The day is not far when India will become a $5 trillion economy. The dream of a $5 trillion economy was going to be fulfilled in 2025. Then it was said a little further. Then it was said a little further and now the goal post has shifted to 2029. Not only the timeline, experts have also raised questions many times about the credibility of the GDP figures. And if we keep all that aside, then a very fresh comment has come from the IMF. The International Monetary Fund has raised serious questions on India's GDP. Our data quality has been graded C. Means third class. The second worst category is just below this, the D category. So today we will know what the problem is? India's growth data. We will know what the experts say because if we do not measure the fever then how will we know which medicine to give. Hi, I 'm Shruti and you're watching Kharcha Paani. First of all let us understand GDP. GDP means Gross Domestic Product. GDP means the total value of all final goods and services sold within the borders of any country in a year. Final goods and services means end product is the final thing that is sold in the market. It can be measured in three ways: Production, which is how many goods or services are produced. From income, how much people and companies earned in total, and from expenditure. What was the total expenditure in the country? India's GDP is calculated by the National Statistical Office, which comes under the Ministry of Statistics. This office releases the GDP numbers every quarter and every year. Now let us come to what is this C grade matter? The International Monetary Fund ensures that the economic condition of different countries remains good. If someone needs a loan, she gives it. Sometimes it is also given to countries that do some strange things. I do n't go to that street at the moment. So they released a report in which they gave India a C grade in its national accounts, which also includes GDP. He clearly says that the frequency and timing of the data is fine but there are flaws in the method of calculation. This is not the first time that questions have been raised about the credibility of these figures and there are many problems. Today we will talk about some main problems. The first is the old base year. Understand it like this, you tell your mother that you want to buy bread from the market, give me ₹50. Mom turned back and said that in 2011, bread was available for ₹20. I will give only 20. You will say, hey mom, we will have to buy things at today's rates. The rate of 2011 has become old. This is the only problem while calculating GDP. India still uses 2011-12 prices as the base for calculating real GDP. This means that whatever production is taking place today in 2025-26 is being measured at the prices of 2011-12. The structure of the economy has changed since 2011-12. New sectors like IT, digital services, e-commerce, gig economy, fintech, OTT have emerged. In between, Covid came and went. Wars also broke out all over the world. But real GDP and many other official figures are still weighted with the 2011-12 base year. At present the government has formed a new committee. We are thinking of making 2022-23 the new base year. The plan is to implement it in 2026. The second is the method of measuring inflation. How consumers in our country, that is, you and I, are feeling inflation. This is determined by the CPI. That is, Consumer Price Index. The concept is simple. The government combines some things to make a basket. Makes a basket. Our daily needs like food, clothes, house rent, electricity, petrol, medicine, school and every month she sees how much the total expenditure of this basket has changed, increased or decreased? Now what is the problem with this? This basket was made last 2012. At that time, there was no online food delivery, nor were the expenses of OTT so high. Smartphone EMIs, app-based cabs, Zomato, SWGI, gyms, private healthcare, coaching, exam prep, many of these are either under- represented or not there in the CPI basket. Bills like OTT, gym, cab, coaching etc. play a big role in the lives of many people. But the government's inflation basket is still mostly stuck on grains, vegetables, rent, electricity and water. Meaning the inflation numbers that are visible are not as they appear. The quality of this entire inflation measurement has also been given a separate B grade. The third problem is seasonal variations. Don't adjust it. In an economy like India, during Diwali season, wedding season, harvest season, people's spending suddenly explodes. There are record festive sales. Then the demand weakens in a few months. And there is a lot of difference between them. Suppose you gave five tests, you got 95 in two and 40 in three. If you just look at the average, the score will seem fine on paper. But is that the right picture? You did the overall right thing. This does not mean that the remaining weaknesses have been eliminated. Same thing happens with the GDP of the country. The festive quarter went well, there were GST cuts, there were offers. If consumption increases due to all this, then what about the impact of rural distress, joblessness and weak wages in the remaining quarters ? It is important to adjust such fluctuating graphs so that the correct picture emerges and the policy makers in the country understand where the problem lies. And the fourth point is informal economy. About 50% of India's economy and 80 to 90% of employment comes from the informal sector. Which includes small shopkeepers, businessmen, gig workers, delivery boys, cab drivers, laborers etc. There is no contract, social security, pension, registration etc. in this. That is why it is also called unorganized. This is informal. Just imagine, such a big economy and so many people in it, but there is no proper high frequency data on them. There are surveys of the unorganized sector like ASU SE, these are conducted after many years. IMF and many researchers say this when the informal sector is a pillar of your economy. If there is no regular data, then naturally questions arise on the GDP numbers. Let's hear what the experts say. There are many informal sectors whose data we are not able to capture. We are not able to capture their data. For example, suppose we capture the data of public expenditure. But the data is of private investment expenditure or rural expenditure. We are not able to capture the data of the expenditure of the village people. When is the Consumer Price Index? 2011-12 is the base year. That means the component of food in the Consumer Price Index still has a weight of 46%. Imagine we are running on an inflation index of 111. While we are living in 2025, this is a date practice. That is grade C. So this is the reason behind grade C. Now let's talk about the GDP numbers for Quarter 2 of 2025. It has come today i.e. 28 November 2025. The GDP growth rate in the months of July, August and September has been 8.2%. This is much higher than analyst predictions. If we look at the same quarter last year, it was 5.6%. Credit where it's due. Some sectors saw good growth. First of all, there was good growth in the manufacturing sector and then in the hotel and transport sectors. Let's hear what the experts say about this. So the reason behind not being able to adjust the seasonal variation is that during the monsoon season your GDP increases. Correct? So due to increase, this performance may be good in Q2. The geopolitical problem that is going on is like a tariff war. So India's performance is good even after the tariff war. Because the service and manufacturing sectors have done better. So, I think the biggest reason behind the improvement in the service and manufacturing sectors is that more demand has been created. Now see, after listening to this entire story, two reactions can happen. One is that all the numbers are false and the other is that everything is perfect. There is no problem at all. See, both are wrong. The truth lies somewhere in between, as the IMF has said that the Indian economy is moving forward but how fast, which sectors and where the problems are, the data on this is perhaps not that clear. After the gaps we understood in today's episode, the natural question is which number is true. And the institutional answer to this question is the IMF's C grade. And now the ball is in the government's court as to how they want to address this. and Government Nose Ball. What do you think about today's GDP numbers? Is this growth reflecting around you ? What changes are visible? Tell us in the comments. Today's expenses end here. Take care and keep watching The Learn Talk.