length of time we got to hold these investments, nine of the 13 were taken over in under two years, it became a huge source of frustration because we couldn't compound with these investments for years and years. Even the ones we were looking at investing in were, you know, being acquired. So in North America, we can't control the takeovers taking place. But when we researched India, we thought this could be dramatically reduced. This chart shows the number of multi-baggers we've invested in in India in the last six years. I'm happy to say we haven't had one takeover yet. Since India's liberation in 1991 of the economy, um India embraced a more capitalist model spawning a wave of entrepreneurled firms. Unlike North America where most companies control is in the marketplace in India in many case founders control the destiny of their companies because the long-term prospects of India are so great they don't want to sell. A majority of our fund the Marval Guru Fund is invested with family controlled companies. Founders think in decades and not in quarters. So the opportunity for us was to identify companies with large family holdings that align their decisions with the long-term compounding of shareholder value. Now the art of war is an interesting book about how outcomes on the battlefield are decided by the better planner. I look at the enemy in this book as losing money in markets. You know everything in this presentation right it's about it's about investing. So, two things about this book as it applies to investing and hopefully um they will become more clear as we go further into the presentation. First, success is a function of superior planning and calculation before any action is taken. The battle is won or lost on the quality of the initial assessment. Second, fix the enemy's attention with conventional moves, then achieve victory through unexpected unconventional maneuvers. I spent a great deal of time reviewing my experience investing, mistakes I've made and the market crisises I've gone through to plan for a strategy in India. We've devised a strict set of guidelines that I think has kept us away from many permanent losses of capital in a market where the probabilities of success are higher than most markets, but it's evened out as the falls can be even more severe. We'll revisit these points on the uh art of war in the next section. But let's review Marll's differentiated approach. So these are some of the original charts I pitched to people to raise funds in uh 2019 after our launch. So here we showed the 30 top companies in India. They fell 10% in the peak and uh we had just launched our fund. And then I showed them midcaps and small caps fell 29% and 43% respectively. like I was I was very excited about this. Okay, but guess what? Potential investors weren't excited like I was. Um and they wanted a rising market. They don't want to they don't want a falling market. And be to be fair to them, uh we started we we launched in mid 2019 and that was the tail end of India's financial crisis and it was falling and then of course um you know March 2020 co happened. So, so um so while India is a great opportunity, our timing for launching a fund was way off and um and that's the Marvel Guru fund. However, these downturns happen every you know 8 to 10 years. These type of declines create the greatest opportunities. Um uh we we revisit that as ex um you know one of the examples actually two companies um that were more than 10 beggars for us in the in the prior slide. uh one we invested in in the 2019 India financial crisis and then the other one that we got was during the March 2020 when the lockdowns began. So crisises uh can be a good thing for investing. Um so here is the Marvel Guru funds exposure to different market caps. Historically over 80% of the portfolio has been in small and midcaps and we're showing the the last few years here. Um so here is the art of war. Okay, large cap exposure in the dark blue um is uh you see it go up to about uh 38% there. So the art of war is fight conventionally until being unconventional is warranted. My dad once told me in business there should be almost no rules. And what he meant was in business be flexible in terms of protecting the capital, protecting the business before capturing the opportunity. So as our assets grew through 2024, we invested in large caps without generating taxes or selling companies. only an independent firm without a bank owning us or a larger entity uh with like a parent um can do this because otherwise you know you'd be stepping on the large cap manager's toes and then you know there'd be a problem. So we were flexible and we did what's best for our clients capital and the compelling the compelling value for us was in large cap financials. Then the tariffs in 2025 reset some valuations. We redeployed that money back into small and midcaps and identified businesses that had fallen over 40%. And so now we're back to our traditional 80% small and midcaps. Okay, here we show the markets move from September 2024 to April 2025. The Nifty50 are the 50 largest uh companies in India. The BSE 500s like the S&P 500 for India, the 500 largest companies in India. Um, and then we've got the small and midcap indices. Um, from the prior page in 2024, nearly all of that 38% that we put in large caps in 2024, that exposure was largely in financials. And from Ben Graham's teachings, we were led there due to valuations, right? It wasn't some great insight. The valuations were cheaper there. And many small and midcaps stood at at high valuations. So while large cap financials were the lowest in a couple decades when you looked at their valuations not only that their balance sheets were the strongest in a couple decades because India didn't help the government didn't help in the 201819 crisis. So they all had to get their balance sheets in check. So this is how we avoided a big collapse in smaller midcaps of of uh of recent and it's example of how we think we captured the returns of smaller midcaps but with the risk profile of large caps. And you know, Jeff Jeff mentioned our return uh on our 5-year return. Uh you know, against 3,200 inst institutional funds, we've been a top five fund and yeah, reached uh number one for a couple months. Uh that, you know, it's going to go down um eventually. And we're also one of the best institutional grade India funds outside of India. In the last 5 years, we've compounded at uh 21.2%. Now, here's our fund. If you looked at it as a stock, India is a growth market. So going deep value, you get into all kinds of problems, right? Corruption, governmentr run enterprises, deeply leveraged companies, horrible businesses or any combination of these items, right? So on on and on the sales just to point out on the sales and net income, ours are so high because it's coming from the COVID era. But I would say the indices also have that benefit and uh it just shows you there's a lot of bad businesses in the uh indices and that's what we're avoiding. What we wanted to highlight here is that you can build a reasonably priced portfolio in a growth market with extremely low levels of leverage as you can see uh here and um we we've always been uh adverse to leverage and with high returns on equity as Peter Kundle said there's always something to do. So the takeaways on this section from our differentiated approach risk is the permanent loss of capital not volatility and then you want alignment of interest. So owners and operators familyrun businesses extend the compounding horizons and then flexibility. Protect the capital first and redeploy when opportunities improve. If there are excesses in the market you might want to be over uh overly careful for years. As Buffett says, to first finish to finish first, you must first finish. Um, and then use tremendous discipline. Demand low prices for high returns on capital with low leverage. Okay. Now, let's look at India. So around the time my dad came to Canada, it was 1972. India operated under socialism which left no incentive for individuals to work hard or outperform others. My dad left India as many others did in the 60s and 70s. At that time India was a country of 600 million people and the entire GDP was equal to the market value of Costco today. So about 400 billion inflation adjusted. So countless capable Indians went in search of opportunity that rewarded um hard work. Now let's quickly look at India versus South Korea to show how socialism held back that potential. something I think that is lost by many people but obviously not in this room. In 1960 both South Korea and India were equally poor. The average person made about $100 per year but South Korea chose an export-led businessfriendly uh model and for the next three decades it grew at 9 to 10% a year. One lifetime later you know the average South Korean earns $36,000 a year. In India, it's still under $3,000. Indu grew. So, India grew so slowly for an emerging country. Economists called it the Hindu rate of growth. That's a tragic label for a nation filled with talent. It meant jobs were scarce, salaries were low and many bright Indians, the only way to achieve their potential was to leave. So, now let's go through a little history on why India arrived at socialism. In 1700, India made up 23% of global GDP, much like America share today. But two centuries of Brit British colonial rule dismantled that strength. By the time the British left, 250 million or 75% of India's population fell behind in abject poverty. By independence in 1947, India's share of global GDP had collapsed to just 4%. So imagine you're going from 23% of the world's GDP to 4%. So with so many needy, the new nation turned to socialism. It seemed a compassionate way to proceed, but as as mentioned, it caged human potential and the result was a brain drain, right? Innovators, builders, and dreamers went abroad, thrived in capitalist environments and then became engineers, doctors, scientists, entrepreneurs. And today Indians lead many of the top companies in the world you know like Microsoft, Chanel, FedEx, Adobe and Google. So the diaspora became India's pride. These are companies run by the Indian diaspora with the market values of over $25 billion in the last 10 years alone. It demonstrates that the India wasn't missing talent, right? It was missing capitalist ideals. Now in 1991 the Indian economy started to open up because India needed a loan from the IMF but the benefits of opening up didn't reach everyone. The real change started in 2014 because Prime Minister Modi was elected. He was the first prime minister to implement a pro business agenda while making delivery of basic services a top priority to the historically underserved people of the country of India. Under his leadership, India followed a simple playbook with outsized impact. Build the pipes both physical and digital. Now I'm going to throw a lot of stats here to demonstrate the effectiveness of the government. So bear with me. In the last 11 years, last 11 years on the ground, roads have been built roughly equal to the UK's entire road network. The housing that's been added is on the scale of all the UK's housing, 28 million homes. Nearly every village has been electrified and there's 600,000 villages. That's like adding Brazil's entire power capacity. It brought clean tap water to 150 million rural households. It's like connecting every home in the United States. Um then digitally through the India stack, a unified software platform to bring India's population into the digital age, 600 million people came online. Then over 500 million have opened biometric enabled bank accounts. That's creating financial inclusion for all of society. The unified payment interface made real-time payments ubiquitous. It's leading the world in volume. In August 2025, 20 billion transactions were done alone. On the pipe side, India is now the fourth largest rail network in the world. And they've opened a dedicated rail freight corridor so that speeds are two to three times faster. It's part of the plan to lift uh freight uh rails freight share from 27% to 45% by 2030. For ports, um the capacity is up 44%. Remember this is 11 in the last 11 years. That's adding the throughput roughly equal to all of Spain's capacity or Italy's capacity. Um in aviation the number of airports has doubled from in 2014 74 airports. Now there's 160 airports and they want to get to 230 by 2030. And remember 2030 is only uh uh 4 months and and four years and 3 months away. Uh and then there's 1,800 planes on order because of that. And remember, the airline companies only order planes if they're pretty confident that there's going to be uh growth in the economy and travel. Overall, the government has invested 3 to 5% of their GDP and infrastructure, aiming to cut logistic costs as a percentage of GDP from 14% to 8% again by 2030. This is a huge win for the country and for investors. This is unit economics. So in just over a decade in many respects India shortened the distance both physically and digitally between its people and opportunity. Now why we bet on India in 2019 you know we launched the Marvel Guru fund um then but most of the these major reforms I mentioned were either uh being accomplished set in like or set in motion or they've been discussed openly during Prime Minister Mod's first term. in particular, the digital and physical infrastructure is near irreversible. Whichever part is in place, you can't take it away. So, in terms in in terms of policies that they put in that were very uh strong for us, in 2017, they put a goods and services tax in. And that the tagline at the time was one country, one tax. And so, it began to funnel revenue from the mom and pops, the unorganized segment to the small and midcap companies in India and some of the larger companies as well. And then in terms of breath of high-quality stocks, India has a vast number of publicly listed companies, 6,000. But in terms of breath, let's look at the travel industry. The largest hotel chain, airline uh company, online travel portal, luggage manufacturer, um data aggregator. They're all Indian companies and they're listed. You can invest in them. You know, that depth is only seen in the US or in China. And yet India is much smaller. Then we mentioned uh we talked about our smaller midcap expertise also for the macro trail uh tailwinds. The prime minister Modi said when we started he would double GDP would double by 2025. We took him seriously and it created high returns for us. Now they think the economy will double again by 2032 and we believe it. When Modi came to power, India was uh um about the the eighth largest economy in the world. And today it's the fourth. And when I look at my favorite investors, the people that I love reading about their books and everything, they were their returns were created in the 80s and the '9s. In 1978, America was just a $2.5 trillion economy much like when we started in 2019 for India. At the end of 2000, so from 1978 2 and a half trillion, end of 2000 it gets to 10 trillion. So that's a four times on the GDP. That's 22 years. The S&P 500 compounded at nearly 17% a year. Now our thought when we launched India in India that India would go from 2.5 trillion to 10 trillion and instead of 22 years it was you know the guess is is 17 years plus or minus a couple years but that meant the chance of compounding at a good rate was very high in that environment. Right? And why do we talk about GDP growth? Because it unlocks it's a multiplier effect on the economy. This slide shows how GDP growth unlocks that. So GDP doubled from Modi from Mod's election. But the market cap value of stocks has gone up 4x, right? And the unique investment accounts that's gone up 8x to 175 million. They think by 2030 it'll be 350 million accounts. 300 to 350 million accounts. And then the unicorns, so startups that are worth over a billion dollars at the end of 2024, it's 118 placing India third in the world. And we have an updated number on that later on in the presentation. Startups uh mushroomed you know it unleashed being businessfriendly unleashed the entrepreneur in India and there's it's gone to 150,000 cumulative startups and they Infosys founder thinks by 2035 10 years from now there'll be a million. talked about the bank accounts and the internet users of course they went up 4x as well to a billion and of course that has massive influence on the digital payments now India's India will be among the top three economies in the world by 2028 overtaking Germany that's just 3 years from now so when we launched in 2019 we told people we believe India when India reaches this milestone it has a good chance of breaking out like China did and becoming its own asset class and it won't be lumped in the emerging market category. Our best guess is that allocators will start to search for dedicated India funds at that point and we're going to have a nine-year track record then now if we look out further my sense is uh the long term longer term India's journey will be similar to the US rather than China meaning slower progress but I'm going to explain the benefit of that China saw robust growth particularly at the end of 2005 to 2014 so it went also from two and a half trillion to 10 trillion but in 9 years very remarkable but their stock market compounded at 12%. So it equated to 2.8 times your money. That's not bad but that's much less than the US because the US was compounding at almost 17%. And at the end of the US going from 2 1/2 to 10 trillion over 22 years you had 29 times your money. So this is an example of where the tortoise beats the hair, the rabbit. And so in investing, you know, you want the opportunity to compound over a long period of time. You don't want it quickly. Um and as mentioned, so and and um and remember America at 10 trillion, that meant the average person earned $36,000 a year. Okay? In India that would mean and that's like Taiwan today. In India that would be 6 to7,000. So one6th of what the average American would make at 10 trillion. So we think India will be like the US's journey of growth. Much more structural and internal consumption based. And both India and the US are about 60% consumption based as a percentage of GDP. Much more much less export dependent which uh which China is much more dependent on exports. Okay, here's another powerful threshold that's nearing. The point where average income reaches about $3,000 to $4,000 per person. Economists call it the Lewis turning point. Farm jobs shrink, tens of millions begin moving into factory and service jobs. Productivity jumps and then consumer demand takes off. This happened in Japan, South Korea, China. And so today the situation is more than 40% of Indians still rely on agriculture for income. That's where America was a century ago and today less than 2% in America work in agriculture and they produce more food. What's exciting for India, it begins a Louiswis turning point in one year and it gets through it in four. That shift will pull people into higher productivity work and unlock the spending power of an exploding middle class. Today, almost 900 million people make less than $1,500 a year. 500 million of them are going to move into the middle class over the next 10 years. So, consumer demand that could drive it from 2.5 trillion today to like 6 trillion by 2035, 10 years from now. Let's look at the power of India states. Today, India's 28 states produce 4 trillion in GDP. Within 10 years, just the top five states could match that on their own. Which means in the 2030s, India is expected to drive over 20% of global growth. It's like adding a new Saudi Arabia every single year to the global economy. So, India ahead, the India ahead will look profoundly different than the India of the past. Now here are the top five states in India by GDP compared to similarly sized European economies. Now let's look at the population difference of these. Okay. I think it clearly demonstrates how Indian each Indian state can grow way past the similarly sized EU economies. Right? Maharashtra where Mumbai is is 25 times the population of Norway. So hopefully this gives you a better sense of the power of having a population of 1.4 billion over half under 29 years old. The India is the world's largest and youngest population pool and it's poised to drive that innovation because they're so young in terms of innovation for decades. And in terms of innovation, India's created the third most unicorns globally and as of last month it's 120 which confirms the momentum. India's narrative has simply flipped. Where a previous generation was leaving because there was no opportunity, today's founders stay to solve local problems or make entirely new solutions. Builders see their future in India and not abroad. Here we have the number of publicly listed companies in the US. Over 10, this is over 10 billion in 1993. So about 30 years ago um that was 70 companies and today 30 years later there's over 700. India has over 114 companies over 10 billion in market cap. But what's very interesting to us is that it also has 600 companies over a billion US market cap. And small and midcaps they capture themes in the economy that large caps can't. to be large you know the large caps a lot you know majority of them they have to capture revenue outside of India but small and midcaps they prosper they've really prospered on India's growth you know alone there with the rising incomes of India and this universe is rapidly expanding by by 2030 there might be 800 to a thousand companies publicly listed companies that are over a billion in market cap some will be from the unicorns But there's a ton Oops. I don't know what happened there. Oops. Sorry. Okay. There's there's a ton of private businesses that are that have been around a long time that are waiting to be listed right now and to go public as well. Um, and yet India is so much smaller than Europe and it has this many publicly listed uh companies that are over a billion. Europe has 1300 that are over a billion but its collective GDP is 28 trillion 7 times what India's is. Now here here's the BSC the Bombay stock exchange and this is their trillion dollar milestones. So it took 131 years for the Bombay stock exchange to get to the first trillion. Next trillion is is 10 years then there's four years 2 and 1/2 years and then 6 months. So this acceleration illustrates India's remarkable shift. The market uh growth is compounding at a scale few markets have experienced. The Bombay stock exchange will likely reach 8 to 10 trillion in value in the next 5 to seven years and India is already at a size that it can handle global capital. So I think a lot of people when they look at India they think of the India in the past where it couldn't handle global capital. It's very different today. Now one thing we hear from our investors you know they ask about governance and so this top chart the top one shows the BSC 500 the 500 largest companies in India and their auditors and you can see a big shift the auditors by the big five um and you can see a big shift in 2013 and that shift is because the company's act in India in 1956 is updated related party transactions required a majority of the minority shareholders and the changes also brought in compliance demands along with a mandatory auditor rotation that reshaped the audit market for India and so now if you look at the bottom left hand corner um the the average Indian BSC 500 company there's 61% that are audited much higher than China um and working towards its way to S&P 500 now there's a big initiative for India to have their own accounting giants and so you know it might not climb is fast that might change but at the time this was this was an important metric to to look at and I look at our companies and we have 63% audited by the big five and 17% by a big uh Indian firm and then 20% aren't and that makes sense we have a lot of companies under two billion and much smaller than that and so it doesn't make sense for them to pay for a large auditor this is the last item and I think this is a big plus for India Over 35 million people of Indian origin live abroad. That's about the size of Canada or California. And they thrived. In the US, Indians are the highest earning immigrant group. Double what the average American makes. If you add up those 35 million in what they earn at their host country's average incomes, you get $1.3 trillion. That's over 30% of India's current $4 trillion economy created by less than 3% of India's population just to give you a sense of what's possible for the long term of India. And by the way, the diaspora haven't forgotten India. In fact, no diaspora um is closer to their motherland. Indians, the diaspora have sent back $135 billion to India, which is about half of Greece's GDP. It's the largest annual remittance to any nation and it's a huge benefit to the people in India and the money keeps rising every year. And so the diaspora I just think shows what happens when talent meets opportunity. And so just revisiting you know the current Indian diaspora CEO slide I showed earlier. Those diaspora CEOs run some of the largest companies in the world. That's nearly $9 trillion of market cap. 75% greater than India's stock exchange value and these companies you know they they have India as a large priority and so as prime minister Modi calls it from a brain drain to a brain gain this is just here's the last line I take my kids my wife and kids to India every year because I want them to be connected as possible and witness this dramatic transition of what's happening before our eyes. India has a tremendous future ahead particularly over the next 10 years. If you are thinking of investing in India, we hope you will consider us and investing with us and uh and join us on our journey. Thank you very much.
October 14, 2025: Benjamin P. Watsa, Founder & Chief Executive Officer, Marval Capital Ltd., Chairman of Fairfax India Holdings Corporation and a director of Fairfax Financial Holdings Limited, Toronto, ON, Canada was the Keynote Speaker at the Ben Graham Centre’s 5th European Value Investing Conference and presented the topic “India – Our Journey and the Opportunity“. PowerPoint Presentation: https://greekvalueinvestingcentre.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/01.-BW-BEN-GRAHAM-CENTRE-VALUE-CONFERENCE-Final.pptx.pdf More information regarding this event: https://greekvalueinvestingcentre.com/index.php/ben-graham-centres-5th-european-value-investing-conference/ Upcoming Events: https://greekvalueinvestingcentre.com/index.php/events/upcoming-events/ Greek Centre for Value Investing: https://greekvalueinvestingcentre.com/ Copyright © 2025 Greek Centre for Value Investing Not to be copied or reproduced without permission To request permission, contact us: https://greekvalueinvestingcentre.com/