When I Googled this family, the words came up were silent dominance, middlemen at planetary scale. >> >> All right, Sam. I have a I have a billy of the week for you. An MFM classic. This is not just any billy of the week. This is one of the biggest billies in America. One that I wasn't really that aware of. I think you will know more than me about this, but I would say most people don't. >> Okay. Wait, can I guess? >> Let me read you Let me tell you three things about it then you can take a guess. >> Okay. >> Okay. All right. It is the largest private company in America for the last 40 years. >> Mhm. >> It is owned 88% by the family and has produced more fam more billionaires in one family than any other company ever. They do more revenue than Goldman Sachs, Nike, and Starbucks combined. >> Ooh, is it Mars or Coke? >> You're in the right neighborhood. >> Estee Lauder? >> Okay, you left the neighborhood briefly. Come back to the other neighborhood of like a sort of rich redneck >> >> families of America. It is Cargill. >> Oh, yes. >> So, the Cargill family. So, I didn't really know anything about this family. Can I just tell you a little bit about their story and and what they do because this is a dominant business story of all time. >> Wait, first tell me why did this interest you? Why this catch your attention? >> Remember you when I was at your house and you were like, "There's this closet here by the way that we found. There's this extra storage room this that we didn't even know till we lived here for 2 months." That's how I felt finding out that one of the most wealthy families in America and I don't know their story. That's how I felt. As the As the host of My First Million, I just felt like I needed to right a wrong. >> Okay, I understand. >> And And the real By the way, how did I find it? There was a Reddit thread that was tell me about billion dollar industries that I probably don't know about. And it was like the first one was sand and the second one was this and the third one is this. Reinsurance. It's like, well, there's insurance companies and then they buy insurance. That's called reinsurance and then the reinsurance, guess what? They have reinsurance companies behind them. It's just insurance all the way down, baby. And so I was reading through this thread and then one was Cargill and I was like, oh, Cargill. So what they did is that the story is um back in the day as America was was sort of getting its feet and railroads had been had been uh started to get built. Farmers needed to offload their crops, their grain, um and they needed to sell them. So they could either sell it individually, so the farm could try to sell individually to a buyer and figure out how to transport it there, or they could work with a middleman. And so Cargill became the biggest middleman on the planet for basically just initially storing grain. So they would go right next to where the railroad is, they would build what's called a grain elevator, which is basically a giant storage facility for grain so that it wouldn't spoil very quickly. And the farmers could come drop it off, they would get like coat check, they'd get an IOU that says, "I will pay you when your grain sells." Or they would just buy it at a flat rate like wholesale and be able to flip it. So you could choose as the farmer which one you wanted to do. >> This is what my father my father does for a living, by the way. >> Oh, so maybe you should have known. >> >> He does it with onions. Onions. But yes, my my father's a a broker. That's what he does. >> Does he store or he just calls one side and say, "Hey, I got 75 bushels of >> This Well, it's fresh produce, so the storage is like a day. But yes, there's a yeah, there is a place where they sit for like 24 hours before a truck comes and gets it. Yeah, but yes. >> And what's interesting to me about this for me from a from a business perspective, you always hear this idea of like you don't want to be the middleman. Oh, you can always cut out the middleman. And and in this case, the middleman became worth more than everybody else. And actually, if you look at many businesses, you know, there's many businesses where the middleman becomes a quite a valuable business. And so there's an interesting question of why. In in case, it's because the middleman was a physical was physically in the middle. They literally built the grain elevators that would store the right next to the railroad. And so, you needed to transport it. You needed to get to the railroad. Who else had it? Like, nobody else was going to build that. So, anyways, they started doing that. They They then go, you know, further and further and further. So, you know, at one point, they're like, "Hey, these shipping barges are so inefficient where we're shipping the grain when it's not traveling by rail. So, we'll build our own shipyard, our own ships." They end up producing ships for the US Navy. They bought the biggest like meat like poultry company, and now they control like a huge percentage of the meat industry, of the grain industry. And so, they built this like empire, and nobody really knows them. And And they basically it's just a family that's that owns this thing. 88% owned by the family. There's like 20 or something billionaires in the family now. They have this rule called the 80/20 rule. So, 80% of all profits will get reinvested back in the business. 20 goes out as dividends to the family, and they hire And for the last, you know, 20 years or so, they've They've had professional CEOs running the company. It's not like family run anymore. >> And the profit per year, according to Wikipedia, I think it's like five or six billion dollars. >> Yeah, that was like during like the kind of peak COVID stuff when you know, when Ukraine was getting attacked and and, you know, Ukraine produces a lot of grain. And so, their prices spiked. I think it's like three billion in a in a normal year right now. >> Okay. >> So, okay. So, so you're close to a billion dollars a year of profit that goes just straight to the family. And they've been doing that for like, whatever, 50 plus years. And so, I want to I want to tell you a little bit of something interesting. So, first I was like I was like, "What do they actually do?" Cuz you know, when these corporations get so big, so large, they just have their hand in everything. And you would see these comments like, you know, they just everything on your plate. Anything you eat in a in a package, Cargill had a hand in it. They're They're controlling the food supply. The people think of like Monsanto-style like evil companies. Um and so, just I'll read you this paragraph. So, "Imagine you eat a hamburger. Cargill probably sold the farmer the seed and the fertilizer to grow the grain. They bought the grain from the farmer and stored it at their grain elevator. They shipped it on their barge that they built in their ships that they built to a processing plant where it's processed into animal feed. And then they they feed that to cattle who they then slaughter. They they then store the meat at their meat packing plants, sell the beef to the restaurant. By the way, the restaurant has to buy their salt. They sell like all of the salt to all of the fast food chains in the country. And then the corn syrup that they processed out of the corn gets put into the ketchup, the soybean oil that's used for the fries, the starch that's used in the milkshake. That's all Cargill. And isn't it crazy how like one company can have a hand in so much of your day-to-day life? And and when you're when you think you're eating at some farm-to-table restaurant, you you're really not escaping them because they control the underlying ingredients that are used, the fertilizer, the seeds, the grains, like all of it that gets fed to the cows, like it all come it all goes back to the source. And isn't that kind of incredible? >> And the family is so big and so profitable, they also own a thing called Garda Capital Partners, which is a $10 billion plus size hedge fund. Correct? Cuz they have to hedge com- >> commodities, you know, on behalf of the farmers and for themselves as well at this point. >> So they own like a little bit of everything including mines because they need to get their own chemicals and minerals to make all of these things. This is incredible. >> No famous founder. You know, their office was famously this like chateau looking thing on a lake in the middle of nowhere. And like that was their it was called the lake office if you Google it. And it's just quiet. You know, like how they say like money talks but wealth whispers? This is this is wealth whisper You know what I mean? Like who's the founder? What does he look like? Who's the CEO? What do they talk about? How come they're not on CNBC? Do they do podcasts? Oh, they don't do podcasts. >> >> You know what I mean? Like it is it is true like quiet dominance. And actually it was part of their strategy for a long time was to be quiet about it just to not attract competition and to build this monopoly position in the logistics industry. >> is cool. I've known I've seen their logo and whenever I look at like the largest privately owned companies in America, it's always been there. I never understood what entirely did they did because it's one of those things where you say what they do and it sort of makes sense, but it's like a B2B thing. So like you don't entirely understand exactly what it does and they say like they sell chemicals and I'm like, I don't know what that means, you know, that's so that's so vague. But when you look at the numbers, they do a hundred and fifty billion dollars a year in revenue. That's just so massive. And I bet you that they like own so many more things that you wouldn't even realize. Like for example, like the Walmart family owns like Have you heard of Rapha? It's like a cool bike D2C company. >> They own that? >> They own the like they just like they're just rich people. They're just like deal men. They just own >> They just go to the website to buy one and then they just keep pushing plus on quantity until they own all of them. They're like, "We now have the shop." >> That seems like something that this family would do is like you don't realize it and then you if you wanted to get like conspiratorial, which I have not done any research on it. I'm sure that there's like 10 or 20 really interesting conspiracies about how that either they're at this they're pulling the strings behind, you know, it's like the there's something going on with this family, which I'm just making it up. I've no idea. >> A journalist once described the family as secretive, inbred, and suspicious. >> >> I'm in. >> Hey, I want to tell you about something pretty cool. We have a database of all of the business ideas that have been discussed on this podcast. So hundreds of episodes, the team at HubSpot went through, they pulled out all the simple, relatable, interesting, profitable ideas that we have brainstormed, and they're all available for download for free. Just click the link in the description below. Thank you to our friends at HubSpot for sponsoring this podcast and putting together this free resource for you guys. Back to the show. >> In 1980, they did a survey, and by then it was already a dominant company. They did a survey, 94% of farmers had heard of Cargill, but only half of them knew what the company actually did. And then amongst politicians, lawyers, and journalists, what they call opinion leaders, 50% had heard of them, but only 10% understood what the business was. Because they have this sort of sprawling empire like you described, people don't really fully understand what they even do. You just sort of know that they're important. >> Um, I had a friend who, uh, I think it was Cargill that she went and worked at because they obviously make so much profit that they were trying to invest in like new seed-related, agriculture-related, D2C, like I think they invested, like we had talked about that one D2C milk company. Like they would look at things like that. Like anything like interesting. And she said it was awesome working for them. She said it was a it was a great company. >> Well, definitely there's a section called the dark side in my notes here. So, let me just tell you some things from the dark side just to be be fair here. When you have like global crop production, you're going to have this, which is like accusations of child labor like in Brazil or in, you know, Ivory Coast and things like that. They they are said to have better intelligence than the CIA. So, they have basically they have a spy network of around crops. So, like they know more about the state of crops in real time than the US government does around the world because it's like life or death for their business. You know, they've had like different like E. coli break breakouts and stuff like that. Again, if you're touching most of the food supply, then like anything bad that can happen in food is going to happen to you. People just generally feel like they're monopolistic. So, you know, they do they care about worker safety number one? Probably not. Probably not in the top three top three things that they care about. >> But they're Midwesterners. They even they're probably really sweet. >> >> But it's crazy to go from like a single grain shed to now controlling 25% of the entire US export market for grains and meat. It's like pretty crazy. >> So they were they it started 160 years ago. You and I did a talk recently and you were like we were explaining like some of our preferences. You were like I like projects. I like starting something and then potentially selling it but like I love the starting phase. I love handing it off to someone and then I love it potentially ending and starting something new. And I was saying how I love things that could potentially go for 50 to 100 years. Not that I've actually done that. I've actually done the same thing as you. Projects starting and selling. And I'm so fascinated by companies that can last this long and this one in particular is one that seems like they've kept it together pretty amazingly for 160 years. That's crazy. So they started before the Civil War and it's still around. Isn't that incredible? And I just think I I just find that so fascinating. And like part of me is like well when I die, like why do I care about legacy? Like we talk about legacy a lot and I I was reading something the other day and like why do the or someone said to me like why do you care about your legacy? Like who who gives a You're dead. And I was like okay, yeah. I I understand that perspective. Like we can have the dichotomy of caring about that and then also like how cool would it be that the thing that you can create can employ 160,000 people 150 years after you're gone. Like I don't know. I think that's awesome. I think it's kind of romantic and exciting. >> It's kind of like two people can love running and one person's trying to run the 100 meter dash and the other person's running uh you know, one of these like ultra marathon 100 mile races. And they're both like yeah, I love running. >> >> But and and that's what I do and that's kind of like in the business sense, there's there's different ways to approach it. There's the what I call the projects approach which is you kind of go in knowing like hey, I'm going to have like five great at bats in my career. And I I each one is a really fun chapter and I'm going to seek variety in those. >> It's sort of like being an author. You're like, all right, I got 5 years of research and writing, and then a break, and then I do it again. >> Exactly. And then there's other people that are brick by brick laying a foundation for an empire. And you know, I I respect both, but I I know which one I want to do. And I think you know which one you want to do, too. I think you want the You want the like empire. >> Yeah, I don't know if I'm going to have the grit to pull it off, but I for sure love the idea of the result. >> Do you think the people who do this, is it a temperament difference? Like, they're wired differently, therefore, you know, fast fast twitch, slow twitch muscle type where it's more of inherently who you are, or do you feel like you might have the base wiring to do it, but you then need to adopt the systems, right? Like, for example, it's not like one guy ran this for 100 years. No, he passed it to his son. His son kind of screws it up. Then the next son sort of saves it out of out of bankruptcy. And then by by now, professional CEOs run it, but they've instilled values and systems and like ownership controls. But, you know, now the the heirs are marine biologists, and they're doing other things. They're not running this company that that the but the company the entity lasts. So, which one Where do you think you might fail? Is it the wiring or the systems? >> I think the wiring. You start off a certain way, but not always. For example, I think there's a lot of them that would have sold if they could have, but the opportunity just didn't present itself, and they just said, "Screw it, I'll just keep going." And then I think what happens a lot of times is there's a few things. Like, if you had to build a business and you never thought about selling, there's a world where you would do some wacky stuff that would make the business incredibly profitable, but incredibly not sellable. Like, you would acquire assets or businesses that don't entirely make sense to one particular buyer, and then you get big enough to the point where you're like, "Ugh, this is a hodgepodge of stuff, and it works for us, but no one buyer would ever actually take this." So, like, but then I also think that it comes down a lot to the family. And I think that there's something special around family meetings. We've had Rob Dyrdek on here, he talked about that. I actually follow some people on Instagram and they talk about like family meetings. >> Explain what you mean. What is What's a family meeting? >> So, the way that I grew up is probably very similar to the way potentially you grew up, but with the way a lot of Americans grew up, which is your parents never talked to you about money. If you asked them like, "How much do you make?" they would say like, "That's none of your business." Um and there was very little transparency and there's a probably very little culture creation in terms of like, "Here's explicitly my expectations of you. Here's our family's culture. Here's our values." And what I've been learning about and frankly what I like is this idea of a family meeting where you get the children and everyone in the same room monthly, quarterly, annually, something like that. And in the same way you run a board meeting, you run a family meeting where you say like, "Here's the values that we stand for. Here's how we did last quarter, last month according to what we said we wanted to achieve. And what about the future? What would you guys like to do? Let's Let's talk about this. And here's the money that we have to spend on whatever dreams and ideas that you have and let's discuss if it fits within our family credo and mission." And there's actually like a way to do that and I aspire to do that with my family. My >> do you do you do you do you like taking minutes? Taking meeting minutes? A board observer? >> I just think there's something special about being explicit about stuff. I think that a lot of times when you're growing up, there's these things that you say, "Well, we never really talked about blank, but my feeling was this." But what I would like to experience is like saying like, "We are actually going to speak what we intend to do and how we will do it and what resources we have to get it done and we'll have a conversation." And I think there's something very special about the families who pull that off. >> Yeah, I um I totally agree. I I I think it's explicit versus implicit. So, it's not even like, "Don't talk about that." It's more just it didn't get said, right? And it doesn't get said not for malicious or secretive reasons, it's just we were busy. I don't know myself what you know, it's like I'm not sure I really know the answer to all these things and it's easier just not even think about it, right? It's like if you ask somebody, "Well, what do you really want?" Watch people just immediately just start to flounder and it's such a simple question. Don't you think you should know what you really want? >> When I'm meeting new people and I want to make them feel like I care about them, it sounds like I'm being nefarious, but I mean like I'm trying to like get to know someone. I'm like, "Hey, in the next 6 months, anything interesting you want to get done in life or career or family-wise?" And they'll be half the time people are like, "I don't know." And it's like the the conversation is them discovering it and it's kind of exciting. >> Yeah, exactly. So, I think I think being explicit I'm like you. I'm I'm a over-communicator. I'll take the negatives that come with that because I think the positives are so overwhelming. But how do you do it in a family is kind of interesting. I was at a friend's house and he has this like crest on the wall and he's like, "Oh, that's our like family crest." And I was like, "Oh, like my family, we didn't have one. Like I guess one of my ancestors dropped the ball." He's like, "No, like we made this. I painted that like, you know, 5 years ago and we just decided, what are we all about?" There's four quadrants on the crest and we said it's this, this, this, and this and this is our sigil. That's our animal. >> I love that. >> And I was like, "You can just do that? You can just be a university? Like I could be Hogwarts right now? The hell?" Like and I came home and I was like, "Shit, I'm going to start doing stuff like this." So, I actually haven't made the crest, but I have done a a few other things. Like I gave for each of my kids, they have like a way. Like I like it'd be like Sam's way. So, for example, one of my kids, it's like one of them is try try to figure it out. Oh, that's the Sam way. And I'll I'll I've said that so many times that now the great father moment is when he'll just be like, "Well, I just did it. I just did it the Sam way." And he's using it as shorthand for like, "I didn't give up. I tried tried until I figured it out." And my daughter has a different one. >> That's really beautiful. >> And then we have one that's like for like I the idea of gifts. So, I told them I was like I was like, "Yeah, like everybody has like some gifts that you were given." And my son loves like Pokémon and things like that. So, he kind of understands the idea that like super you have a superpower and like every every character he watches in a show has like a special power. I'm like, "Yeah, like well, you have one, too." He's like, "Really? What's mine?" And I'm like, "Well, yours is that you're this." And I just get to declare I give them a reputation to live up to, you know, one that they're today quite inconsistent in, but there's moments and all I did is I just highlight those moments. I pretend the inconsistencies don't exist and I just keep reinforcing that until it's their identity. And I do that for each of them individually. And then one of the downsides is like I make one sound so good. I'm like, "Do I Can I just say that the other one has the same?" Cuz then it's it feels less special. I have to give the other one equally those, but you can also do You know, it's a little tricky. It's not perfect, but man, this works. Um it is really a powerful And so, there's a a version of that that's completely non-business related, but in creating this like family dynasty idea of how do you instill a culture first in the home before you ever try to go do it, you know, in the office. >> And I think the likelihood that anyone's children will ever want to work in their business is very low. And so, like if that even happens, I think and they get along, that's like a miracle. And so, what I've noticed that is important, also um creating long-term trust. So, I talked about this a little bit with the Hearst organization Hearst company, which owns um like GQ is like a famous magazine they own, but they also own like a hundred businesses that you never even heard of and they including like they own half of ESPN or whatever. And one of William Randolph Hearst, one of his great inventions was he created this trust within the family that was pretty ironclad and it was very long-term thinking. >> Trust like a actual legal trust or you mean trust like the feeling? >> Legal trust. So, for example, for him, it was like you cannot dispute this trust and if you do dispute it, you're out of the will. And like the trust basically just says that like Hearst I I don't forget the exact number, but Hearst hypothetically will have eight board seats. Family members are always two. I think it was like you cannot argue with how much money you receive. Money is given out equally. If you want more profits, you cannot argue about it. If you do argue about it, you're out. Like things like that. Like he like he did these things that were quite good in terms of like making it last for a long time. Same with John Rockefeller. He did that He did that the same way. One of the great things about reading about John Rockefeller, he was this madman businessman. Think of Jeff Bezos. A polite guy, but like a ruthless businessman. His son, John also John, he was a great dad. They were both great He was a great dad and a great son. And they loved each other very much. They showed a lot of mutual respect. And so what I'm noticing about a lot of this stuff, it's built on a mutual respect. It's built on about empowering and having these very explicit conversations. And that was a big takeaway from reading about him. >> Yeah, it's interesting. You got to find like these blueprints. It's kind of what I went back to when I was asking you about like the long-term thing. Like you you have to get to know your wiring to know where you're going to you're going to naturally have things come easier to you um that are difficult for others. And other areas that are going to be difficult for you, and you better figure out how you're going to work around it either by patching up those weaknesses or getting people around you who complement those. And then you got to learn the systems, you know, on top of it. Like what are the habits? What are the What are the actual systems on top of that to get the results I want? >> But then there's like a wild card. Like for example, I have a billionaire friend whose son is a homeless drug addict. Like they've tried numerous times to get this kid on the right path to the point where they're like, "We're either We just got to let you figure it out." And unfortunately that that might mean death, but like it it's a very challenging tragic situation. >> A family crest didn't help? >> Yeah. Like it's pretty crazy. You can have I think What's the phrase? You're the happiest of your saddest kid? >> Yeah, yeah. You're only as happy as your saddest child, yeah. >> I went on this rant about um like phrases and why they're really important, the phrases we tell ourselves. So for example, like using the phrase like I might as well. Where it's like, "Well, I've already eaten bad today. I might as well eat." It's like, "No, you That's just a convenient phrase. You should not might as well do that. Or >> It is what it is is my is my my favorite one. It is what it is is the is the the the complete surrender of of of power, of agency, of anything. It is what it is just replace it with just say it is what I make of this. So then you say, all right, well, what am I going to make of this? You know, like it is what it is is crazy. >> Can I tell you about a phrase that you're unfortunately need to know about and you're going to see everywhere online. I also want to rebrand it. So this thing is called the Jevons paradox. Have you heard of the Jevons paradox? It's not even a paradox. A paradox means like An example of paradox is like can God heat a burrito so hot that even he can't eat it? Uh like this is This is more like like uh >> Well, what's that paradox called? The burrito paradox? >> >> That's a paradox. This isn't even a paradox. This is just like like a like an economic like principle. >> Okay, okay, here here let me read it let me read the actual definition. An economic principle stating that as technology makes use of a resource more efficiently, the total consumption of that resource actually increases rather than decreases. Okay, so as something becomes more efficient, you would think you're using less of it cuz you're being more efficient, but in total you use way more of it because the demand explodes. Okay, got it. >> And I'll give you a I'll give you a ton of examples. I want to rebrand it to Jevons paradox because uh >> You put a little flavor. >> Yeah, well, because it was created by this guy named James Jevon who was a British guy and I think that'd be cool to have a wonderful economic principle be created by an American brother. So I want it to be one of ours, not one of theirs. So right around the mid-1800s, James Watt creates this new thing. It's a new variation of the steam engine, which is basically the the steam engine that like everyone came to love and know. James Jevon was basically this guy in the 1800s. He wrote a book in 1865 called The Coal Question. And he basically says, I have a feeling that because of how amazing this new steam engine is that Britain potentially is going to get rid of all of our cheap coal and we're going to have a problem. We're going to have a coal shortage because everyone else was like, "What are you talking about? The steam engine makes things significantly more efficient. Therefore, like there's only a set amount of work needs to get done. Like, we're just going to use less coal." And he goes, "No, brother. That ain't going to happen. We're going to use way more coal because everyone's going to want one of these steam engines." And he was exactly right. And this is where things get really freaky. And this is actually what I want to talk about. It expands in a way that you cannot even com- comprehend. And so, let me give you a really simple example. Eli Whitney, he was this guy from Yale and he was like, "I want to make it rich. I have this idea." So, he goes down to the south of America. At the time, slaves would pick cotton. And they would get cotton and it would take them hours to separate the seed from the cotton to the point where they could only produce about a pound a day of cotton that was usable, one person. And he comes up with this little handheld device where you can kind of like put cotton in there and kind of cranks it and it gets the seeds out to the point where one slave could produce 50 pounds of cotton. They made it 50 times more efficient. And so, some people were kind of happy in a weird way. They thought, "Okay, maybe this might mean slavery won't continue to grow and that like we won't import more slaves. That's kind of That's kind of good." The exact opposite happened. Over the next like 30, 40, 50 years, cotton got so cheap that in the south of America, particularly in Mississippi where a lot of like slavery eventually got really bad, they actually started calling it King Cotton instead of King George. And so, America's best export was cotton and it got so strong that we had to import like eight to 10 times more slaves that we than we currently had at the point at that point pre- Eli Whitney in order to keep up with all this demand for cotton. And one could argue that the reason why slaves slavery in America lasted as long as it did was because of cotton and the demand and that's one of the the why it was like our economic engine. And so, this thing, this idea of this paradox, it's quite strong. And so, the reason why it's relevant right now is because what's one product that AI is making significantly more efficient? Code. Previously, code was very expensive to make. So, you have to raise all this money from venture capital. You have to hire all these engineers. You got to mix stuff. And hopefully, 3, 5, 10 years, that code is actually working and makes a profit. Well, Jevons paradox, it comes into play here because my opinion is this. A lot of people are saying that AI is going to put people out of work. I think it is the exact opposite. I believe that code will get more cheap. Therefore, demand will increase a significant amount. To the point that we can't even understand. For example, Gutenberg invented the printing press. When he invented the printing press, people were thinking, you know, maybe people will read like two times, three times, five times more books than they're reading now. And Gutenberg, this guy creates this printing press, I believe in the 1400s. And the offspring of that, like on the extreme end, is this idea of the Kindle. One could even argue that like reading text on a page like on a computer screen is like a a way further down. But like it didn't make five times more books. It made like it's infinite. Like it doesn't create like 10 times more. It's like it creates a whole new thing. What I have noticed, I've noticed this with the cotton gin, I've noticed this with the creation of the steam engine, which then on went to create the railroads, which created a massive boom in America. When when technology makes a product that already has some demand uh more efficient, there is turmoil amongst those who are directly impacted. For example, have you ever heard of the Luddites? >> Yeah, people who don't adopt technology. >> Yeah, so now it's used as an insult. Back then, it wasn't. So, the history of the Luddites is basically right around when uh in the Industrial Revolution, there was a machine invented that allowed uh people to weave cotton sorry wool into yarn much faster. Previously there was like five or 800,000 people in England who did this by hand and they were considered craftsmen. This new machine comes in they get put out of business to the point they create a fake character called Ned Ludd. And in England this group of people go around smashing these new machines and it starts ruining the process of creating this new like wool to the point where like >> on behalf of Ned Ludd, right? Like this this a person that you couldn't attack cuz he wasn't real. >> It was a fake person and it was so serious that it was a capital punishment in England. So if you got caught breaking one of these machines they would put you to death. And so this idea of like there was like five or 800,000 people who are willing to risk their lives in order to ruin new technology. That's like the history of Luddites. But my point being is when there's a new creation there is a subset of people that are screwed. For example, when switchboards went away in America there was in the 1970s there was like 800,000 telephone operators mostly women that those they they didn't exist those jobs didn't exist. But in general um more technology that creates a more efficient process creates new jobs sometimes because of increased demand. Sometimes the other thing is that because there's new industries created that we can't even comprehend. And so my opinion AI is actually going to create a net positive not a net negative which I previously thought. >> Mhm. I first of all excellent monologue. Highly informed highly entertained. I I enjoyed that. This you told me you were reading about the industrial revolution cuz you were trying to figure out like history doesn't repeat but it rhymes. What happened in the past? What did we say? What did we think then? Does that sound like what we say and think now and what actually happened? >> Yeah like one that came out like 10 or 15 years ago that's now popular again that I read a while ago is called Americana. Um and it goes through breakthroughs in American capitalism. So like different inventions. And you'll notice that people are have the same fears consistently. So, let me ask you a different question. >> One of the most dangerous things in business is to think, "Well, this time it's different." Those are very dangerous words. This time it's different. However, it's also dangerous to say, "It'll be just like last time." You have to almost consider both possibilities. >> I'm not saying that, by the way. What I'm saying is that human nature is human nature, and there's something special about the 30- to 60-hour a week workweek that has happened for centuries. And also, time and time again, there's this idea that I always come back to. I used to be a beekeeper, and bees are really interesting. With bees, if you get one hive with one set of bees, you just stack that over and over and over again. Bees fill up space. They just fill up space. In the same way, whenever you've gotten a new home, anyone has experienced this. They get to this new home, they previously only had a thousand square feet. They get to a two-thousand square feet, they say to themselves, "I'm never going to fill this place." >> Yeah. >> And then, magically, over the next three years, they go, "How do I have so much junk?" That is a like, the human need to expand, to grow, to fill space is innate. It does not go away. And so, that is what I'm saying is the same every single time, not the how. I don't know how this is going to happen. That's sort of the point of my monologue is that I don't know. But I know it will happen. >> Yeah, and not to be too abstract here, but the one thing I don't get, or the one thing I haven't figured out with with that. I I buy everything you said. All this new man will get created. We'll want We'll want code in places we didn't have code. So, yeah, it'll be more efficient to get code, but net-net, you're going to have way more code, way more people creating code. In this case, if AI is so good at doing the like, AI is a technology that basically is the technology of doing work. Like, gen- generic work, human work. It's like, basically a model of the brain. Like, who's to say that AI won't also fill those jobs? May- meaning like, yes, it creates all this demand, which creates new job opportunities, new industries. But who's to say that AI also isn't the one who supplies that demand also? Because, you know, the printing press, these were more rigid technologies that could do one thing. AI's weird in that it's this like flexible general thing that can do so many things. So, who's to say it doesn't also become the supply? >> There's a few ways to look at this. The first is like you could say, well, is this going to be like hot water? So, for example, when hot water was invented, this idea that you could like take showers every day like a king, like that was incredible. And so hot water surged. And water heaters were put in every home in America. But you know what happened? We sort of figured out how much hot water we need. Like we don't actually need that much hot water today than we did like 50 years ago. So, it took off and then it kind of got flat, right? But another example is electricity. When electricity was invented, it basically became like a base unit of measurement for life. Where if physics dictate if physics if it can exist in physics, there's a way that you can uniquely use electricity to make it happen. I think potentially code is going to be like that. Where it's going to be a unit of measurement where you can find infinite ways to get done what you would need to get done. And I do not think that it's going to be like water where it's going to be like, all right, we figured out. We don't really need that much more hot water. >> Well, why are you saying code instead of like intelligence? >> I'm just kind of working through this to be honest. Like I'm I'm still like but I was trying to think of like that's like a unit. Intelligence is I don't understand how to like quantify it. But now this is actually interesting to you potentially. There is always a point of turmoil with these new technologies. And I've been trying to actually break down, is there like a formula that you can figure out will the economy boom? Well, I I think it will. I think that's inevitable. But like how long will it take? So, for example, the railroads came about. And that's And like it there's like this weird chart that if you look at like how many railroad tracks were laid and how the average person's protein consumption went up because like what the railroads did was they made America smaller and it created like towns that didn't exactly have to be where they were anymore. And it created this massive like booming economy. However, it took 50 years because we had to create railroads, which is a very labor intensive thing. We had to create steel, which was like entirely new invented. And so there's this equation where it's like the breadth of the technology, meaning how many people does it impact, multiplied by this like the intensity of how it impacts you, multiplied by like the time of co-invention and that equals like the length of turmoil that someone will go through. With chat GPT growing as fast as it has, there is a world where the tumultuous period is relatively short compared to past breakthrough technologies. >> And if you knew the turmoil, either when, how, or how long, what would you do with it? Cuz you said there's like an opportunity. What's the opportunity? >> Uh like if you knew that like the the like it's only going to take us three to five years to like figure this thing out to where we're humming again, that you can make bets on that. >> Yeah. Actually, you know, one of the kind of Jevons paradox plays over the last few years has been Nvidia because what a lot of people thought is, hey, people are buying these GPUs, but each training run, each algorithmic improvement that the labs are making is going to make you need less and less of these GPUs in order to train these models. And Jensen went on um on TV saying was he was like, you're right, the training is going to become more efficient, but the inference is going to go up by 1 million percent whatever 1 1 million X. And people are like, 1 million X? And he's like, 1 million X. And it's kind of what you were saying at the beginning, which is that when these things do diffuse, the demand goes up not by like some kind of easy to understand percentage or multiple, but like in a mind-boggling way. Where you know, when from the time of the printing press to now, like if you were trying to market size how many people will create text and how many people will read text, you couldn't have thought of Twitter. Like Twitter would have broken your brain. It didn't make any sense. But that's kind of what happens. And so he's been saying that about inference, which is like when you when you query AI, when you use AI to do something, you use inference. And he's like inference is is going People don't understand like how how much there how big the inference need is going to be for the world. It's like, you know, mind-boggling. >> I think what's going to happen over the next 6 months is and this is partially for listener because I think you potentially might know this is I think the popular smart people, which I think we're relatively popular. I don't think I'm that smart. But I think the popular smart people, the narrative is going to change. It's not And this is in itself serving to have this narrative particularly if you're a president or whatever. But the narrative is going to change that this is going to be a massive net positive and they're going to cite Jevons paradox and they're going to excite everything that I've just said, which isn't particularly unique and nothing I'm saying is unique. >> Dude, I see this all the time. It's like, yeah, this is going to be great for you if you make it great for you. I mean people are just sitting back as like the recipient of this and it's like, is this hand going to slap me or is it going to put, you know, grapes in my mouth? And it's like, well, it depends. Like it depends what you do. Are you learning how to use this Are you paying attention to what's going on? Are you thinking about how you can use this in your field? Are you talking to smart people? Are you moving where the puck is going or not? Like I feel like people are so passive about like what's going to happen as if everything is happening to you and that none of this is happening potentially for you and that you have no agency to be generative and democratize this technology for yourself. >> The reason I was studying the Luddites is I think that same movement is already happening right now and it's going to continue to happen. You know, you saw like at this recent college graduation speeches like Steve's or Solomon, I forget his first name, Solomon the CEO of Goldman was like talking about AI and everyone was booing. >> Yeah, people walked out, right? >> >> The reason I'm bringing this up is if you go back and study the Gilded Age, which I that's a one of my favorite eras as well as the Industrial Revolution, it's all just repeat itself. Everything's repeating itself. It's It's like the It's very very very similar over and over and over and over again. This is all quite predictable. Now, the time and the how is who knows, but like the general trend, it's all been there, done that. >> Yeah. Yeah. It's crazy to me that it's become like a high-status thing to do to be anti-data centers and AI and things like that. It's like really really bizarre. >> not fair. I don't think that's fair. I I I don't think we should dismiss it. I think they're stupid. I understand their sentiment. Can you imagine being 80 or 21 years old First of all, if you're 21 years old, you graduated high school during COVID. That sucks. Okay? The world changed dramatically over the last 4 years to the point where you uh you were expecting to get a job at Deloitte and or as a law clerk or whatever like, you know, and they're like, "Nah, we don't need you, dog." Like there is anger, which I understand. But I think that the way that they act >> You need me to put my my mind in the mind of a loser and I just can't do it. It's just not possible to do this. The loser think is just not acceptable in my mind and I uh I'm sorry. I just I just don't have the ability. Maybe you can. Maybe you can have go in the mind of a loser, but I just I simply can't. >> they're wrong, but I have empathy for it. I I understand that feeling and I think they're stupid. >> >> Dude, there was one point um where like ATMs had just gotten invented and these people who were like the bank tellers was like a huge there it was like a big deal. That was like a big job and they they revolted. They were like, "F this. You're going to put us out of business, this or that." And do you know what happened? Way more banks went up. May way more banks were created or branches, like physical locations, way more. And so, I just think if I'm telling these young people, I would say, "It might suck for a minute." >> Dude, if if you're young, you have no excuse. Okay, I can get it if you're like 65 and you're 75 years old or whatever and you're like, "Oh my god, there's a lot of change. It's going to be really hard. I've been running my business. It's it's pretty difficult for me to reinvent right now." Like, I have a lot more understanding for that. If you're 18, 19, you didn't know anything anyways. Uh, you know, hop on this train. This train is exciting. This train has like so much room to run. You know, you you sort of have to look at the counterfactuals, right? So, you might say, "Well, it's going to be harder than ever to get a job or this or that." It's also true that more people than ever are going to create new things. More people than ever are going to become successful. More people than ever are going to become millionaires out of this. And so, it's entirely possible to to have that result if you if you choose, if you do the actions that will that will get you to that result. So, I guess I just have a very little empathy for like the younger folks. This should be easier, come more naturally for them. They have less invested and less sunk costs and less rigidity of the past to even like be tied down to. So, I don't I don't really understand that. And the other side is like, "Is this serving you? Like, is that attitude serving you in any way?" Uh, is that like forget arguing who's right and who's wrong. Like, at some point you just have to ask, "Does this belief serve me or not?" And I don't believe that that belief serves you. I also don't believe that you can control it. Just like Ned Ludd and the Luddites found out, it didn't matter how many windows you smashed. This shit's happening. It's like getting mad at the weather. It's like it's going to rain whether you shake your fist at the sky or not. Like, you have zero chance of slowing down AI. The AI freight train has left the station. It is happening. And so, all you should really worry about is what you can control, which is your reaction and response to the new playing field. Trying to argue that the new playing field is bad is sort of stupid to me. Um it's like again, like yelling at the weather. You don't get to You don't get to have a say in in that side of things. The New York Who is it? The governor, the mayor, who whoever was that was like proudly like, "We have banned data centers in New York state." Um they were like so happy about it. You know, politics is already very performative, but like man, taking so much smug pride in like banishing the technology that's going to create >> >> all the where all the growth is coming from in the economy is sort of a you know, silly. >> And one that's being popularized now is data centers use electricity and use water. And I actually have no idea if that's true or not true, but whenever I see these things, I'm like, we should actually learn if that's the reality because I have a feeling that like the Super Bowl is significantly more inefficient than a data center, and yet we celebrate that. Like >> Anybody who's has this feeling and you're like, "Man, Sean's really not empathizing with my This guy's being a jerk about this. He doesn't understand how hard it is right now and for for me." Just watch this clip. Just needed to watch this clip of this guy with no legs completing the last man standing race, which is like this insane 26-hour fitness event, and he's crawling he's using his pulling his wheelchair through the mud using his arms finishing this race. And anybody who's got an it is what it is attitude, um go watch this on loop. This should be your commencement speech instead of you know, just sitting there smug and walking out of it because some guy said two letters you didn't like. >> I usually think of Sacagawea and Lewis and Clark. That's mine. >> In moments like this. >> I think Look, they walked across an unknown territory for 2 years with a 3-month-old baby. They could do that and that baby still lived. I can do this. >> That's what I need. Actually, that should be a service when you're in Disneyland as a dad and it's like hour seven and it's it's so hot. The kids are crying, cranky after you spent a thousand dollars taking them to the happiest place on earth and you're pushing the stroller and you've got the turkey leg dripping down your your your your arm the juice of that thing and you just hate your life. You need you need the Sacagawea example. >> Yeah. >> You need you need that's what you need. >> look kids, the story of Moby Dick is real. These guys floated across America on a raft for 90 days before they were discovered. Okay? If they could do that, we can get to McDonald's without crying. >> >> Can I tell you a very inspiring entrepreneurial story just to leave on a high note? Have you ever heard about the ice king, Frederick Tudor? Do you know this guy? >> Not personally. >> >> All right, so Frederick Tudor. So this guy is known as the ice king. This guy basically he lives in the nor- north northeast of of the US. So he lives near like Boston or something where it gets cold. And you know, Boston gets cold in the winter. There's tons of ice and he realizes he learns that in South America, they never have snow and they never had ice. And so he has this brilliant entrepreneurial idea. He's like I'm going to sell ice to the South Americans. And this is pre-refrigeration, pre-the freezer being invented, right? Because so he's basically goes out wherever there's like a frozen lake and he would get blocks of ice and he would figure out how to transport it on boats to South America and go try to sell this stuff. And he was like, I will sell I'm not selling ice, I'm selling winter. And people are like, how are you going to even trans- melting? He's like so he starts getting in the lab and he he uses wool to wrap that he realizes like, oh, I can cover it with sawdust and sawdust will preserve this ice for like a little longer. And he would start the thing with like 200 lb of ice and by the end he would have like, you know, 70 lb left, but he would still sell that 70 lb. And then when he got there, people didn't understand what to do with the ice. He would sell the ice and then people would come back complaining being like, it melted, dude. He's like, what are you talking about? That's what it does. It's it's ice. It's hot outside. Like they didn't get it and he's like, okay, I just got on this boat for like a month and brought them ice and they didn't want it. I have to get them to want it. I have to build the desire in their mind. And so he goes and he figures out what's the key product. What's my hero hero product here? He's like, I need to sell cold drinks on a hot day. So he goes to the bartenders and he says, look, I'm going to chip you off a little ice here. This is free for you, but you need to start serving rum cold in a chilled chilled drink. And so they he gets the bartenders free ice. They start giving people ice out of the you know, cold drinks and guess what? Once you've had cold cold rum, you never want to go back to that warm piss again. And so the demand starts to get built. People start to want ice and this guy builds this amazing trade. He um pioneers new methods of refrigeration and freezing in order to transport the ice and ultimately puts himself out of business because people realized, oh wait, we can just freeze water and make ice ourselves and then the ice trade kind of collapsed. But Frederick Tudor for a day was the man. >> I'm always I'm also always interested how you got interested in this cuz sometimes those stories are equally as good. >> Uh so me and Diego, who's right over here 5 ft away from me, one of the things we do is we we try to read as many books as we can. So he's been reading this book called the Medici Effect. So this was one of his stories and I was like, wow, that's an incredible story. >> I'm happy you're reading books now. >> That's condescending, but I like it. I I appreciate it. >> I did not say that. I mean, I said what I just said, but you previously said that you normally don't make it past the table of contents. >> >> I don't know. I even open the book. I buy the book with great enthusiasm and I really don't even open them. They I've I've actually you'll appreciate this. I'm creating a bookshelf, so you'll see my office is going to change soon. So, I'm creating a bookshelf that is like a trello board. So, it's basically a progress bar bookshelf. So, I have all the books I bought, that's my ice box, my pipeline, and then a book moves into like the reading phase and then it moves physically into the completed phase and then there's the hall of fame of like great books, which will be like the few, the rare, the ones I would actually recommend anybody else. >> It's sort of like one time Steph Smith told me she invented a water bottle that reminds her to drink more water and I was like just chug the water. Just sit down and read the book. >> >> Are you sure my bookshelf not being a progress bar has not been the thing holding me back? >> >> That's what I've been telling myself. >> So, my old boss Emmett from from Twitch, he would tell me this cuz I have a tendency to do this where I will over architect a solution to something and I will convince myself that like this elaborate way will be the solution instead of the obvious. And so, he would just listen to me talk and I would tell him for 15 minutes what I'm this great idea I have and then I'd be like, "It's great, right?" And then he would say simply he'd go, "Have you tried solving the problem?" >> >> He's like and then he Have you tried actually just solving the problem? And then he would say things like, "The only way out is through, Shawn." And I was like, "Oh, wow." I was like, "Yeah, I'm kind of an idiot." He goes, "No, actually." He goes, "I'm a partner at YC and this is the most common advice I give to YC startups. They'll say exactly what they're planning to do and then I'll ask them, have you tried solving the problem?" >> >> Then they'll be like, "What?" And it's his like shock value way of reminding you that like in many situations the only way out is through and you're trying to find a way around. There is no around, there's only through. >> I waste so much time like charging my AirPods, looking for the holster to hold my iPhone, making sure that like this and I'm like dude, just you're just going for like a 30-minute run. >> I will buy I will door I door I did this the other day. I was going for a run, I DoorDashed, you know the little arm plastic like blood pressure monitor where you put your phone? >> Yeah. >> And I was like, well, I started I couldn't run without my phone. So, I guess I'll just wait 45 minutes for this thing to arrive. >> Dude. >> I go for my run. >> Four-hour four-minute run. I was going to run half a mile. >> >> I do the same all the time. >> song. I could have just hummed it. >> >> Uh what was it like Come My Lady, Come Come My Lady, You're My Butterfly? >> >> Shots so good. Running like Is this guy singing Hoobastank to himself? >> >> Why do people listen to us? Why do they listen to us? >> Who listens to that? That's the pod. >>