Hello everyone and welcome to the Cryptos Technical Briefing. Dear friends, delighted to see you again as every week, we're going to have a lot of fun on Tuesday, April 5, 2026. Geopolitics, American macroeconomics, the Federal Reserve of the United States. Finally, this week could see the definitive confirmation of Kevin Warsh's arrival at the head of the party. It's 99.9 % done. He will arrive from May 16th, popo is hanging on. Jerome Powell will not, in principle, leave his position within the FOMC, unlike all the former presidents of the Fel. He wants to stay. This promises to be a showdown at the top, since you can imagine that both Kevin Warsh and Powell will be there. He will no longer be president, he will not have the same prerogatives, but there you have it. So this looks like it's going to be a sporting event. Not to mention that once Avin Warsh is at the head of the Fed, the Senate banking committee will finally be able to take the bull by the horns. The bull by the horns. Taking the bull by the horns, what is the bull? The Clarity Act, the new crypto regulation that will allow massive institutionalization of Bitcoin and especially Alcoins, much more than is already the case in the United States . Moreover, in this new edition of CB, I will start by talking to you about Clarity because it is coming, it is the base, it is the foundation of the Grand Bull Market which will take place in particular in the years 2027 and 2028 and 2029 for the next peak of the cycle. So we'll start with the first part, the Clarity Act. In the second part, I give a technical overview of the stock market, tech, AI, the major US indices, where the sectors stand, and especially those that are correlated with the price of BTC. By the way, we're going to take a quick look at AI in the stock market, which has risen to the very top, which is vertical. It looks like a token, a shitcoin, semiconductors, is it expensive? For example, let's take the example of Nvidia, is Nvidia now too expensive on the stock market or not? And of course, a cyclical and technical point, technical and cyclical on the Mira, talking about TH and Alts. Alright, welcome to the new edition of CTB. As I confess this to you dear friends, my experience, my personal experience in crypto investing, feedback from observations of all the crypto investors I have spoken to. I know the three major mistakes that are made and that explain why most of them have a crypto NLP that doesn't take off. First of all, not knowing how to take one's winnings. A win is a win. As I often say in my videos, did you take your profits somewhere between $100,000 and $120,000? How to manage your emotions in the stock market, and not rush in after 10 consecutive sessions of gains? Using the wrong word leads nowhere. And on the contrary, do not give in, do not lose your nerve, do not do anything rash in the heart of fear when you know that the bottom phases are built precisely in the phases of fear and capitulation of the masses. And finally, do not enter the market haphazardly, have a methodology for entry, exit, and risk management. These three mistakes, at least one of the three, two out of three or all three together, is the explanation for your crypto capital not taking off . That's why I created, we created at Cryptost with Will the boss of cryptoatè, the cryptoratège service which is a support service that deals with these three errors already with a wallet driven by our algorithm. Our algorithm is a little gem. Real-time notification. concrete methodological support for entering and exiting the market, and for managing risk. Individual support with our tax lawyer, our notary and our wealth management advisor . Dear friends, you will find a link to another video in the description of this video . It takes 10 minutes, it's pure alpha. Take the time to listen to it. Will, the boss of Crypto Stratège, presents our service. This is our premium service. We can't do any better. This is the best way to ride the next crypto boullrun with a serious house that cryptost. See you soon on Crypto Stratège. You guys have seen how I'm getting massively strong from doing Crossfit every day. Yeah, here we go . Let's stop the nonsense. By the way, yes, thank you for being so present, for staying with me in the highs and lows. And by the way, feel free to use the comment section to indicate which crypto you would like me to analyze in the last part of the video. Before, there was a poll. Now, we'll move on to the comments section. So, let loose. List all the cryptos you like, I think the one that comes up most often. Okay, let's go . Let's attack. Oh, and by the way, the M2 is back. M2 was extremely precise . The famous M2, you know the M2, well, in this case, it's still projected in the same way. Give the bottom line in early February. So if we follow this, it means that in mid-May we are in recovery and that the recovery should reach its maximum potential mid-mid. Perhaps in contact with the SMA 200 83 84000 dollars. Okay, we're getting there, he said one thing, he's 83,840,000 dollars, we're getting to the border between the official end of the be market. This would then be the very first be market to have lasted the same amount of time. If we really have reached the end of the BER here, the very first one has to go back to 2011 to have a BER this short. But that 's still not the dominant scenario. So even though there are positive things happening, notably the Clarity Act, I'm going to talk about it right away, but here we are reaching other frontiers. Okay, I'm going to talk about this for a number of reasons. So let's start at the beginning, let's start with the Clarity Act. I often talk about the Clarity Act. Why am I bringing this up again? Because Kevin Warsh's confirmation at the Fed is practically a done deal. The vote in the banking committee has taken place. There is more than just a vote in the plenary session. Right afterwards, the senators already started working on it . The banking commission is Clarity Act, it's the crypto game changer. That's the argument, I'm not going to tell you the insurance because you should never say that, but it's the rock-solid argument of the next cycle boule. Oh, don't worry, no stress, okay? The next Sig Bull will develop from the bottom, this year and 2027-2029 for the final target 2029 and it will be based on that. Institutionalization, in fact, you ca n't imagine how big it is, it involves billions of dollars. There are already ETFs, you know them, there's BlackRock, there's Morgan Stanley, now it has its own ETF. Goldman Sax has filed its ETF application. All the other banks are coming, Bank of America and so on behind them, they are going to pitch their clients. But above all, the Clarity Act finally means the end of regulatory stress. No more legal ambiguity, no more risk of prosecution, no more compliance costs, nothing. All of that is over because the US Clarity Act, which should be definitively adopted by the US Senate by the end of May or the beginning of June, finally provides a legal framework for Bitcoin and for Alts. It's Satan. They have been in the be market since 2022 for the most part because the institutes do n't go there. The companies could be prosecuted by the SEC because it was unclear whether it was a securities or a commodity. As a result, they will be classified as commodities, which is much simpler. There are far fewer obligations and so on. It's going to be a bit like gold in the end. So if you want to classify most jets as commodities and not know that this is the end of the legal flow. So, with less legal stress, serious institutions can now consider including cryptos in their asset allocation, something they could n't do before because of legal concerns. Behind this, it also allows issuers to move forward and even launch their own ETFs or other crypto derivatives because they will finally have a legal status. There are so many things if you want currently officially apart from BlackRock which said you had to have 5% of your portfolio in crypto, all the other banks said nothing. Now that there will be a legal framework, if all US banks start saying the same thing, it's going to be incredible. So, facilitated institutional access, flows, we're talking about hundreds of billions of dollars. I'm not going to make you dream about this week or tomorrow or the day after tomorrow. This is for the next three years. Liquidity, price, innovation, adoption, US competitiveness and above all custody, compliance, transparency, governance, cybersecurity, all of this will have a legal framework. But the most important thing is this, the fact that most tokens will be classified as commodities and we as securities. On the other hand, Clarity will also give legal status to DIFI, decentralized finance. If there is anything more tangible within the Altes market, well, borrowing money, lent on the blockchain, so a parallel banking system but on the blockchain which was completely opaque and now it will have an official legal status, you can imagine what's behind it, it's massive. So, for the next cycle, well, the Altes, they're going to, I'm not saying they're going to do like 2020-2021, but they're going to do much better than what they did in 2023-2024, much better. That's confirmed by mid-June. So, from here, from here, from May 15th, Kevin Warch is confirmed as head of the Fed. Next, the US Senate banking committee goes through it to finalize. There is still a problem with the yield of stablecoins. As soon as they agree, we're good. So that's really interesting and uh, so that perhaps explains a little bit of the short term, but here we're really projecting, we're projecting, it's the structural game changer if you will. Well, the stock market, listen, the stock market is right at the top. The US stock market is at its peak. The SNP 500, which has made a vertical comeback, is very similar to what happened here with the recovery that followed the first trade agreements, new historical records. Except that if we achieve these new historical records, in reality, it's thanks to technology. It's thanks to tech. This is thanks to the tech sector, which has returned to its historical records, but more specifically thanks to the semiconductor sector. Look at that. Look at this weekly chart. That's one candle equals one week. So, we barely see the decline of the war in Iran and for that boom it pays off behind because the results of semiconductors, Microns, Nvidia, SKNX, the demand for AI, AI RAM, it explodes, it sends billions in all directions, billions of dollars. Oh my, we'd love to have them in our pocket. No, but it's those companies that have them. Happy are the employees of those companies. The shareholders are happy. I know someone who works at Google. Finally, someone is brief, I know someone who knows someone who knows someone. Well, not that point though. Who works at Google, high salary for 10 years, Google shares every year in the profit-sharing program if you want in the savings plan in the profit-sharing plan. Boom, forget it. Lucky are the shareholders and employees of those companies. So that's what's pumping like crazy. In fact, if you remove the "les", then these are the major compartments of tech. Although we haven't gone back that far to extract semiconductors, we are still at historical records. So it sends money, it sends cash, it sends incredible profit prospects. You wouldn't think we live in a world at war and geopolitically dangerous. When we look at AI, semiconductors, the demand is so high, when we talk about demand, I'm not talking about GPT chat, Claude and so on, the famous conversational agents. Yes, that's important. That's what you see, but behind the bulk of it is the demand. There are companies, bit data, data processing, data processing, and behind that, intelligent things can be done . That's why they're building data centers everywhere, and behind them, you need AI GPUs, and so if you need AI GPUs, you need AI RAM. and there is a bottleneck, there is a shortage for 3, 4, 5 years because it takes time to build factories that build, that manufacture this RAM. In short, there is an industrial asymmetry which means that it guarantees revenue, demand, growth and so on and so forth, and a supply- demand gap. So the stock market is at the very top. Well, I'm not going to go over all the geopolitics again, but I've done it so many times that you know the geopolitical risk barometers by heart , there is no appeasement. Possibly gas, there isn't any on the oil, there isn't any on the urea, the D3 of ormous, there isn't a ship that passes even if in any case it will eventually reopen. But here's the thing, they're crazy in the market. They're crazy, completely crazy, completely crazy. So, we're waiting for the fighting to resume, actually. So there you have it, it's a ball, it's a ball. So, for now, the SNP 500 shouldn't re-enter that, but indeed it's true that it's quite impressive and indeed we can ask ourselves the question of whether Lia and Nvidia for example are these sectors expensive again on the stock market when the market is at its peak. I'm going to show you Nvidia's stock. Nvidia stock. So here's the thing, this thing, it's failing to break records, but let's take a step back, okay? Okay, so the thing is still right at the top, the box is still right at the top, I'll show you Micron. Look at Micron, world leader in AI RAM. Ah, there are better things than cryptocurrencies, my friends. So that's it, it's not a crypto, right? That's Macron, he's worth 500 billion dollars. It is the world leader in AI RAM, which is called HBM. There you have it , there are 1000 times better things to do with stocks than with cryptos. I agree with all of that. When you see that, you think, "Well, it's too late, it's over, I can't buy it, it's way too expensive." But Kenitra, don't be fooled, it's not expensive. I'm speaking fundamentally. How do you say it? How do we value that? We take the stock market price and compare it to the profit prospect. Well, these values, despite being vertical, are still at the bottom of the table in terms of relative charter. The profit prospects are so, so, so, so, so, so, so, so, so incredible. We're going to take the semiconductor sector, the sector, and I'm looking at the PE forward column. The stock price compared to profit prospects, well Nvidia is in 9th position, it has a PO forward of 17. A PE forward of 17 is nothing. It's nothing at all. Okay, let's go, let's go, let's go look at the whole SNP 500. Tesla is 160. Uh, Tesla is 160. Uh, wait, I 'll take some big boxes from the back so you can see. That's where Walmart is at 40, Boeing is at 50, Apple is at 30. So Nvidia Micron, they are only at 15-17 even though these stocks are super high on the stock market and well they are cheap in terms of valuation. So that is indeed the main explanation that as soon as there is an external shock , whether it was a trade war or geopolitics, it pays off immediately, they rush to pay as long as there are profit prospects that are completely incredible. And if you look more generally at the valuation of the US Tech sector, you have the classic PE here and the chiller PE here . So in price earnings, remember that there are three. There is the classic PE, you know, market price compared to the profits of the last 12 months. The PO chiller is the market price relative to the profits of the last 10 years adjusted for inflation, so we eliminate the price aspect, and the forward PE for me is the one that matters most, even if there may be a bit of a guessing game aspect, it is the market price relative to the anticipated profits of the next 12 months, take all three, we are not at record highs, there is upside everywhere, and the forward PE is cheap even though I showed you where these stocks were. So imagine when we were at the bottom at the end of March, they had really become chips as our great Anglo-Saxon friends say. A little less so with our friends, it depends on the time of year, but overall that's it. So, indeed, all of this is something that is generally in support of the market. So yes, I'm going to switch to Bitcoin, but right now, if you want to know, in the immediate future, in terms of geopolitical factors, in terms of factors, we can see my lovely microwave behind me and my dishwasher. So wait, I'm hiding it with my head. Okay , there you go. So yes, you have geopolitics of course, that's what you uh it's daily and you know there are shadow discussions through the Oman, Pakistan and so on channel with a view to reaching a mini deal to reopen the D3 of Ormous without having a total agreement on nuclear. So that's something we obviously always need to keep monitoring. The complicated scenario would be a resumption of direct hostilities between Iran and the United States. Well, that's going to cause a drop. Then you have the monetary policy aspect, Kevin Warsh. Normally, Kevin Warsh will be officially confirmed as Fed chairman this week or early next week . And so, from May 16th, from Saturday May 16th, he is the head of the Fed. What we don't yet know is whether Jerome Powell will stay at the FOMC or not. If he stays, there will be conflict because there will ultimately be two presidents at the head of the party, even if in fact Powell will no longer be president, he will retain influence. But we don't know if he's going to stay, there's a crazy amount of pressure for him to leave. And then there's the Clarity aspect, which I talked about for cryptos, which should come right after. Clarity, I don't want to sell you a dream, this is of course a very flimsy argument for the medium to long term for the next cycle. Now, that doesn't guarantee that Bitcoin won't retrace one last time, make one last bottom, and so on. So , we need to look at things now from a technical and cyclical point of view on our friend BTC. First of all, why are we doing this again? It's the short squeeze. I think it's been 3 weeks to a month now that in each of my CPBs, I've been talking about the short squeeze. That's what happened. The short squeeze must be differentiated from the end of the... let me explain. There, you can see the Bitcoin curve in white. Look at the Bitcoin price chart since last October. The fall, the range, the fall and our hold. So you recognize that, you recognize that, right? You recognize that. The drop to 126K, the range, the drop, and so everyone saw the same range, everyone saw the drop to 50K. It didn't happen. For what? through a positioning process. In green you have the funding data, the green histogram, the funding is the long positions. Remember this, I'm simplifying things drastically. These are the financing costs on perpetual futures contracts, but don't worry about it . When the histogram is green, it means that it pays below zero, it's a huge short position. Look in the orange zone at the end of January, it was paying off big time . When it pays off big time, the contrarian market takes the stops of the longs and for the past month, not only is it not paying off , but it's shorting like crazy. And short positions like that, the last time we saw them was at the end of 2022, FTX collapse, end of Uber, boom, what's going on? It's liquidating. And look, here, it's liquidating, liquidating, liquidating, liquidating short positions. So what I mean by that, and by the way it's the same thing on ETH. On ETH, it also recovers a little less because there are also long positions, but there is a maximum of short positions on ETH. You know the TH curve since last October compared to the January range, in that range, there are still some shorts. There were no shorts there. There, there are a maximum of leveraged short positions. I'm not talking about sports shorts, I'm talking about short positions, sales positions. So there you have it. So this recovery, that's the short squeeze. These are not offensive purchases either. So if there are indeed some on the OTFs since the beginning of the conflict, it is surprising the inflows that there are on the US spot Bitcoin OTFs and that shows an institutional positioning. It's true that Bitcoin has now surpassed the short-term analytical price of 79000 in all past benchmarks. never very short time we exceeded the price achieved short term of analysis way it's not up to date huh it's 78 there 8 but we are now above so we are coming if you want to decision time we are coming to the border we will have to make the choice the choice between definitively acknowledging that the ber is finished or well in fact we are still building the ber choice what is it all the past ones have failed at the SMA 200 in all the past ones take for example the old ber here. There you go, the bounce at the SMA 200 was super clean and we're off again. On the other hand, when we cross it again for good and it changes slope, it's the official end of the same way in the same way if you put the Kidjune into weekly data Isimoku system, I have taken them all. All the beers of the past were covered by Kidun Weekly. All the beers of the past were covered by Kid June Weekly. And I'm back here on my H4 gaf where I put the Kidun Weekly, it's at 83,000. 83 and 5 and there you have the resistance of the 85. So 83 84, it will be decision time border border 83 84, we reject, it's over. It was just a short squeeze and we continue to build the B. Maybe we will do that then, we reject and we will come back to make a double bottom later on 60k and really really definitely the end of the BER where we expose all of this, we cross it again and it is officially the end of the BER. Crossing the K June Weekly, crossing the SMA 200, that's officially the end of the B. You might say, it doesn't add up in terms of time and price. As for price, I've already had the opportunity to show you that it fits according to certain technical indicators, notably the incredible and baffling effectiveness of the Weekly RSI. I've already told you about that. or even the incredible and baffling efficiency of Bitcoin cost of production which, well, here we are doing the same thing again, huh. Wow, that's crazy, isn't it? Because, well, we went out again, we went out again. It was always at the end of the bath. So it might seem ritesque, but it's amazing. So indeed, uh, so there you go, be careful, for now we are still below the 200 SMA. We are below the, we'll see, we'll see first the 200 SMA. We'll see first what happens with the 200 SMA. Uh, here, these are the moving averages, these are the exponential moving averages. For now, it's a short squeeze. Uh, so then, you might say, but we haven't reached Be Market's usual targets, which were around 50K. Remember all the onsin models I showed you; there may be an explanation for that, which is that, remember, the previous bull run did not reach the historical cycle top averages . So ultimately, there may be reasoning to say that since the previous bullrun did not reach, remember, in Q4 last year, what could be expected of it, well ultimately it is a small ber as we did not have a big bull. So big bull of course, I'm talking about a big bull run, a big bull market and not what you probably thought of. Well, I'm pissed off, how could I have said that? So, since we didn't have a big bull market in Q4 of last year, it might only fit a small one, and besides, it's true that when we compare the intercycle average, remember this graph that I often showed you, it's perfectly up-to-date, finally we're in the low zone, so that means maybe we're going to do something like that, come back a bit like that and then start again in 2027, for me 2027 it will be bullish, that's all it is now, so do we do like that, hop, we fall back, we make a double top and we start again, or are we really going back to try to get back to the average, we sink with it, we start again . Okay, then from 2027 onwards, it's back to 2 or 3 years of madness. But indeed, there could be an explanation in that if we did n't make a sick T4, that's perhaps why we made a small one . So, a little cradle, a little cradle, does that stick in the long run? You know, we are now at 211 days since the start of the be market. Uh, the previous one, the bottom had been reached in 220 days. There was the fall of FTX to 376 with the wiki divergence, but that was an exceptional phenomenon. Take the 2018 cradle, it lasted 1 year, the 2013 cradle 1 year. But the very first one before the halving, in fact before the first albine, the very first Ber had lasted between 125 and 155 days. Between 125 and 155 days. And so and so and so and so and so and so if we say that the ber was made at the beginning of February, that made 150 days. So if really, but frankly it's not the scenario I favor for me, frankly the SMA 2004 could fail. This could be the end of the short squeeze, this could be the end of the rebound, but let's imagine that this isn't the case and we say to ourselves, "Damn, this does n't hold up in terms of timing." So, this is the end of the average duration of the so-called 4-year cycle. So, exactly, where was it ? Where was my graph? There, that's it. And well, in fact, if we made the end of the ber here, we would have almost the same duration as the very, very first glass, but not the same duration as the last three which had lasted a year. So when we talk about a be market that lasts a year, we have three occurrences: 2022, 2018, and 2013. Then there was 2011, but that was before the halving. So there you have it, now that's it, that's me frankly I even tell myself the clarity act when we look at the M2 I showed you earlier when we look at the M2, it tells us that it bounces until mid-May before failing. So what is also possible, what is quite possible, is that until mid-May, we will try for 83 84 and fail and then retrace to make a bottom of ber in agreement with the average durations of the last three. Finally, you see, it's descending time anyway, we're getting to key points. The weekly RSI at 50 is the most consistent across all of Bitcoin's history; there is no exception. The overshoot of 50 weekly occurs at the end of the BER. We're on it now . So it's decision time. Decision time, and it's especially the SMA 200. The SMA2, the Kijun Weekly, the SMA 200, they are at the same level. They are at 83 84. So we'll see, and frankly, it could very well fail here. It could very well fail here. R, in any case, right now it's a short squeeze process and I'll be receiving that every day. It's true that as long as I see a maximum of leveraged short positions, that's still the case this morning. I thought, well, the thing can hunt a little higher. The thing can hunt a little bit higher. So. So, where is my little ETH? She's here for ETH. Well, it's the same thing, actually. So, I won't go over the whole thing again, we all know the market is in a low zone. Well, he traced 786, almost exactly 786. The previous one had traced 786 exactly. This time it was 1717, we got close, but not really. It's true that the idea was that it could perhaps make one last bottom, which is still possible, but we can clearly see that it's an extremely low zone in the medium to long term, considering that in the next cycle it will finally try for 6,000 or 7,000. Now, the recovery is of the same nature as Bitcoin's. That is to say, if you take the positioning data, the leverage was used, there you had the range that we had made between November and January. The range we made here between November and January, we came out at the bottom. For what? Because throughout the range it paid out like crazy and we took the stops on the longs and here unlike Bitcoin, we see that there are some leveraged long positions but there is mostly a maximum of shorts. As you can see, there are a lot of shorts. So here too it takes the stops, it takes them but in a less clear way. Uh, it takes them from the average amount and likewise the 200-day moving average is here. So in any case, this thing is going to follow Bitcoin. The thing will follow Bitcoin. No, but I'd really like to give you the answer, you know. I'd like to, but I don't actually know. What I do know is that there's the short squeeze. What I do know is that it recovers and we understand why it becomes institutionalized. The Clarity Act is coming. What I do know is that from a 4-year cycle perspective, in terms of tanics, it doesn't fit unless we really match with the very first ber, but that was a ber before the first Alvin, which took place in 2012. After that, we can indeed say that it might fit because the previous bou hadn't achieved the boule objectives. So, having not achieved the historical objectives of bullrun, we end up with a small ber. Well, in the end there are plenty of arguments on both sides. Let's keep it simple, let's look at the technical boundaries and I place this technical boundary between 83 and 87. A renewed upward surge is something we'll have to admit. The cradle is finished and we've had a tiny one and it's already starting a new cycle. Reject, have a week of rejection below this resistance 83 85. Behind, we know that the market will return to test its lows one last time for a double bottom scenario. and there it fits perfectly with the timing of the three previous versions. So, well, uh, that's what we, uh, will see, dear friends. And uh, that's it, and thank you for listening. Hi