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Hi, I'm Ral Pal and welcome to my show, The Journeyman, where I travel to that nexus of understanding between macro, crypto, and the exponential age of technology. As I've tried to explain and show you, this is one of the most incredible times to be alive. Literally, we have technologies that will change humanity. AI is a technology that will eventually replace us as the apex of intelligence on this planet. These are stupidly big concepts, but they're happening at exponential speed and how it changes the economy and how we have to think through the rise of the robots. We're replacing knowledge workers and manual labors at the same time and it's only just started. And you see, I love to have these conversations with people who really think about these things at depth. And one of the our favorites is Jordi Vissa. So Jordi and I share the macro background, both hedge fund guys. Um we both stumbled into this whole new world and have become obsessed by it in understanding what it means for all of us and how to create the opportunity sets. So let's sit down with Jordi and learn something new. As ever, >> join me, Ral Pal, as I go on a journey of discovery through the macro, crypto, and exponential age landscapes. In the journey, man, I talk to the smartest people in the world so we can all become smarter together. Jordi, welcome back to Real Vision. >> Hi, Raul. >> How are you, my friend? >> I'm I'm great. enjoying the uh the acceleration of AI and the the boringness, the money market movements of Bitcoin. It's very exciting out there. >> Yeah. So, look, as ever, we've got no agenda what we're going to talk about, but we're going to talk about everything. Um, so what where do we want to start? Do you want to start about the macro? Do you want to start about technology? Where do you want to start? >> I always love starting with uh with the macro because I I think we're we're leaving a world. So, let's get the stuff that's in the rearview mirror and let's get into the stuff that's happening now and the stuff of the future. >> Perfect. Let's do it. Perfect. >> Okay. Here, let let's do it this way. I'll just give you kind of my um my latest uh things that I'm writing about which I think are the most important. So the the the Fed um let's say pivots towards worrying about labor and that happens in in August at Jackson Hole and you get all the cries from people that are worried about inflation and the cries from people that are believe the Fed is making a a policy mistake and I think you and I are both you know in this point of that eventually labor is going to be disrupted by uh by exponential innovation. And I've written two pieces this week specifically on the fact that it's here, it's now, and as we leave 2025, the number one most important thing for people is this year was a transition year where inference um started to accelerate in terms of token usage, which leads us into the next stage of artificial intelligence, which I, you know, I've called stage two, where stage one was where these machines and these bots went through undergrad and they've graduated. They have 160 IQ now. And that number is only going to continue to compound every every month and as every release comes out. But that just means we're closer and closer to knowledge workers being disrupted. And knowledge workers make up a huge percentage of of obviously the United States labor. And that's going to start in in much bigger fold this year. And the problem is, you've already seen Walmart. Now, you've seen Amazon make the headlines. You've seen Asensure. Three of the four biggest private employers in the country have all said, uh, we're we're not going to be hiring. Um, we, you know, we'll hire eventually and we'll, but they've they've openly said that they're not hiring. And I'll just bring this up because I I highlighted this chart last week, which is if you have a long-term chart of earnings per share and you overlay it with two separate labor indicators. One, just temp employers, temp employees hired, um temps have been going down consistently now, uh really since 2022. Um exactly right around the point that Chad GPT got launched. Uh and then secondly is just the jolts number which obviously went up dramatically during COVID but has come back down. But those two things were very very much correlated almost exactly to earnings per share in the S&P. So we've entered that very dangerous point where especially from the big companies like Amazon who are spending lots of money, they need to be reducing employees to stay competitive. And I think one of the mistakes people have made is that they actually believe number one AI is not going to do that. That's a mistake. You and I both know that. Number two, they kind of view it as well, the companies are not going to fire the people. And the reality is in a capitalist world where your shareholders determine and your board determines what you're doing, you are absolutely going to see profit margins be the way that people are going to focus on. And I think we're at that inflection point right now where this labor situation which has reached levels unprecedented where you could have nominal GDP growing at 5% and no creation of jobs outside of health care. We're already seeing it. And I just don't think enough people that I'm speaking with recognize how quickly this has come on and how we're at the very beginning stages of something that goes exponential in terms of the labor side and how do you catch up to exponential? So, this is never going to get better on the labor side. It's only going to either stay the same or worsen. And I think that has huge implications. And that's what I've been writing about lately. >> So, does that mean that unemployment rises or or or we just stop employing people as GDP grows? >> Well, see, this is an interesting question. This is the way I've been framing it for people lately because you and I both know that I mean, one of the charts that you highlight a lot is the labor force participation rate. Okay. Okay. Well, the labor force participation rate I've redefined as the rate of people who need to work because you end up in a situation where there's two things that can make people not need to work. One is they're fully on transfer payments which means they're getting money from the government. They're getting subsidies. They're getting the the the transfer payments which have been built up in social security and everything else. Or they've made enough money because they've had enough money in stocks. But either way, it's a need to work thing. So, you've had a lot of people leave the labor force. And I think the labor >> or it's an age thing, right? If you're in your 80s, you're unemployable. >> Yes. And and I think to a degree, I'm including a lot of the older people in the side of being receiving pensions or receiving something like that. But you're right, there there is there's an inability to be in which the demographics keep worsening. And I know you guys highlight the demographic side. For me, the reason this is important is because even just since May, the labor participation rate, I think, is down 0.5. We'd be at a point where the unemployment rate would be closer to five right now if the labor if the labor force hadn't shrunk. And so the problem is as the labor force participation rate goes down, we'd be closer to 8% unemployment if we didn't have it fall so much since the great financial crisis. And I think >> also to do with immigration as well. Well, immigration theoretically should be reducing the supply of labor. And this is kind of my big issue is when people talk about the fact that immigration is becoming an issue for the hiring numbers, that's all well and good, but then why would the conference board differential be worsening so much, saying that the anxiety for workers is that they won't be able to get a job? So, that doesn't match up with the surveys and then people can say, "Well, that's Trump related. That's whatever." The reality is it's the hiring market has absolutely worsened. And that's why I bring up Asenture, I bring up Walmart, I bring up Amazon because Amazon has the same amount of employees as it did in 2022. So they're about to reduce again. The issue is if you look back at their employees and the growth they had from 2007 up until now, it was a linear line. I mean it was literally like it just went up by nominal GDP every year and now it's not growing anymore. So, we've broken the connection where as GDP goes up, we don't need to hire any people. And you and I have talked about this before, but I think one of the big macro mistakes that's happened that has led to people not understanding why we don't have recessions anymore. Yes, the Fed has these liquidity facilities, but the other thing is we just saw seven companies go from a trillion half dollars to 15 trillion, 16 trillion, 17 trillion, 18 trillion in market cap, and they took no debt to do that. That has never happened before in the history of mankind with capitalism. So you had a breakdown in those relationships of nominal GDP versus debt. Well, now you're having a breakdown in nominal GDP versus people. They both have to do with software and they both have to do software was already doing this. R is really my point. We just didn't call it the same thing is what's happening with AI because AI is a more dangerous thing. >> Yeah. And it's hypers scaling. >> Yes. You know the speed of the acceleration of this. So what does that mean before we dig in more into the AI side? What does it mean for the economy? It puts the Fed reaction function towards cutting more or do they realize what the problem is and it's like well this is not a stimulus-based thing. Is it a fiscal thing that ends up happening? What what is the outcome of this because growth is not going to slow. So unfortunately um if you go back to the let's use the K-shaped economy, we know the bottom end of the K needs is very dependent on interest rates by definition. So whether it's commercial real estate, whether it's um whether it's real estate itself, whether it's auto sales or whether it's individuals, they depend on the fiat system which is credit based. They need to borrow money to go through this. Where the things on the top end, wealthy people, the mag seven, they don't care about interest rates. In fact, the higher interest rates go, the more they benefit from it. So, I think what it's done and I think what has happened is this still becomes a relationship between the dual mandate. And the reason that I think it makes sense for the Fed to be cutting is that everyone's fears about inflation were wrong. Um, and there's just no other way to say it. I mean, the tariff numbers are as high as what people were worried about back in April. And yet, we're not getting the inflation that everyone thought feeding through. And that's because, as you and I both know, I mean, AI is an incredibly deflationary, >> the most deflationary thing that could ever exist. >> Yeah. So, again, if you're going to hit labor and wages on every metric have gone lower since the peak in in in 2021, 2022, uh I just don't see how they're going to be able to do anything other than cut rates. Now, the administration, and this is something that I don't hear people talk enough about, this White House is filled with AI people in it all the time. And you don't have to believe in everything about AI, meaning I'm not an AGI person, meaning I don't believe in the concept that there's this magical thing that just kicks in and there's one winner and everybody loses. I do believe in artificial and general intelligence. I do believe in it being deflationary, but they've put the boogeyman in both the White House. China's worried about it because from a military perspective, but honestly, these are I mean, Deis Sopus does not want to rule the world. I mean, he seems like a really nice guy who just won the Nobel Prize, and when he talks about things, he talks about people living forever and him being able to be a part of that. I think Elon Musk cares about putting people on Mars. I don't think he's into making more trillions of dollars. They're not driven by this thing. I mean, they're gamers, they're nerds, they're people that are trying to do stuff. So, I think when in the context of the way Wall Street looks at this stuff, they're still focused on the monetary policy side where I think monetary and fiscal are going to be aligned, which is we have an inequality situation which is only going to worsen. And the more deflationary it is, the worse the situation gets. And so, I think their job is going to be to help people, especially when we go into a midterms. The one big beautiful bill was structured in a way that the ramp up of everything is going to happen as we get into the first half of next year leading into that. So for everyone who's out there wondering what the economy is going to look like, the Fed's cutting rates. Global central banks around the world have been cutting rates and the PMI hasn't started to rise yet. And I think a lot of that had to do with the fears over China and the fears over the whole tariff situation. I think everything is going to go higher because of all the spending in capex, all the pent-up stuff from the one big beautiful bill and all the rate cuts which we know is a leading indicator for all of the things that will go higher. And so I don't think people are ready for a situation where the economy is going to be growing at the same time that rates are coming down. >> Yeah, I get the same read of this. And the other thing is the ongoing refinancing of the debt means the ongoing liquidity. We're seeing China printing money. You know, all of that whole game, the everything code game is still at play. One of the things that's happening right now is the government shutdown, which means that the Treasury can't spend the generary Treasury general account, which is actually the only straightforward liquidity mechanism they've got because they aren't using the balance sheet and the reverse repos drain. So, >> the moment the government shutdown opens up, then liquidity starts pouring in and then we've got the change to the SLRs coming and then the reserve requirements to banks next year. I mean, there's a ton of this stuff that's kind of orchestrated to allow liquidity to flow. >> Yeah. And even though it won't be QE, the reality is QT is ending. The Fed's balance sheet is going to minimum stay the same, but you're going to have less of the duration selling, more of the money in the front end. And again, I think it just >> Yeah, it's more liquidity. You don't have to call it QE, but it's like, okay, that money is going to get levered up. I mean, there's just it's a fractional reserve banking system. It's going to get levered up. So, >> and what impact I'm trying to think this thing through. Um, impact the government shutdown has. My guess is they won't remploy all of the people that are furoughed. >> That is potentially a shock. And >> I think they Scott Bessant certainly would like that because it forces the Fed to cut faster, which he needs because of the K-shaped economy. >> Yeah. And I think that's where they're going to try to heir on the side of the government employees which I you know again if people don't realize I mean you're talking about one of the largest employers in the country >> and was the growth in the jobs numbers. >> Absolutely. And I mean if people don't know it I mean you're talking as much as Amazon holds the government has 20 times the size of Amazon. So it's like when you go through the numbers guys I mean and that doesn't include the contractors and the people that are associated that's just the pure government employees. So, I think we all realize that there needs to be a lot of innovation in there. And I think the job situation, they're going to force it out of the public sector and into the private sector, and that's not a good that's not a good game for job creation to be doing that and moving through it. And so, again, I I I agree with you. I just don't think this is going to be a an environment where job creation is going to happen. And without job creation, it's very difficult for me to get to the point that inflation is going to happen. and very difficult when the inequality is there because at the end of the day, inflation has a component which is driven by the median voter and the median person in the economy. And that's when you get into this. The wealthy people don't spend more money because stocks are going up or they don't go to the supermarket and buy more of goods, it's still a volume game. And if the average person can't afford their groceries the same way, it actually has a negative or deflationary. It offsets the thing. So the inequality to me um is a very deflationary thing as well. on and so I think it reinforces >> so that puts 2026 as a very strong year potentially for asset prices and economies, right? Because we've got kind of everything swimming in the same direction. >> Yeah. I I I think the part that's been left out this year will participate next year. I've kind of called next year the year of things that people don't want to invest in to be honest with you. Um, so the Mag 7 to me, uh, I I view them as having having trouble out over the next three to five years. I I don't see them being in a a good situation just based on my own views around AI. And this all differs for people, but I think that the def a diffusion index like the PMI is really about, you know, 60% of companies finally benefiting. Well, between rate cuts coming, that helps a lot of companies. Um, between obviously the margin um benefits that are coming from the companies that have been investing in AI, they're going to do well. But the infrastructure buildout is massive. And I will tell you, Raul, I am shocked every day as someone who spends their entire life writing about artificial intelligence, but also in just simplifying it. Um, and I always start with Nvidia and I just start with the amount of power and gigawatts that we need and it's a very simple equation. how anyone can be negative unless there's inflation and I'm going to say that and I don't think without oil prices going sharply higher which is not part of this that you can have a inflation environment where wages are under control because we have a weak labor market and where oil is not going sharply higher without those two dynamics even if electricity prices start to go higher I think the hyperscalers are going to be forced to pay for it um I just see this as the Mag 7 are not the winners except for Nvidia and Tesla I'm very bullish on both of those. Uh I just think the rest of them, the spenders as I call them, are going to have a hard time and maybe Apple, but definitely the spenders are going to have a hard time. >> We'll come on to energy in a sec, but just finishing on the macro side. So there's a lot of people think like the end of the cycle, whether it was the crypto cycle, the business cycle, whatever is this year because normally it's four years. From what you look at, what I look at, that doesn't seem to be the case. We haven't even picked up. So we haven't had a cycle yet. So we've got this kind of stretched out kind of the K side of it has been very long and grinding while the the top side of the K is obviously rocketed with liquidity and financial conditions. >> Ro the so I've spent a lot of time because as I got you know and I was telling telling Nico before we got on here that you know my first event for crypto was at your event in in Miami this year and I got to meet a lot of people. I got to learn a lot about, you know, kind of what had happened. Now, those were traders. Over the course of this year, I've been more involved with meeting people, let's say, that were that lost a lot of money in in 2021 and 2022 that were on the investor side. I think one of the things that we all have to understand with inside this space is that 2022 really was a much more important event than we all realize in terms of of it causing a a bare market without actually seeing it. Like as far as I'm concerned, the K-shaped economy, that stuff on the bottom, it was really hurt badly by a bubble that happened in 21 and 22. And there's no way to put it. It it was a bubble. And it was a bubble for VCs spending money on SAS companies and on crypto. And I don't think we appreciate how when AI came in late 2022, that was also an incredibly disruptive force. And the reason it was disruptive and how crypto and the VC world are aligned, if SAFS, those investments in SAS don't come back, then they have a lot of money trapped in crypto already and in SAS. And I I believe that this has been an overhang that reminds me a lot coming out of the.com bubble which took a long time to get out. And this overhang that's felt shows up in supply. What Bitcoin's going through at this point this year, we saw in Ethereum earlier in the year. We saw in Salana, there was just a lot of supply that had to have been investors and people that own businesses and things that still needed to liquidate in something. And only now do I think between the PMIs and the Fed cutting rates that we're actually going to see that go up. I think on the crypto side, we're getting through the supply. And I've spent a lot of time I heard your interview with Novo, uh, whether it was last week or the week before. Um, and and I listened to a lot of the things he said. I actually quoted them a couple times in the past week because he talked about the selling that was happening and how they had >> Yeah. When he sold for one OG, what was it? 14 billion. >> Yeah. I think it was nine. What he said? >> N billion. Yeah. Whatever. Yeah. Yeah, >> huge number. >> It was a huge number. And then subsequently, I've heard more and more. And I've heard from most people, and you and I spend our time as macro people like, who's selling? Where is this coming from? And the reports have been that all of it's been coming from Asia. It hasn't been it's it's been mainly from Asia. I've heard China a lot of times, but regardless of where it's from, I also think there's another element of AI that has disrupted at least part of this. And people don't they don't spend enough time. I spent a lot of time on the Bitcoin miners and understanding the relevance they have. Um they are overwriters constantly. They need to hedge out their um their supply or what they hold uh to deal with their earnings. But also in China, you've had a lot of stories going around this year about banning on more mining and cracking down on people. And this is I know it happened in 2021, but there's been a lot more stories and a lot more reports. And I know from my own investigation in this that this year has been a very scary time for global central banks in terms of what Trump and the administration is doing with stable coins and everyone's worried about is the US now creating a digital economy which is going to be backed by the dollar and this is going to be this whole thing. So I think there's been a lot of things with artificial intelligence and with crypto this year which have been disruptive. I think the overhang has been there. And I think most importantly for everyone out there, you've been able to make money in things like Nvidia and Micron and Chinese stocks and energy stocks and all kinds of semis where you can get three, four, five baggers, six baggers, quantum stocks, retails had other places to play this year. And so if crypto is not working, they're really smart. Like, okay, I'll wait till it comes back. When it's easy money again, I'll come back in. So I think that is typical of coming out of a bare market. Um, I think that's typical of wait till we get back into it and I see it broadening out next year. So, I do believe the four-year cycle myth which does match up with the S&P and NASDAQ going down. I think that is uh ridiculous with rates being cut, earnings accelerating, uh, and this the buildout of capex which is going to be $5 trillion to get to 100 gawatts by 2030. Uh unless you're going to bet against that, which a lot of people seem to be hoping is not going to happen, it's gonna happen and that's going to keep the earnings growing. >> Yeah. I mean, how I frame this is look, there is a cycle, a business cycle like I mean, you got me to that point where I too don't believe there's recessions. I don't think they're possible. Um which is still very contentious to most people, but you know, there's a lot of thought behind that. That's not just a statement, you know, puck from thin air. And so we do get some liquidity slowdown, business cycle slowdown and that happens in let's say 27 mainly whenever it is end of 26 27 the next cycle I I don't think the draw downs will be big. It's like 2012 2013 you kind of NASDAQ fell like 20% or so went sideways for 6 months and then took off like a rocket ship. Yep. >> That's what I fear is about to happen. That we're about to go into a full spectacular beautiful bubble, but next time around I, you know, into 2030 is going to be something quite spectacular. >> Yeah, I'm I'm on the same page, although I have so I have one eye open. Um, so I I I've spent a lot of time trying to figure out in my mind when we get to a point that when we get to the point where humanoids are real, and when I mean real, I mean where it's a foregone conclusion that 5 years from now there's going to be millions of them out there. Um, abundance is a very scary thing to me. And I've had to come to terms with what it actually means and for me because it's it's it's very bad for labor. It's very bad for politics and society. and how do you get through this whole identity breaking thing which I'm sure I'm sure you've either thought about or you've had people on which have talked about it and I've kind of come to the conclusion that when people say well there has to be a form of UBI. I actually think um and I don't know who said this first but someone when I was really doing my research on Bitcoin said Bitcoin's all about time. You have to understand you're you're getting your time back. You know what's interesting about that is um everything in the fiat system takes time. It's all about borrowing money for 20 years out. Well, if every day moves what used to be a year, then you're not borrowing money for the future because the future is completely unpredictable. So, it doesn't happen. So, eventually what goes on is the entire leverage in the fiat system has to come down. It has to. If the money is moving into stable coins, what's replacing and I this is going to get into something which I'm sure you've had charts of before, but you remember how back in the early 2000s we would look at the money velocity chart, you had to get money velocity up. >> Yeah. >> Well, with AI agents, you know what's going to happen? The velocity of money is going to go through the roof. >> Same with stable coins. Those two combined velocity. >> That's what I mean is that the AI agents will be trading stable coins so fast. the other engine, the other fiat system, the one that has cycles. And the reason so people get I don't think there's recessions is because I believe the economy is now 70% the digital economy, 30% the fiat in terms of growth rates, but the size of the fiat system is still much bigger than the digital one. And so the cycles still exist in the fiat system. We're seeing that with commercial real estate. We're seeing it just doesn't matter as much because it's not as important as it used to be. >> And because those digital companies don't have debt, so they can't blow up. I mean, that's point number one. That's the most important thing. >> And that's why corporate interest payments collapsed when rates went higher. And I remember showing that chart to people going, "Do you understand this is exactly? It's cuz the Mag 7 are loaded with cash and all the people that have debt don't equal the size of the cash these people have." Like, you're watching this stealing sound going into these companies. It's not that complex. Um so I've kind of come to the conclusion that by 2030 I do think the the stock market valuation will change. Um and the reason it will is because theoretically like I'll use Nvidia as an example. So you probably I I'll give you some numbers. So the current forecast for revenues for Nvidia uh for sellside the average is about $425 billion for 2030. They're currently just over 200. Okay. Okay, so let's assume it's 225. So they're going to double. The problem is we know there's going to be 100 gawatts minimum that needs to be built out globally. So if you do the numbers and it's 50 billion a gigawatt, that's $5 trillion of capex and we need this stuff. Now that's using today's prices. So no inflation. So let's leave it exactly the same. And right now Nvidia has a complete dominance on the data center side. That's for data centers. So you can go do the math. the out of the 50 billion about 40% on the low end is for the compute and the rest of it is the power and the concrete and the stuff like that with power being majority of it. So when you do the math they've put in almost a 0% chance that Nvidia is going to keep their market share or that the capex is going to happen. It's like a 10 15% in my probabilistic. That's why until that number gets to the point that it's actually high then consensus on the AI buildout is just very low. People don't believe in it >> because you can hear it in everybody's voice. There's a bubble in calling for an AI bubble. >> Yes. And you're hearing it in the people we know and we talk to. The people with money. The more money you have, the more you doubt it cuz you've been through this before and this looks like a bubble. But if you don't have money and you're just trading all day, you're making money on it. Like you're like, "All right, I'm you know what my number one input in input is? It's called momentum." And then I go on X and everyone says I buy nuclear, I buy quantum, I buy this, and that's all I do. So you don't have to go do your research. You don't have to go through it. And as long as that's happening, retail is dominating this. So as long as Nvidia's probability is low, then I think this stuff will go higher. It's the bubble will occur when Wall Street starts to price Nvidia at a level where they've built it in. >> I.e. the cynics suddenly realize that this is the endgame, right? It's like the greatest invention humanity will ever create. >> Yes. >> People don't realize that yet. So they're cynical about it. >> Yeah. But once they get there, the amount of money is going to get thrown into this. And then after that, I don't know anymore because we've then got >> AGI or whatever trading the markets. How do you price markets? Maybe markets go sideways for 20. I have no clue. >> But I just see that strength. >> It's so obvious to me. Sure, we'll get a slowdown and a correction period for a bit, but then after that, everybody's going to have to throw their money into this because there's no other choice. >> What would speed the process up is if computers were managing the majority of the money. So, they would take Nvidia up because the probability is it makes no logical sense, but there's two there's two forces. There's Wall Street and then there's passive investors who are doing nothing. And so there's there's a lot of money that isn't actively managed. And then for the stuff that is actively managed by humans, they don't agree with it because they've been through this before. And as I you know, I've been using the Charlie Munger quote. Show me the your incentive. I'll show you the outcome. There's no incentive for wealthy people to bet on AI because they've already made money. And the outcome is if they're wrong, they don't want to be wrong. I've learned that only through why don't you like Bitcoin? And I've been to enough dinners now. I don't know how you handled it for so many years. Why don't you buy it? I I can't deal with there's always one of them at the table. I was at a Russell Napier dinner recently and there was one guy at the table. I'm like, "Are you kidding me? Now I have to do the Bitcoin thing." So, I just kind of shut down and I laid low. But Tesla's the same thing. >> People I mean, at least Tesla, there's a human being and he's built four other companies that are massive and done all these things and he wants to go to Mars. But Bitcoin and Tesla are the exact same thing. No one believes in them. Sir, you know, if you've ever wished you could ask me a question, any question 24/7? Well, now you can. The RalPal bot is my AI assistant trained on all of my insights, macro research, macro views, even wine and travel knowledge. The Ralbot is available for everybody who subscribes to either Connect, Alpha, or Pro. It can really change your life. You get me as your mentor 24/7. The link's in the description. I think you're going to love it. It's bizarre. Um, so when I'm also looking at this, the energy side has got my attention and I think there's a layup trade. When you break down the urgency by which we need the energy that rules out nuclear now, of course, the investment comes and it takes 7 8 10 years before it rolls out. Sure. But by thinking that nuclear is the answer right now, it's not. The the need is so urgent and so pressing because this is not just the margins for the hyperscalers. This is the humanity scale technology that is the game of nations now. Right. There is no way you can lose zero. >> And the US government is showing it by buying stakes in companies. Exactly. >> This is the size of this. Right. This is the most important thing. >> We are China now. We are buying companies privatizing >> because there is no choice. Right. This is the most important thing we will ever >> So it's like okay fine oil's not going to be part of the equation. It's just too slow to to build anything. The existing infrastructure of the electricity grid is too crappy. We cannot rebuild it at national scale. >> So it's going to have to be a decentralized grid and it has to happen quickly. And the only answer in the world is solar. And then you add a bit of gas, gas power plants for the load balancing um because they take about two years and gas is abundant, super cheap. You can't get the price of gas up if you tried because there's like infinite supply of this bloody stuff. So that's I'm like and then I look at the TAN ETF and it's like down 90%. I'm like >> because everyone's so cynical from getting burnt in a excess capacity cycle last time around. I'm like I know these trades. I love these trades. These are the Lindy effect trades. He's like, "Is solar going away?" No. Look what China's done. They've added more solar capacity in China than all of the world's total solar capacity in one year. And it's like I think they know the game here. >> Yeah. >> So, what what is your thoughts on the whole energy thing? >> So, until this is another place where I wanted to make sure I I understood the the complexity. So on the gas side, theoretically, if they could, they would try to do all gas because it's quicker and because it doesn't take as much land. So the problem with solar is obviously these are big gigantic fields. >> Yeah. But not that big. >> Well, for so for the US to get to the gigawatts that are necessary, which is a big buildout. Um like in the case of Nevada where they're building this big one, they've had to stop it and move it around. And so even though they're not that big in terms of we could do it, they definitely take a shorter amount of time to put together than building out obviously a plant. But in terms of if you could gas turbines, if they were all available right now and you could get them all, they'd be doing gas turbines and everything because we have available gas. It's just do we have it near places? And I think they'd figure >> Do we have pipelines? Exactly. Because people forget that you got to pipe the damn stuff. >> Exactly. So that becomes very politically difficult because you got to get it through California and they don't want it and they have to get it through you know wherever. >> Yeah. And that's the thing I think with solar is the one big beautiful bill got people thinking that they don't want solar. The reality is like you said it's a race. We have to get it done. And when you realize the shortage we have in transformers and in gas turbines, you have no choice but to go another route. And the solar route is going to be part of it. The battery route is going to be part of it. When you start getting lithium investments, that's them pretty much admitting that, okay, we need batteries. And it's not just for drones, and it's not just for humanoids and defense weapons. It's also for, okay, there's a reason why Elon Musk, when he built Colossus, he's got his big battery packs. There's a reason why his battery part of his his his site is growing. This also brings the Bitcoin miners in because of the grid optimization because what the Bitcoin miners are able to do and this has been something that I learned more about this year and this is actually important thing for people to hear because I do think it'll bring the traditional finance world every day there's a new way for them to invest in crypto. You obviously had the circle IPO so stable coins have finally I mean people didn't even hear of stable coins a year ago. >> Another one I need to talk about. I'm sorry I keep writing notes of things that he talked about. >> So that got in there. But the Bitcoin miners are another place. And the reason is because they're directly connected to AI. They've built out these data centers. They have this equipment. And in the case of Texas, they have 4 gigawatts of the 80, I think it's about 85 to 88. So it's a sizable portion. Now, the value that they bring to the UK um to Texas is the fact that if you have um solar, obviously at nighttime they're not using they're not producing anything. So what is important is that the prices even during the lower times are higher during the off times. And this is what the Bitcoin miners do because they're arbitrageers. So they do things when the price is really low. So it's kind of like having a restaurant where you're closed at night. Well, if you could have orders at night when the tables are empty, then your business is more profitable. So what the Bitcoin miners do is they act as virtual batteries. Um, and so if OOTT's having a problem like it had in 2022 and pipes are freezing and the electrical prices are going through the roof, then they can call the Bitcoin miners and they'll take their they won't mine anymore. And so the miners have become important and the reason that is in there is that more and more people are looking at grid optimization no matter where they are. And this was a big negative because Bitcoin miners were negative on the EF ESG side. In fact, everyone when I got into the Bitcoin side was like, "Oh my god, this is so inefficient." And so everyone is starting to connect. So I do think when you go through the power side, people have to look at so many places across the power side. We're going to be using batteries. We're going to be using solar. We're going to be using boilers. We're going to be using generators. We're going to be using everything because like you said, it's a necessity. And the gas turbine shortage of which there's I think four really four or five companies that make gas turbines of any kind of size in the world. If there's a shortage there, that's five companies that are not supplying the power. They're holding things up. And so a small boiler company, a small B battery company, uh nuclear like investments. This is kind of the PMI thing. Those dollars start kind of moving around into other places and solar is definitely going to be one of them for sure. >> Yeah. And you just see the scale of which China is doing it and the signal in that that they're not going to destroy capital for the sake of it. There's a race to get energy. The energy thing is also misunderstood by people. People say, "Well, solar's rubbish because as soon as the sun goes down, you got four hours of battery life, then it's all over. It's shit." Okay, what I say is, okay, grid can supply this much electricity. If you try and plug the hyperscalers into the grid, grid is finished, right? Electricity prices go to the moon. It doesn't work. >> Yeah. >> So, you take as much off- grid as possible. So, they're only calling for 25% of their needs on grid. >> Yep. I mean, that's that's how it works. But people just look at everything in isolation because for some bizarre reason, solar is politicized and they're like, "Solar bad, oil good." I'm like, "Fuck, it's just energy." And the entire game the world is in is intelligence per unit of energy. That's the game we're in now. The whole world is in one game. >> Yeah. One of the things you said an important point there and I think people have to um they have to recognize that as of now what the hyperscalers have effectively used was excess capacity on the grid. >> Yeah. >> We we have if we have a recession which we have outside of the hyperscalers they were just using what would have been used by I mean >> yeah if the commercial buildings are empty then they're not using them. if auto like you can't have the nominal GDP slow down outside of digital and not have electricity usage go down. So where the electricity usage is going up is geared towards the LLM and towards training them. So once you get and I think next year is the forecast that most people have where we will then be at full capacity. That's where the buildout becomes critical. So I think one of the reasons that this hasn't been, you know, violent, when you go to, you know, three mile island, when you go make all these deals, when Elon Musk imports a basically a gas plant from overseas, it's because he can't get through things here. And whether it's the state regulations which have become an issue or other things um I think people will have to recognize that when you go through excess capacity again you start to get the PMIs go higher PMIs at the end of the day are about a diffusion index and if you have excess capacity and you're not running you know at a full throttle situation it becomes an issue and I think that's where we're going to be at. The other thing on batteries just so people know um I'm spending a lot more time on the edge problem. The reason I brought up the humanoids is kind of the level where I think the stock market when people jump into humanoids because right now most investors are like it doesn't matter. I'm like no it's starting next year and this is my my hot take for here. The first humanoids in full development will definitely happen next year. It's the Tesla robo taxi which is real humanoids on wheels. And that will open up people to do the homework. And the reason that's so important is because we're going to start getting into the brain being in the devices, the edge devices. So, everyone has to realize that >> Elen's even talked about using all of the yesterday, which is something I don't know, maybe you and I have talked about in the past, that they've all got latent computing in all of these cars. >> Yeah, >> there's millions of these damn things. You just need to connect them, which he's happens to own the network. >> Oh, what a surprise. Well, this is the reason why I you probably last week um or two weeks ago uh Andre Carpathy uh had a had a podcast come out with Dark Cash Patel. Yeah. >> And I got a bunch of things sent to me going, "Oh, this must mean he's saying no AGI till till 2035. I guess we have a bubble right now." I'm like, "Okay, first of all, it's kind of like the recession thing. It depends on how you define it. We're actually in a recession right now in many parts of the economy." He's saying AGI is when the computers in the brain are interacting with the world like a human, which I happen to agree with. If you ask me what is not AGI, it's when a computer can do a bunch of knowledge work, but that's it. It needs to interact. >> Yeah. Well, I don't I don't even know because if we gone back three years and said where we are today, we would say, "Yeah, that's AGI." >> Oh, yeah. >> We've got agents acting autonomously. We've got memory. But we just keep moving AGI because when we have AGI, we're declaring ourselves not the apex species. Nobody's going to declare it because nobody wants to. But that's the fact is the moment we announce it, we have replaced ourselves with a new apex species, which has never happened to all of humanity. >> Correct. Um, correct. And again, it the the robo taxis can already drive better than than humans. Yes, I I do believe that the interaction between a humanoid and human beings, it's not there yet. I mean, they can do stuff. They'll be in mines, they'll be in factories, they'll be in all of this stuff, but before they go into a house with kids, they actually need to improve a lot. Um, and that was his point. and whether or not it happens, you know, in the future or not, but the reality is we will be sticking these brains inside these devices that don't have time to wait for the latency to go to the cloud and come back down. And that's the whole point of like we're entering a different stage. And for batteries and power, it has huge implications. There's also the semi side where it was one semiconductor that was benefiting from the data center buildout. And the reason I use Nvidia, so Nvidia is the data center side. It's the oil. It's whatever you want to do of this thing. But now you're getting into every semiconductor going higher like Micron and SKHEX and extending into the smaller ones. And the reason is because when you make brains inside an edge device that is different than a data center. They need different packaging. They need all this stuff to happen. And so I think that's going to be the next phase of of AI is that brain part and the battery part. >> Yeah, I I totally agree. And Elon's made this clear as well. It's like what what the hell do you think my satellites are? >> Exactly. >> He goes, they're just a bit of solar and a computer. You know, if this is not telling you that, then nothing is. That's another thing about the electricity thing. You made a good point that I had not thought of and I think this there's going to be a lot of signal in what you said is who's going to pay for the increase in electricity if it's caused by the hyperscalers. It's going to be the hyperscalers. >> Absolutely. >> Right. we have to tax them in a way to replace the economic rent that they take out of the system and get give it back to people um in some way because if not the system does not work. If the machines make all the money how do the people you know we talked about this a lot but that feels like it's a really obvious place to start. >> Yeah. And that starts to get into this point that I was making about so if you get to abundance and the robots are making all the money theoretically. So if they're making all the money, then that means the government's making the money because the government owns the robots and blah blah blah. And so the money gets equally distributed the profits. So it's the country becomes profit sharing, meaning okay, everyone has a share in the economy and you're all getting a certain amount. That's really what UBI is in abundance. But before we get to that point, the reality is Bernie Sanders has talked about taxing any companies that are using robots. So actually taxing the companies. Forget the the the belief in this. I think the first taxation will come from the electricity side, meaning you guys are going to have to pay for >> this is much easier than saying to Amazon, that's a robot, that's not a robot. That's really hard to do. >> Yeah. And it's cheap, too. We We haven't gone through, you know, people don't realize the numbers, but when you go through the electricity spend in a year, I hate to tell everyone. I I know it feels bad when you're spending it, but your electricity bill is not as much as your car insurance. It's not as much as your homeowner's insurance. Like, it's not >> your life. >> Exactly. So to the hyperscalers, this is an odd lot for everything. I think Jeff Bezos could play for everyone's electricity bill for like the rest of time and no one would ever know. >> I think that's a really good way. So as opposed to taxing further down the chain, you just tax at the beginning of the chain. Say, well, you can't have compute without electricity, so we'll just charge you for that. >> Yeah. >> Whatever it is per kilowatt, and that's your tax, and off you go. Keep doing it. >> Yeah. I heard someone and I forget where this was on but you can go go look it up on your own of the margin inside what they get. So like for the 20 bucks they charge for using chat GPT the electricity cost is is zero. It's literally nothing. Here's an interesting one. So I was talking a lot about about okay it's commonly accepted that humans are the most efficient compute that exists right we we take in very little food out of it comes whatever IQ consciousness and all of these things right pretty amazing plus all this biological stuff so we're pretty amazing and I I mentioned it to Emmad and he's like you don't get it I'm like why I'm like this is true like no and I it's dawned on me these models if you think of the share that my instance of chat GPT uses in electricity let's assume that let's assume they break even from charging me for what services and I pay $200 a month for the pro so for $2,000 a year of food the entire cost I get 160 IQ in every subject known to humanity. >> Exactly. >> So these things are already more efficient than humans. And I don't think people are ready to understand this yet. Which is why to go back to your early conversation. Well, every company's going to replace humans because they're so they're so much more efficient. Not just in terms of employment costs, just the pure energy costs. They're now cheaper than us. >> Yeah. And since you've had since you referenced him, Immad has spoken many many times and one of his one of his best quotes is when you're at work and all of a sudden you have an AI person in a team. So let's assume it's one AI and four humans. Well, the smartest person is the AI and the other four I mean that's all you need to think about. Like that is the reality. And so the marginal cost of those employers, the everything that goes associated with it, like someone had made the argument, well, these humanoids are going to be expensive. I'm like, you're not listening to Alon Musk and you're not thinking about it clearly. A human being that works at a company at a Fortune 500 company with health care, with everything is very expensive compared to a humanoid is very few businesses, particularly on Wall Street. I mean, the lowest level person at one of the banks is making more than what a car costs. Well, a car is far more complex to make than a humanoid. It's bigger. Aside from them developing the hand and getting the pieces, once they do that, it's much easier to make those than it is a car. So, it's just a very, very weird thing that people haven't put to context how much money you're saving by having them, including the fact they work 24 hours. You don't have like they don't complain. >> I want to go back to We talk about companies and how people don't understand something. Um, Circle, right? So, Circle IPOed and it rockets up in value and everyone's like, "What the How can how can a stable a money market fund business essentially be trading at this?" And I'm like, I've seen this before and I'm like, there's one of two answers. Either it's a massive bubbling circle and you know every retail wants to buy it and everyone's got it wrong or none of us understand but this is a network stock because as we know Metcast law values things very differently. Most things are network stocks nowadays. And then we saw that announcement yesterday. They've got like a gazillion partners building on top of a network. I'm like well there you go. Because we everybody tries to value this stuff via cash flows and it's the wrong way of doing it. I mean, you you hit on the important thing and I've I you know, one thing I said this year, so I did believe stable coin would be the big thing this year. I'm very surprised Bitcoin's only up whatever it is 18% year to date. But stable coins have been the reality check for everyone and understanding and it was because of the network effects. You can actually grow and the visual or the analogy I've tried to give to people is let's assume there's two casinos right across the street from them. One of them is this old like rotted down one, but it's the one you go to all the time and it's the one you're familiar with. You know everyone in the place and you're a boomer going into that casino and that casino has most of the money. And then across the street is this very shiny casino, brand new, all you don't know anyone though, so it's scary. But once you go over one time and you play in that casino, you're never going back to the old one. And that's what the digital economy is. And that what the network effects are. The network effects will now allow wallets to be open easier. And once the wallet's open and your money's in there, I've I've asked people the same question. Hey, the money you've brought into crypto or the digital economy, have you ever brought it back? >> No. Nobody ever brings it back. No. And that's why I keep saying it's like you can have two casinos. You can be gambling in both, but at some point when the other one's all old and rotted and it's just not fun, you just move over to the one that's young and shiny and everything's better. And maybe it takes everyone dying before the money moves over and you hand it to the kids and they're already over there. But it's happening. And I think what Circle and all of these things are is they're just they're getting more financial volume going through this system. And once more money is in there, once uh and we're not going to get to talk about this this way, but this is another macro thing we could have talked about and I don't know what your view is on this. I was very interested to see what happened with Malay this weekend. And the reason was >> Yeah. How did you read that? >> Well, the way I read it was this. It was a very interesting thing that the administration basically said, "We'll give you 20 billion." They're trying to impact the election. They're trying to get the voters to go that you have the US help. Now, if it didn't work out, everyone who is a local is going to take their money and put it into dollar stable coins. So, the money's coming back in the US. Either way, the US wins in this. So, by using the swap and I believe 100% that this is the mindset now. It's one of the reasons why I think the big sellers in Bitcoin are absolutely out of China. I think it's Bitcoin miners. I think it's family offices that are in mining. I think it's people that have held a lot of this stuff because I think China's cracking down on this whole situation. It's been part of it. And even though that the crackdown's been happening, I don't think enough people are realizing the flow dynamic that's going to happen with stable coins. Stable coins allow for what I didn't see when I lived in Brazil, which is there was a black market, but it was very difficult to get your money outside the country. With stable coins, any individual that's worried about the depreciation of the peso can take it out in a second. So, we learned that with Silicon Valley Bank. I don't know why people didn't think about what could happen in Argentina, very similar to Silicon Valley Bank because a bank in the US which took in all of this money, it was all evaporated in a matter of 48 hours. And the reason was because of the version of stable coins, meaning it was digital money that was able to be taken out very quickly. The same thing will happen at some point with an emerging market country where someone loses the and you're going to have a run on the country and it's going to happen at some point and you've seen the ECB and uh China both publicly talk about the fact that they're worried about the dollar stable coin situation. They don't know how to handle it. China wants their own uh CBDC. They want their own digital yuan. But the problem is I think for these countries uh it's going to be an issue. So that's the reason why I think Argentina was an interesting test case. He won. It didn't go out, but you give money to get the votes and if it doesn't happen, the money is going to come right back into America. >> Yeah. And I think there's a there's a obviously a geopolitics game that finally is getting played in South America, which is like we need all of this as part of our center of sphere of influence. The other thing that's interesting because we were talking about Circle and its IPO and the network effects. >> Stable coins are now network effects on the US dollar. You've made it a digital network layer which can be built on instantaneously at scale by anybody permissionlessly. Holy People have no understanding what that means. It's the financial guard rails are I mean they're going to change rapidly now. So that it's a little surprising that the market cap hasn't grown faster, but I think some of that has to do with clarity not being done yet. I think clarity is a big event. when that occurs and with the timing of everything that's gone on, you're already seeing all these oh JP Morgan allows collateral city that everyone is kind of already starting to think about how the guard rails will be and they have to compete. they have no choice. And today in the market, Fiserve was down huge. It was down 40%. This fintech company and I immediately go into an LLM and go, what is their stable coin plan? And it said in there, well, their stable coin plan is as of June 23rd, 2025. I'm like, okay, did they have one before that? And they didn't. And so the reality is if you don't have if you haven't had a stable coin plan for the last at least few years that's what made stripe very important October of last year when they went out and bought bridge that was a very >> had the plan master card they're all there >> all there already the banks are trying to catch up but I think the financial guardrails are changing tokenization is really the most important part is the next step and I don't think people have fully grasped the tokenization side how important it is >> and also just what we're saying is that we're allow we're now allowing anybody in the world to build on US dollar rails at scale in any country for any person. I mean what does that do to the US as a source of capital? I mean it becomes the world's capital only. I mean this is why China and and Europe are terrified because this is so powerful because everybody uses it. It gives the US the largest weapon ever known, which is the currency. Um, but you just think of what that does for crypto rails, the whole thing. It's like it it can't be overemphasized how big this is. And we haven't we barely started as you said. Next year it's going to be all about stable coins. >> Have you ever had Marco Papich on? >> Yeah, he's on a lot. I I don't speak to him as much. One of the other guys does, but I like Marco. So Marco wrote a very very good piece which he he doesn't talk about much because he wrote it I think at the end of 2021 and it was on the metaverse and I think it was a brilliant brilliant piece and Marco is a he's a young guy a young geomac you don't see a lot of young geomac alpha people >> and he's not a doomer he's like a pragmatist he's very very smart love him >> he he wrote this thing and I and I'm going to bring it back to what you said which is he wrote about a border borderless world and that the metaverse is kind of that symbol of that borderless world. So when we talk about the dollar, I think I think there's uh a valuable lesson I learned. So, I I had the privilege um a couple times to spend a couple hours with Michael Milin, two separate occasions, and we we we brainstormed, we talked about a lot of different things, but in one of the conversations, we were debating the dollar. And he got me off of the concept of the dollar and it being like this thing that matters. And what he said to me in the middle of an argument was, "You're wrong. The dollar can never weaken because you're equating the dollar with something. If tomorrow you opened up the borders of the United States of America and offered people a green card, there'd be 7 billion people in the country tomorrow. And the reason that was important to me in this conversation is because he's right. I've lived in Brazil. I've lived in countries. But America, it's not America. It's the concept of America. It's the freedom. It's the not oppression. It is the entrepreneurs. It's the capitalism. It's the reason why I say Bitcoin reminds me of what people left other countries to came to the US for originally. >> Yeah. The whole crypto thing is just the new frontier economy that's faster growing, more dynamic, more efficient. >> Yes. Now, what that means is for the dollar, I'm going to take it back. So, I believe if AI accelerates to AGI, that's a democratizing event and it knocks down the fiat assets. The problem is the US not only benefits from the digital economy growing, but that's global. Like you said, that's actually built around the world. The money has no home now. So, we view it as treasuries. It gets us out of the debt problem. But theoretically, if I'm right, it's also democratizing for stocks. The US is 70% of MSCI world. I don't think US companies are going to win the AGI battle. Not because they're not great, but because already last week, Airbnb CEO came out and said they're using Quen. There's models being used, Chinese models being used. This is no longer a monopoly on code. We don't have it anymore. They're actually doing open source and commoditized. So, I think the world is going to be building stuff. The world is going to be benefiting from the democratization of intelligence, education, everything that comes along with it. And that's all great for crypto and it's great for the digital economy. It happens slowly to some degree, but I think next year is the year that the governments start to go. If you want an interesting part, when I was this weekend when I did my YouTube video, um I had an overlay of El Salvador's debt versus the Argentine debt completely correlated all until September when the Argentine debt broke down. And if the election had gone wrong, I thought there'd be a run on Argentina while El Salvador's debt was at all-time highs. And that's Bitcoin back. So, I think the pressure that Michael Sailor has talked about where when inequality continues to worsen because of AI, you don't buy Bitcoin because you don't need it. You buy it because you need it. And you need it to survive. And I think more and more people are going to continue on a country level, an individual and company to be zombies where if they want to take a chance, they have to get involved in the digital economy. So I think you're right. I think more and more companies are going to do it and be on those rails. Just a final thought for you because you've mentioned it a few times is like AGI won't be an owned private thing. No one company's going to own AGI. What I've noticed is that in the end, all of the models become pretty interoperable, the same thing. One has a marginal edge over the other, but really they all do the same thing. >> Yeah, >> they're tuned differently. So, one has a nicer voice that you might like or, you know, whatever. It makes more citations the other one. Basically, they're all the same. And reason they're all the same is because we're sharing everything on the internet of everything we're doing with all the models anyway. So, they all see each other's models. So they're all learning from the same thing. And my point about this is that AGI is a state and not a thing because all of them get to the same point where they're basically all interacting with each other in ways that we don't even know that we're doing. But when you're showing you watch it on X all the time, all these people showing their prompts and what it does and how it works and how Claude was different to that. Every one of those models sees all of that stuff and it learns it. it see they all learned everybody else's stuff. You know when it sees like this those group of people now running the trading competition amongst the models well the next training run they'll all know that >> people don't understand how this thing works and therefore AGI is a state of being across all of AI. It'll start somewhere first but it'll be everywhere. I completely agree and I forget who said this but someone who was going through the doomer side of when we get to Agi blah blah blah and they said this and it was kind of a joke but he said it and went you just pull the plug and I laughed because at the end of the day for AGI now eventually maybe we get to a point where the power is been created and is in some tiny little thing but the reality is if you want to get rid of AGI just blow up all the data centers. That'll take us back. There's no AGI. There's no nothing. It's not sitting in the palm of your hand. It's not something that's there. And so, I happen to agree with you that if there's an endgame for this where it can be destroyed. >> I don't think so, my friend. We're compressing these files so big that we can get pretty much the entire history of the internet on a mobile phone. There's no reason >> we can't have AGI on a single chip. What I mean is by the time we would get to that point because we're not anywhere close to that yet. By the time we get to that, and again, forget AGI in and this is where we could be talking about the same thing with just two different definitions. >> Yeah, it's complicated. >> But AGI meaning it goes out of control and it does its own thing and goes on. We're already at the point where we're solving cancer and we're doing things that are just beyond anything. You're talking about an autonomous AI thing that thinks and acts for itself. >> Yeah. >> That's more artificial super intelligence. >> Exactly. >> Than artificial generalized intelligence, which is the broad concept of being basically being smarter than humans at every single subject. >> Exactly. And again for AGI for people that then believe it has to be in humanoids too, which just being smarter than subjects just means you're the smartest student in IQ. that doesn't mean that you're able to interact in the physical world yet. So there's a difference because we haven't trained anything on that yet. Alamas is trying to do that. It's going to take some time. We'll get there. But that's where um yeah, I'm talking more about ASI and more focused on when >> ASI is a whole different thing. >> Yeah. A AGI will be there fast enough and it does mean we solve all science problems. We solve all math problems. We we have Einstein's unlimited Einstein's which means every problem you've ever come up with including you know hacking Bitcoin and all of these things. It's not a quantum thing. It's really a math thing and we're actually making enough progress on this. So I think for everyone who's worried about this or thinking about I we're on the same page in this. I I think it's coming. I think it's a 2030 type thing of at least getting to that. And the thing that should be worrying people is just this company Mker and the story with OpenAI last week which is as is the case and I don't maybe you haven't seen this but the reinforcement learning that's going from experts to make sure that there's artificial and general intelligence. So let's say there's super intelligence for every vertical as opposed to them understanding everything. So by doing reinforcement learning for doctors, for lawyers, for bankers, which is what's going on, that is speeding up the process. So the one thing about capitalism that never goes, these companies are trying to make money. And they're making money by hiring the employees that get fired by Goldman and then bringing them in and going, "We'll pay you hundreds of thousands of dollars and we want you to train the model. basically you're going to be redoing your job the way you would have Goldman Sachs and now you're going to train this model so it's an expert in what you're doing so we can sell it back to Goldman. I mean that's capitalism at its finest. So So final thing um looking forwards into the end of the year and through to next year generally bullish assets. >> We've never had a time where the Fed has cut rates with double digit earnings. we growing. We've never had a time that the Fed has cut rates and if we don't go into a recession the following year that the stock market doesn't go higher. So I feel very confident that the stock market's going higher because I expect profit margins to boom because of the capex side. And then for everyone listening again, the economy will still grow because unfortunately when you're in a K-shaped economy, most of the growing is because of the consumption at the higher end and the higher end is completely stable because they benefit their wages are growing because of the stock market going higher. And so I envision that. I do think it's a midterm election year. I think the labor versus capital story is the major theme. Um, I think you're seeing it it play out in New York City with the the the mayor. Um, I think young people and people that are on the bottom end of the K-shaped economy are upset for for valid reasons. And I think the government has to find ways to write them checks. Um, whether it's a rebate check on the revenues, I don't really care. So, I do think everything is lined up with the rate cuts and everything going on. And so I I'm leaning more towards what you're saying, which is we'll have corrections and we might have a 20% correction, but I do think stocks around the globe will be higher. I think the MAG 7X, Nvidia, and Tesla, I'm just not I think they're going to be a drag on the market. I I just think it's they're not going to go down much. They're fine. Uh partly for accounting reasons and partly because they'll find efficiencies and get rid of people, but I don't see them as being explosive stocks. And the problem is they're this heavy heavy weight. So, I'm not positive on those. I think small caps are going to do phenomenally well at the index level, but that's only because they have so many companies that are going to benefit from some of those macro themes that we just talked about. But I think global stocks will continue to do well. >> Perfect. All right, my friend. I think we probably blown everybody's minds with the amount of things we've talked about in an hour. Very fast as well as as ever. >> We like to do that. >> We love to do it. All right, my friend. Great to see you and uh we'll see you soon. >> You as well, Rob. Okay, another brilliant conversation with Jordi. Just love the guy. Love how he thinks. I love how we have a commonality of language because of our macro backgrounds that we can understand using a similar type of framework of understanding of what this all means for us. Hopefully, you got a lot out of this. This is the stuff that I spend a lot of my time thinking about. Whether it's writing the exponentialist, the research service that's on the Realvision platform or at Global Macro Investor, or even within Realvision Pro, these are the conversations that really matter for us, our futures, and our family's future. See you next time. So, you obviously like this video enough that you've got to the end. That's quite a big task. But listen, do me a favor. 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