All right, welcome back. I'm Jeremy Saffron. Wall Street is celebrating a Thanksgiving boom. The S&P 500 is sitting close to record highs once again. In fact, almost all major indices are. And according to AAA, nearly 82 million Americans are on the move for the holiday this weekend. But the picture underneath that optimism is starting to look really different. HP is cutting nearly 6,000 workers as it pivots to AI. And we just got consumer confidence. It's dropped into recession territory. And the latest data shows residential electricity bills are up 7.4%. A direct tax on households to power the data centers driving Silicon Valley's trillion dollar valuations. And just breaking this morning, a sitting Federal Reserve governor just posted a statement that could rewrite the rules of the banking system. We'll show you that tweet in just a moment. Now, my next guest calls this the freak show economy, and he says that time is running out. Gerald Cente joins me now, publisher of the Trends Journal. Great to have you back on Kicko, Gerald. Nice to see you. >> Oh, great having me on. Thank you so much. I appreciate it. >> Let's uh let's jump right into that that contradiction in in corporate America. I mean, HP announced 6,000 layoffs and the stock price jumps. And I mean, you called that a freak show, right? But this this morning's labor department data showed 216,000 jobless claims, the lowest since April. Help us square this up. I mean, is the government data masking a white collar recession, or is the labor market stronger than than what we've been saying here? >> It's getting worse. You're looking at, you know, in tracking trends, you make connections between different fields. >> And we're political atheists. We don't take sides. It's not what you like, what you want, what you wish for. There was an election in New York City, mayoral election, the biggest biggest city in America. A little boy, 34 years old, nobody ever heard of the cat a year ago. Mandani >> wins the election in New York City. How come? Because the people are busted. They're broke. A democratic socialist. This is New York City. >> Yeah. >> You look at the people that went out to vote, Generation Z, and the millennials, the biggest turnouts. Over a million people voted for this guy. Hey, I'm gonna give you free bus rides. Hey, you got free child care. You can't raise the rent. The people are suffering. And again, you got to look global. Hey, there's a place called Tanzania. Another one uh Nigeria. Oh, how about uh Morocco, Madagascar? How about Nepal? >> Gen Z revolutions going on around the world. They can't find work. Now, let's look at the facts. Um, according to the data, nearly 50% of the retail spending in America comes from the top 10%. The rest of the people are going broke here. Look at the facts. Look at the housing market. Not too long ago, the average age of firsttime home buyers, 28 years old. What's it today? 40 years old. >> Yeah. Hey, and I'm gonna give you a 50-year mortgage. Oh, you mean so I'm 90 years old. I'll pay the thing off. Oh, what's the death rate in America about 78 years old? I'm just putting this together. When you look at the data, the young people can't find jobs. You look at the unemployment rate for young people. Look at the young people getting out of college, they can't find jobs. The numbers are all there and AI is wiping out more of them. And it's the future. So it's very serious what's going on. There is absolutely no connection between Wall Street and Main Street. >> When Wall Street goes down, then the real pain of Main Street becomes a reality. Look at all the news that you're hearing. You know, will Black Friday sales go up. You know, the consu they don't have any money. They're broke. >> Yeah. We've been hearing this disconnect between Main Street and Wall Street narrative. It seems to be getting a little bit more wider and and wider as you kind of call it. You know, you described the middle class as also quote plantation workers. Well, I mean the you know the the board reported this morning the consumer confidence index just fell 88.7. That's the recession level reading. I mean if the wealth effect is supposed to lift sentiment, why do Americans feel poorer today than they did a year ago? >> Because they prices have gone up on so many different items. And again, they again, you go back to the elections, what did Trump promise the people that they'd get better wages and and the economy would boom and they'd feel better? It didn't happen. And and so when you're looking at the data and the facts, again, we call them plantation workers of slave land. And that's what the middle class has gone. Once upon a time, there were it used to be the land of opportunity. When I was a young guy, I'm I'm the same age as Trump. There were things called grocery stores, hardware stores, stationery stores, drug stores, shoe stores, on and on. Fish stores, butcher shops. Now everything's a chain. >> Everything's a chain. And so the young people have no future. And again, the numbers are all there. People can't af it's it's a whole different trip and and it's only going to get worse. And then you got to look globally. Oh, what's the fourth largest economy in the world? Oh, place called Japan. Oh, what did their latest GDP numbers came out? Oh, negative. Like it was what what 1 8% negative growth for the for the last quarter. Oh, how about a place called Germany? Yeah. Yeah. >> Oh, the largest economy in Europe and depending on whose numbers you look at, the third largest economy in the world. They've only been in a recession for 2 years. Oh, yeah. But this year, our economy is going to grow 0.2%. What are you What are you talking about? >> Yeah. >> Again, there's a global look at oil. Look at Brent crude prices. They're hanging around $62 a barrel. >> Yeah. >> There's way more supply than demand. There's a global slowdown. the equity markets. Why are the equity markets going up? Go back a go back 10 days ago. Oh, the word was uh that only a 40% guess that the Fed would lower interest rates in December. Now it's up to 85%. >> Yeah. Yeah. >> Oh, the lower interest rates, the more cheap money you get, the more merger and acquisition activity, the more stock buybacks and artificially propping up the equity markets. >> Yeah. Yeah, well said. >> Again, you look at again the facts. They say Vanguard, State Street, and um Black Rockck. What percentage of the S&P do they own? >> Three companies. And again, when I was a young guy, there were no such thing as venture capitalist, no hedge funds, no private equity groups, the big zone, everything. And again, you got to look at these elections and the why and the what's happening. The New York City election is historic. Yeah. >> Again, it's not what you want, what you like. I hate the guy, love the guy. It's none of that. It's the why. And again, I'm a New York. I'm a Bronx guy and I know New York. It's a whole different trip. And this is very important to watch what's going on. >> Yeah. Let me follow up with you on that. I mean, I wanted to get to some of those new economic numbers and get your opinion on it. Before we do that, because you I think you were speaking to something there, Gerald. You were talking to that, you know, that those people that are voting and and saying we're kind of left behind. I mean, you're saying that the economy has become a chainstorm monopoly, right? Small businesses are gone. Young people look out at the future where everything is corporate controlled, and that loss of independence is why you feel that they're kind of hopeless. Here's the question. I mean, if everything is now a chain and local ownership is kind of dead, what does that mean for economic mobility? I mean, are Gen Z and millennials stuck in an economy where they can only ever be employees and never owners? >> You got it. That's what I'm telling you. Look at what's going on around the world. That's what we do as trend forecasters. We look at if again Tanzania, Nick, Nigeria, Kenya, Nepal, Madagascar, Morocco, one country after another, Gen Z's taken to the streets. >> They have no future. And when you're young, you know, you don't care. You'll do anything. You're wild. And that's what's going on. Look at the data of graduating uh college students. They can't find jobs. The facts are all there. They can't find them. And AI is taking more of them and they're just going to keep taking more of them. And by the way, we're for the the markets are artificially propped up. Artificially propped up by the facts. And again, this whole AI boom, you go back to your our trends journal is back in uh where is it over here? Yeah, this is when it was a quarterly back in 2000, excuse me, 1999. The autumn edition.com this. We forecast the.com bust would happen by the second quarter of 2000, which it did in March. The NASDAQ was down 80%. You're going to see the same thing happening now. Trends are born, they grow, they mature, reach old age and die. You don't invest all your money in the infant that became public three years ago. >> Yeah. Again, you make connections between different fields. Let's go back to the year 2000. This is a t-shirt, by the way, that I did back when Bill Clinton ran for office back in 20 1992. Beware of Slick Willie. This is the guy that brought China into the World Trade Organization. Go back to 2000, 25 years ago, and this has to do with AI. 10% of Chinese 18 year olds went to college back in 1980, excuse me, 2000. Now nearly 70%. What does that mean? They're going to lead the world in AI. Young people are high techch AI addicted. This is a country of 1.4 billion people, very educated people, and they're going to lead the world in AI. You're going to see the AI bust hit these c companies in the United States. Let's go back. Oh, last week, Nvidia, right? Oh, they came out. Everybody was waiting Wednesday, Wednesday, the numbers will come out. Oh, and their profits went way up. Oh, the and and the the uh Dow went up 700 points. The Nasdaq went up, the S&P went up, and then they all went down. >> Yeah. Uh >> they're way overvalued. China is going to lead the world in AI. India number two, look what Trump wants to do with the H-1B visas to bring more Asians into America because he wants to make this the, you know, the AI capital of the world. >> So they again, we only go by the facts, not what you like, what you want, what you wish for, what is. There's going to be a.com bust. When the.com bust happens, gold prices are going to spike, the economy is going to go down, and the reality is finally hits the street when Wall Street goes down. >> Okay. Well, that's when I'm going to get to your gold uh forecast cuz I know you've been watching it carefully. There's a few things to unpack here. First, let's go back to what we were talking about about that that consumer there because we see this counter example. I'm I'm looking at this AAA report that says 81.8 8 million Americans are traveling for Thanksgiving, the highest ever recorded. Airlines are packed. Hotels are are full. Is Is this real consumer strength or is this households leaning on credit to maintain normal life? Is this just the upper 5%? What what is this? >> It it's it's means very little. It it doesn't mean a lot. >> And yeah, they're going so what you they're going away for the holidays to be with families and stuff. It it doesn't it doesn't mean anything. It means next to nothing. It's it's a quick hit and then it's gone. And again, that's why when we say here, this is what we wrote back to make the point about the holiday season. This is again 1999.com. This.com overload will shortcircuit many high expectations for huge profits, internet commerce, entertainment, and a wide array of dot services. Following the holiday season, many of today's high-flying internet stocks, the hottest IPOs, and newly emerging IPO wannabes will have begun their deep descent from their overvalued heights. It's the holiday season. People are in a holiday state of mind. Yes, they're going deeper in debt. You're seeing the delinquencies go up. You're looking at the car delinquencies going up. And again, look at the how the prices have gone up. M >> where the home prices in 5 years have gone up what 50%. Automobile prices what up 30%. And you're starting to see the failures starting to build up. So the holiday season travel it's a little thing. It's a little blip that doesn't take in the big picture. >> All right. All right. I I hear you on that one. Uh let's pivot to the plumbing of this financial system because the signals are kind of getting weird. I mean, we're seeing reports this morning that the Fed standing repo facility, basically the emergency cash window for banks, is being tested. Uh, but here's the catch. Banks are terrified to use it. Executives are telling the Fed privately that there's a stigma that they're afraid that if they borrow from the Fed, the market will sniff it out and that they're weak and crusher stock price. I mean, here's the question. If the banks are too scared to use the lifeboats because they don't want to admit that the ship is taking on water, I mean, how fragile is the system right now? You know, I mean, Gerald, are we one liquidity event away from a freeze up like we saw in 2019 or as you're talking about 1999? >> Yeah. Again, let's go back. No one's talking about this. No one. Let's look at the office occupancy rate in the United States. Go to Castle Systems, KLA. The last time I looked, it was like 54.5%. Again, tracking trends is an understanding of where we are, how we got here, and where we're going. When the COVID war was launched in 2020 on Chinese Luna New Year, the year of the rat, they you can't go to work, go home. You got to work from home. Your office vacancy rate in 2019 was around 11%. Now it's nearly 20%. I'm going back to the banks. >> No one is talking about the amount of failures that pe that building owners cannot pay off their loans. They're hiding it. Let's go back to 2023. Three banks, Signature, First Republic, and Silicon Con. Silicon Valley Bank. Silicon Valley. Yeah. >> Yeah. Three banks went bust. What happened? Three banks. Down went the equity markets. Poof. Up went gold. That's three banks. You're going to see banks unable to pay these mortgage loans that they owners of the buildings can't pay. They're going to say, "Keep the building. Don't I don't want it. I don't. It's empty." They don't have the money, the banks, to pay this off. So, what's going to happen here? Again, sometimes people call me a futurist. Now, I'm not a futurist. You can't predict the future. There are too many wild cards, whether they're made by humans or nature. Let's go back to the panic of08. >> As I said, the.com bust happens in in uh in the in March of 2000. The NASDAQ is down 80%. 911 happens. Everybody forgot about it. And they created this fake thing. You don't have a job. You're out of work. You're deep in debt. Don't worry about it. Sign over here. You get a subprime mortgage. Remember that one? >> Oh, and how about the derivative scams? Okay. So, now the banks are going bust. I thought there would be another crash in 2012. I was 100% wrong. They didn't teach me about zero interest rate policy and a thing called quantitative easing in economics 101 or graduate school. >> Go back to Bard College, Levy Institute. The Federal Reserve bailed out the banking system to the extent of $29 trillion. They'll do everything they can to keep the system going and how fraudulent it really is. And you mentioned before about 2019, the repo crisis. What happened in 2018? Oh, December 2018. The worst Dow since the Great Depression. >> Yeah. >> And what happened? Trump called in Jerome Powell. You got to lower interest rates. drone power load interest rates in January of 2019. Equity markets went up what some 22% and the repo crisis happened and everybody forgot that when the co began in 2020 and again you can't make this stuff up. I thought everything would collapse when they locked down everything. I didn't know they would pump in trillions and trillions of dollars of fake money backed by nothing and print it on nothing, >> right? or bring interest rates down to zero again. That artificially propped up everything. So, it's an artificial boom that's now busting, right? And the only thing that's keeping it going is AI. >> Interesting. Okay. So, I mean, you're saying that the Fed already bailed out the banking system and they'll keep doing it no matter what the cost is. We're in this permanent rescue cycle where markets never clear and and you know, losses never get recognized. Let me ask you directly. I mean, if the Fed is committed to backstopping every failure, what's the endgame? I mean, is this support or is it the slow motion nationalization of the entire financial system? >> It's to keep the markets going up. It's it's been going on forever. >> Yeah. Yeah. >> And and they're just going to keep doing it. It's, you know, there's a George Carlin, he said it's one big club and you ain't in it. And again, you look at the you look at what's going on again. The one big club, right? Who was the former Fed head? Oh, Janet Yellen. Oh, what happened to Janet Yellen? know she became the Treasury Secretary under Biden. I mean, what more proof does anybody need? They'll do anything they can. They It's They're right here. Once upon a time, it was one of the covers of the magazine a while ago back in 2000. Let me wish I could find it here. There was a a guy uh um huh Jesus Christ drives the money changers out of the temple. Here it is over here. Yeah. This was the magazine cover back in 2000. What year is this here? I need to get my glasses here, too. >> Yeah. 2012. All right. >> Nothing's changed. >> Yeah, it's true. >> They're running a show. >> Let me ask you this then. >> Let me ask you this, Gerald. I mean, speaking of this one big club, the counterpoint, right? Banks are talking behind closed doors. Regulators have already flagged hundreds of billions in in, you know, criticized CRA loans. Some lenders are extending terms, restructuring debt. They're trying to keep the building afloat. So, if the banks are already stretching the rules to avoid marking this stuff down, I mean, do we do we really get a full-blown collapse or do we get a long Japan style grind where nobody admits the losses, but the system just limps along anyway? >> No. This time when the markets crash, it's going to be real and they're not going to be able to turn it around. >> Mhm. >> Uh, and it's just going to keep getting worse. Way overvalued, the quote magnificent seven. and uh it they're not going to be able to change it. It's going to be a this is going to be the greatest depression. This is going to be the worst we've ever seen. It's been artificially propped up for a decade. And they only could do so much for so long. And again, they're going to lower interest rates. That's the guess on the street. The lower interest rates go, the deeper the dollar falls. >> Mhm. >> And and and the deeper the dollar falls, of course, the higher gold prices go up. Gold's dollar base. Although currencies go up, it's cheaper for other countries to buy gold. >> And again, look at what's gold is going on. I mean, this is you look at our Trends Journal cover of top trends for 2024. We said it would be a golden year for gold. And it was. Gold went up. Last year was almost 30%. And this year it's up was over 50%. And again, go back to October 16th of this year, we said there's going to be a correction in gold by about 500 bucks. an ounce and it did. >> Mhm. >> Nothing goes straight up and it's going to be be a correction. And now we're saying gold has to solidify over $4,200 an ounce. Solidify and then it goes up and hits another new high. >> Okay, >> that's the way we see it. >> I want to bring it back to the Fed and then we got to move on to AI and we got to move on to gold. Just quickly because there was this new tweet this morning. Uh I don't know if you saw but the Fed sees fragility and they're already moving to rewrite the rule box uh the rule book to kind of fix it here. Um, I'm looking at this statement from Fed Governor Steven uh Mirren here and we'll put up a tweet. He's explicitly calling to remove US treasuries from the supplementary leverage ratio, the SL SLR. But here is the counterargument. I mean, the Fed isn't going to let the system freeze. I mean, they they are just going to change the path. If they exempt treasuries from the leverage calculation, banks can constantly and instantly buy trillions in government debt without needing extra capital. So, doesn't that solve the liquidity crisis overnight? Sure, it's rigged, but if it keeps the cash flowing in the bond market stable, why now would it crash? >> Well, again, that's one sector, but that will has nothing to do with what's going to happen on the in the equity markets. >> Yeah. Yeah. >> And it is it's two separate fields. And again, look at the government debt. When you're looking at the real numbers, it's over hundred trillion dollars. is when you put in social security and other government debt, not 38 trillion. And again, the other thing to watch out for too is u central bank digital currency, CBDC's. That's going to be the future. >> Yeah, >> there's no question about it. They're going to make up a new coin. Stable coins, right? Orwell couldn't come up with a better name than that. >> Break into this one for us. I mean, our audience is always curious about CBDC's. Of course, we saw a little bit of uh you know, a little bit of wording in and around those executive orders that were supposed to prevent at least a US CBDC, but Europe's going ahead, the EU. Uh what are your thoughts on this? I mean, is this just going to happen? >> It's a digitized world. >> Yeah. >> They want to know every penny you spent, where you spent it, what you spent it on, and most importantly, so we could get our tax dollars. All right. >> No cash. No cash anymore. You go to China. It's all digitized. Put out your hand. Boop. That's it. It's as CBDC is one of the covers of our Trends Journal magazine. From dirty cash to digital trash. It's the world. The world is digitized. And CBDC's, they're going to make up something. We got a new coin. It's worth way more than what the dollar is worth. And we just got rid of our debt level. They'll make up any kind of baloney that they want. And it's going to happen with with digital currencies. He says, "No, it it's the future." >> Yeah. Gerald, I mean, you you've warned for years about this, right? And and and now we're seeing trial programs, wholesale settlement tests, and this clear signal that it's, you know, it's obviously being built behind the scenes. So, let me ask you directly. I mean, is the CBDC the final step in this so-called freak show economy, a move that strips financial freedom from the public under the guise of of modernization? >> Yeah, it's part of it. Absolutely. And again, they know everything about you. >> Yeah. you know, and and that's what it's become. It's it's the government's in total control. And and you just to make it clear how I feel about the political system, this is one of the t-shirts that we sell. All right. >> Got it. >> Here's the back. >> People will like that one. >> Yeah. They call it They call it a I, by the way, I was the assistant to the Secretary of the New York State Senate. I got a picture over here of me when I put on a brunch with Ronald Reagan when I was 30 years old in Chicago. I I I with presidents, prime ministers, and princes. I've been on the other side. It's a freak show and the freaks are running the show. They could care less about We the People. We don't count at all. Everything's owned by the bigs. They run the show. Hey, who's in the government? Oh, look look look at the people in the cabinet. There's no I you got to be rich to be there. You don't got a billion. You don't have a h 100red million. You're not you know get out of here. You're not you're not a member of the club. And again, look at the facts. 10% of Americans are responsible for nearly 50% of all retail spending in America. So again, when you talk about holiday travel going up, look what's really going on. >> It's an interesting point. I mean, the Fed keeps insisting that they can't launch a CBDC without an act on Congress. And and politically, neither party wants to touch it right now. Even national surveys show overwhelming public resistance to these programmable digital dollars. But if it's really imminent, do you think it is kind of coming or or is it the bigger threat that the financial surveillance that we already have? I mean, we already have the banks, the apps, and the payment processors without ever needing a formal CBDC at all. >> First of all, if the people are against it, it doesn't count. >> People don't count. And Congress is just a clown show. They'll do what they're told. It's going to be CBDC's everywhere. Again, it's the future. It's a digitized world. Again, we're talking about AI. What was the latest numbers that came out? Uh they just said about uh MIT about u over 11 million jobs have been lost already for for through AI. >> It's the future and it's just going to be more and more of that. You you look at the you you look at the the the papers. There's no Yeah. This is the This is the cover of Sunday's business section of the New York Times. All right. Once upon a time, there used to be copy there. You open the paper up, it's the same thing. Stupid pictures here. Yeah. Look. Yeah. I did see your take on this. I was watching I was preparing for this show, Gerald, and I watched a little bit of your take. And you're right. I mean, you know, it has taken over. >> Again, it's going to be the people have no idea what's going on. They're not reporting the facts. Again, we forecasted.com bus 2.0. It was the cover of our magazine on February 5th of this year. And now, just in the last month or so, they're starting to talk about, oh, it's way overvalued. Hey, how about this fact? Kit Gold, of course, which I go to every day throughout the day to see what's going on. Great, great site, great information. >> Go back as gold is skyrocketing this year. Again, we only put the facts in. We subscribed to the Wall Street Journal in in the New York Times. Not one word about spiking gold prices for months. >> For months. Not a word. Because gold spiking is telling you how bad things are. It's the world's number one safe haven asset. And one of my books is called Trend Tracking: Far Better Than Mega Trends. Time magazine. I wrote about how I started buying gold in 1978. All right. I've been at this a long time. And there's no comparison to why gold prices are going up now compared to then. >> Mhm. >> Back then, America was number one. Nobody was close to us. Japan had uh uh excuse me, China had a a gross domestic product of about $150 billion. Uh India about 120 billion. United States it was like over five trillion. Over 5 trillion. Now what's China's GDP? Uh about 20 trillion. Oh, you mean they went from 78 they were only 150 billion and now they're 20 trillion. Yeah. Oh, and what else? Yeah. The reality is much of the world has had enough of the United States geopolitical and economic hegemony. They've had it. The bricks control 40% of the world's gross domestic product. 40%. They've had it. There's going to be the death of the dollar. And again, the lower interest rates go, the deeper the dollar falls, the higher gold prices go. And much of the world has had enough. We are not the same country we were in 1978. It's a whole new world. >> I want to get your take on, you know, I mean, we we have analysts on here often talking about the AI bubble saying, okay, Nvidia's a buy today. You know, we have technical analysts on, but we don't get Gerald on very often. So, I got to ask you because there's a full-blown turf war kind of happening. I mean, Nvidia just publicly claimed that it's a generation ahead of Google's AI chips. Alphabet keeps printing new record highs. Valuations are crazy. But underneath that, I wanted to get your opinion on on this cost most people don't see according to the EIA. US residential electricity prices are up 7 and a half% year-over-year driven by part by this powering demand for AI data centers. Is this the ultimate hidden tax? You know, Main Street paying higher utility bills so big tech can justify these valuations. >> Again, they don't care what we pay. And again, they're overbuilding these things. Go back again. We only put the facts down in China is investing hundreds of billions of dollars, Beijing, into the AI field. Hundreds of billions. They're going to take the lead in this. This thing is way overbuilt. You look at the numbers coming out. What What you have uh you know, these companies that they they they borrow they're they're in debt like $500 billion and they're making $20 billion this year. and and and they're never going to be able to pay this debt off and they're overbuilding all of these again. What happened back in January? All of a sudden, we hear of a company you're talking about all these big plants they're building for for chip development. >> A company called Deep Seek. Oh, a Chinese company that said, "No, we don't need those big chips." Oh, no. And and not only that, it didn't cost us $und00 million to do this. It's only cost us six million to do it. They're overinvesting. Trends are born, they grow, they mature, reach old age and die. They're overinvesting in the beginning of AI. These plants that they're building in all of this, it's going to it's it's going back to the dotcom bust when the same thing happened when they started wiring everything because they thought the whole thing was going to boom and you saw those companies that are equivalent to the energy companies today going bust. It's the same thing, different time. >> Yeah. Yeah. Well said. Okay. Well, this brings us I mean, you know, if if AI is the new bubble, the the new 1999, then the flip side is what people run to when the bubble pops, right? I mean, that brings us to gold and silver because these markets aren't trading like we're in a normal cycle, as you just said. I mean, they're trading like investors are already bracing for something big. Gold is above 4150 right now on spot. Silver over $53 as we go to air. These are crisis prices. I mean uh you've said repeatedly that when confidence breaks in tech and the broader economy, the smart money always rotates into hard assets, these real assets. So I mean our gold and silver is signaling that the AI boom is already topping and that capital is quietly preparing for that breakdown you've been warning about. >> No, it's been going up before the AI thing started happening. >> Yeah. >> And and the AI is just going to make it worse. When the markets crash, reality then hits the street and and there's going to be a bust. There's no question about it. the the P ratios are way overvalued in in these high-tech firms and um gold is going up because the world sees what's going on. Again, you got to look at you look at, as I said, Brent crude, what are you talking about? A little over $62 a barrel. >> And and and what are they doing? The OPEC plus companies putting out more more more oil as demand is going down and putting out more supply because they need the money. Look what's going on again in in in in in Japan, the fourth largest economy in a recession, recession numbers. Again, the the GDP was down the third quarter and and Germany, the third largest economy in the world, largest in Europe. Everything is slowing down. It's all artificially being propped up again. The bigs keep getting bigger. Every, by the way, each week in the trends journal, we have it. Big's getting bigger. The merger and acquisition activity is flying way back up again. And again, that all they want is cheap money. And again, if they lower it, again, not my language, look it up. They're talking about why the markets are going up right now because of the confidence that the Fed's going to lower interest rates in December. >> Yeah. >> So, the lower interest rates go, the higher inflation goes, too. >> Yeah. Yeah. >> And again, when you put the real inflation numbers in, you know, they started rigging this in the 80s and the 90s. I talked about housing prices going up 50%. No, we don't do that anymore. We put in other costs that have gone up, so we don't put that number in. They rig the numbers so they don't they're much higher than they are. And and now when when interest rates go down, inflation's going to go higher again. And again, the higher inflation goes, the higher gold prices go. Look, if if bit if cryptocurrencies were in here, gold right now would probably be about $7,000 an ounce. >> That's interesting. What is your outlook for gold going into Q1? You know, we're looking at 2026 here almost. I can't believe to say it, but I mean, we're only a couple months away. I mean, you know, silver already past $53. You called this breakout early. Silver past 50. I mean, is the easy money made or is this just the first inning of a much larger move? >> First inning of a much larger move again. Again, silver is being used from high-tech to heavy industry and everything, >> right? Your computer goes out, your phone goes out, you throw it away. There's no reserves. And it's being used more and more with gold. I got my gold ring over here. If I wanted to melt it down, if I needed the dough, you melt it down. You don't throw it away. >> Mhm. >> So, there's going to be more and more increased demand for silver in heavy industry and high-tech. And again, it's a high-tech world and it's going to keep going up. And again, the major reason why gold prices are high is because gold is the number one safe haven asset. And there are geopolitical and socioeconomic fears around the world. >> Mhm. >> And that's why it's going up. >> Yeah. >> And again, it was totally it's a fact. Everybody could look it up. Not a word about it in the mainstream media as prices was spiking this year. Not a word. >> Yeah. >> Until it got around what $4,200 an ounce or $4,200, excuse me. Then they started say, "Oh, look how high it's gone up." Oh, you're talking about the equity markets going up. How about gold going up? >> Yeah. >> Way much higher than the equity markets. >> Yeah. >> And silver. >> You had to be tuned into here into Kitco News. We've been sitting here talking I feel like for two years. I'm telling you, I go to KitKo every day. Every day. Every day. What you people are putting out is great. You're not getting it anywhere else when it comes what you're putting out in in the Yeah. No, it's I'm serious. And I I do podcasts. I tell them go get go get go. >> Listen, mate. I mean, on on the focus of gold, I mean, these prices aren't moving in a vacuum. A lot of the demand is coming obviously from central banks, sovereign wealth funds in Asia, not just the US investors kind of fleeing tech. Hey, here's a question. I mean, if the dollar's truly dying, we've heard that, right? People say it's dying. We other side says it's still the cleanest shirt in the laundry. Is it dying or or is this more about people hedging against policy mistakes while still relying on the dollar is kind of the global backs stop? >> Again, the the dollar is still number one. There's no question about it. But it keeps going down. >> And again, it's just going to keep going. It's going to I'm telling you again, look at what the bricks say. Look at what China says. Look at what India says. Look at these are Oh, China and India. What do you got the 2.8 billion people when you put them together >> out of 8 billion? They've had enough and they and and there's going to be more and more of of supporting China. There's no question about it. And China's going to as unfortunate again we call it like it is. We say the 20th century was the American century and but the 21st century is going to be the Chinese century. The business of America has been war. The business of China is business. But China went to war when they launched the COVID war on their Chinese Lunar New Year, the year of the rat. Three years of zero COVID policy where they were the strictest. you can't go anywhere, do anything. It destroyed the lives and livelihoods of hundreds of millions of people in China. You have a housing crisis in China that's not going to be fixed again. You look at China's GDP before they got into the World Trade Organization. They officially came in two weeks after 9/11. It's like this and then it shoots up. With every boom, there's a bust. They overbuilt the place. You have not my numbers. You can look it up. There were almost 90 million vacant apartments in China. So, China is pushed itself back with this COVID thing, but they're going to keep moving ahead. And again, you have to make the connections. Look at luxury sales. We write about it every week. They're down in most places. All the luxury sale numbers are down. Why? Because China was the big buyer of luxury goods when their economy was booming. So, these are the kind of things you have to look at. So, now what's China doing more and more of? investing more and more in other countries in in their belt and road initiative. And so that's what they're going to try to do to keep building it up. So there's going to be a level right now. It's things aren't going to boom >> because they created a real horror there by locking the place down for three years. >> Business. >> Yeah, >> I was going to say that because I mean they built real industries. Yes. But their their economy is is you know it's a bit of a mess. I mean this demog this demographic collapse is unprecedented. the property sector seems like it's a bit of a disaster. Uh foreign capital still pulling out. Does the the US still dominate here on this side? And I mean more importantly, I mean going back to what you said, is America losing the economic future because we prioritize war over wealth creation while China built the industries that now run it. >> Absolutely. Again, not my language. It was a cat by the name of Dwight D. Eisenhower, five-star president, Supreme Commander of the Allied forces. He said the military-industrial complex is robbing the nation of the genius of the science scientists, the sweat of the labors and the future of the children. Here we are again. By the way, I launched a movement called Occupy Peace over a decade ago. I had big peace rallies up here in Kingston. Had one in September with Judge Npalitano, Scott Riddick, Dennis Cassinich, Roger Waters did a live broadcast. So, you know, so I I'm not just speaking, you know, empty words. I try to here. Every gun that is made, every warship launched, every rocket fired signifies in the final sense a theft from those who hunger and are not fed, those who are cold and not clothed. The world in arms is not spending money alone. It is spending the sweat of its laborers, the genius of its scientists, the hopes of its children. This is not a way of life at all in any true sense under the clouds of war. It is humanity hanging on a cross of iron. Dwight D. Eisenhower. >> Yeah. Interesting. >> And now again, when I'm talking about gold prices, what's going to happen with Venezuela? Is there going to be a peace deal in in um uh Ukraine? Oh, how about the Middle East? Is there going to be more war against Iran? Again, these are the concerns that people have and these are some of the elements is driving gold prices up. >> Yeah. Yeah. And it keeps us on our feet, I must say, as the news flow continues. Gerald, let's let's go with this. I mean, everything we've talked about, the AI bubble, the dollar strain, the the the debt rules, you know, the housing freeze, this geopolitical shifts is it all points to one thing. It's the setup for for next year for 2026 because the markets may look calm today, but the underlying pressure seems to be building. Let me close on this. I mean, when you look ahead at 2026, what is the single biggest risk that people are not preparing for? Is it a market event, a currency shock, a geopolitical rupture, or something structural that kind of changes the way Americans live and work? >> You know, one of my sayings is when all else fails, they take you to war. >> And you you could Google this up comes from history today, mainstream media. Just Google up Franklin Roosevelt seizes Japanese assets in America. This is during the Great Depression. July 26, 1941. President Franklin Roosevelt seizes all Japanese assets in America. Remember the Great Depression's going on. >> How come? Why? Those Japanese invaded French Indochina. You mean Laos, Cambodian, Vietnam, and you're calling it French Indochina? Why? We're in Algeria. We're in Morocco. We're in a Africa. Oh, this we have the French for our legis. We could do anything we want. Oh, I forgot. Oh, and the British and the Dutch East Indies. Dutch East Indies. What are the Dutch doing in Indonesia? Oh, the same thing the the British are doing where the sun never sets on the British Empire. The three come again, history today, you can look it up. After seizing all Japanese assets in America, what the three the United States, the Dutch, and the British did, they cut off 34 of Japanese foreign trade and 88% of their imported oil. Huh? They only import 100%. And they cut off 88%. Oh, and that's how they make their dough by exporting product to make money. And you cut that off. I can't understand why they bombed Pearl Harbor. Oh, I mentioned about the the.com bust, right? DASD was down 80% before 9/11. Little George Georgie. Bush's ratings were going in the toilet. >> We're in a recession. 9/11 happens. Everybody forgot about it. When all else fails, they take it to war. That's my greatest fear. >> That's interesting. So, we have the same ingredients now, right? Right? I mean a financial system stretched to its limits. Government is unable to fix these structural problems. So let me ask you to the deepest level. I mean are we entering the stage where declining nations including the US use war is not a strategy but is an economic policy for distraction, consolidation, control. Is that what you're saying? >> You got it. Germany again largest economy in Europe. What do you got that guy Merch in there? Oh, they're from Black Rockck. I forgot. Yeah. Him. We're going to borrow a trillion dollars to build up our defense and our infrastructure. A trillion. You're borrowing. You're in a recession. You're borrowing a trillion bucks. Oh. Oh. And it's going to build up our economy. No, it's not. Economies are built up when the products that are produced in the nation are consumed by the people of the nation. This money is just going to the military-industrial complex. And again, we write the facts in the trends journal about how all of these companies in the military-industrial complex are getting a lot richer. So, no, it doesn't go down to the pre to the people. It only goes to the military-industrial complex. And that and they're doing they're doing they're going to do it in in France. They're talking about again they're doing it in Germany. They're talking different countries are building up their military and they're saying this is going to build their economy. It doesn't build the economy. It only enriches the military-industrial complex. >> Interesting. Okay. Because I mean historically wars reset economies, right? When nations had manufacturing power and the national unity and capacity and what have you. We don't have that now. I mean the US is de-industrialized politically fractured. It seems like stretched thin financially as you know. China and Russia seem to have an advantage in hard assets. Europe is weaker than it's been in 70 years. So if war has always been the kind of escape hatch for dying empires, what happens when the empire is too weak to fight the kind of war that resets the system? Do we do we get the war or do we get something worse? That slow grinding collapse from within? >> Once upon a time there was this cat by the name of Albert Einstein who knew a thing or two about the atomic bomb and they asked him what kind be what weapons will be used to fight the third world war. M >> he said, "I don't know, but they'll be using sticks and stones to fight the fourth." >> All right. >> Yeah. >> This is the This is going to be It'll be, you know, there was this article just came out the other day. They had it here somewhere. It was funny article about um where is it here? The um about them finding that here we go. Neanderthalss also kissed a gesture of love that is 21 million years old. A study by Oxford University argues that kissing evolved in the common ances Oh, wait a minute. 21 million years old. They don't How many times has this earth come and gone? 21 million years old. Oh, no. Everything began, you know, 10,000 years ago. I I forgot. Okay. So, we don't have a clue how many what what's happened before. And to me, this is we are in a very dangerous time. As I said, when all else fails, they take it to war. >> Yeah. >> And that's my great concern. >> All right. Well, definitely a bullish scenario for hard assets. Before I let you go here, Gerald, and we appreciate your time, give me a little bit of a an outlook on gold and silver prices. Where do you think these things are going in the next, you know, five months? Again, we as we said, gold has to stabilize above the $4,200 $4,200 an ounce. That's how that's the way we look at it, >> right? >> And once it does, it goes to a new high. >> And it's just going to keep going up. Uh we don't see it going down and it'll stay high. And um you're going to see more and more failures of economies. And the lower economies go, the higher gold prices go. So, we could see gold easily over $5,000 within the next uh maybe five months. It could definitely go above that or even less. And the same with silver is going to keep going up. So, we're very positive on both of them. And as for the as for the Bitcoin, again, we only put the facts down. >> Um the Trump administration's very heavily invested in it. and his kids, the the Lutniks, the Witoff's kids, his cabinet members, and um they got he got over hund00 million from the crypto people when he ran for office. He got tens of millions of dollars when he got inaugurated from them. Had big parties with them. Uh again, it's one big club and you ain't in it. They're going to do everything they can to keep keep the prices high. And again, we only go by the facts. Put them down word for word. how Donald Trump could not stand Bitcoin back in 2020 and 2021 and now he wants to make America the crypto capital of the world. So again, it's the bottom line. >> Yeah. >> And you got >> So it's not going to zero. You're saying it's not going to zero here. I mean, I was surprised it's sitting around. >> They're going to do everything they can to keep pushing the price up. They're invested heavily in it >> and look what they're doing. I mean, they're doing deals now. Trump Towers in what? Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, Qatar. I mean, look what they're going on for. They gave Jared Kushner's son-in-law is uh Saudi Arabia $2 billion for his new firm that he developed. Again, you know, they're going to do everything they can to keep the prices up. That's the way we see it. >> Yeah. Yeah. >> But here's the other side of it. When the crypto markets began, it was really generated by the younger generations. >> And now they don't have the dough that they used to have to keep it going. >> Yeah, >> that's the very important point. And again, when we're look, you got to look at the elections that are going on. Again, you you look at the elections that just happened with with Virginia, with New Jersey, uh Seattle, Washington, about how these very very again, not whether you like them, dislike them, what is very leftist one because the people are so desperate. So again, the younger people are the ones that really popped up the the the crypto markets and now they don't have the dough to keep going because they don't have the jobs that they used to have. And again, the firing numbers are coming out. How many people are getting laid off and how few jobs are being created? Oh, this is this is extremely important. Look at the jobs that are being created. Where are they in the healthc care >> service sector and hospitality sectors? Jobs that pay nothing. That's the vast majority of the jobs. You could look it up. The numbers are there. So, going back to the the cryptos, it's it was a young people's invention and they don't have the dough to keep it going. But then we got to see what the Trump guys are going to do to keep it going. >> Yeah. Yeah. Interesting. A hell of a way to start 2026, my friend. We'll have you on uh in the first quarter for a little update here. Of course, always direct and always compelling. Uh Gerald Sente joining us now with this week's Trends Journal cover, I should say, is also going to be linked in our bio. It's great to see you. Thanks again for making the time. >> Oh, thank you for having me and thank you for all that you do. >> Yeah, appreciate it. Thanks, Gerald. Have a great one and uh happy Thanksgiving over there. >> Same to you. >> Cheers. And I want to thank you for watching. Now, markets continue to be rising here, but the underlying data is flashing caution. Now, we'll stay right here on it at Kitco News. I'm Jeremy Saffron. Be sure to hit subscribe and stay with us. >> >> Heat. Heat.